Member Info for bangrak

This is a play on RH prices it's the main driver ..........The average price of Rhodium (main contributor of profit) during that 12m reporting period using the monthly averages across 4 exchanges from JMT was $13.1k, the gross basket was $2k as reported today.

The average RH price since the start of the new financial year is $4.1k and has flatlined

There is no indication RH is in short supply EV penetration in china was 20%+

Any idea what the net profit currently is using 4.1k rh?

I think you need to do some maths.........wait for Q1, Q3/4 gave you an indication

You need a much higher & sustained RH price here.

Golden Cross & now confirmation Saudi will extend cuts to the end of the year, the clear aim is $100 oil.

Assume they did this $100m adds about 17m shares, 22m u, and cash to $45m so nav 488p but 2025+ u 64 and rising so 528p nav. Interesting LT hold with steady gains and trading opportunities. Not wow but good.

Based on September.... 20.16 u3 @ $59 (average futures next 12m) plus cash of $15m after purchase ($66m) gives NAV of 4.72p a share (202m shares), that looks like where it stopped. Not sure where the 20% discount to NAV is coming from? 10% or so less NAV is a decent trading opportunity but as someone has highlighted, certainly another placing coming soon, and with futures looking healthy probably better to make it larger say $100m+. Descent LT gains here.

Not you Mr. F. but I'm highlighting how it works to the 10p shell......30 minutes later to my post, options traders now eye up $90-100 oil..........charts mean as much if not more than fundamentals. A Golden cross in oil usually means at least 6-12 months of uptrend.

Mr F, Brent chart downtrend March June 2022 line, bots will see this & the golden cross about to happen & trade upwards. Good luck with 10p idea on this break.

Target price across 3 brokers 41p (36/55/32) i have 37p. Net cash is expected to be $12m this year, $50m 2024 & $80m 2025.

"Today’s statement also mentions that Arrow now believes it could drill up to 21 wells on Carrizales Norte. The majority of these would focus on the Ubaque reservoir, with an expectation of a consistently thick pay zone of 100ft. This is the first time we can remember seeing this 21 well number, which is quite a lot larger than we had expected, and ties in with Arrow initially reporting on the CN-1 well that data gathered could mean reserves materially above expectations"

Remains a clear 100% here for me and Brent is about to "golden cross" floor seems to have been identified

The net is $41.4m split into H1 $32m with much higher RH prices & H2 9m with lower but still higher than now RH prices. The market should have done this maths already and worked out the average cost oz is $1056 and net basket now is not much different from this so those results are history, very little profit here. Q1 this year is when you will see the effects of $4k rh. Check profits in 2019 when the basket was similar but costs were $200 oz lower.

The coal is sold at a 5% discount to spot & TGA's effective ownership is 63.75%, not sure you have accounted for this in the numbers below.

Since the continued drop to 3 april after 700 days of declines shaking everyone out the vwap from that point is 14p, I'm concentrating on adding below that and to a base of 11.75p hence the 12p comment earlier and gain i feel is available.

Trading systems crashing support & pre results shakeout it looks to me, just had the same with Costain. I'm a buyer it entered the 80-100% gain around 12p. Unless something unusual comes out next i suspect it shoot up after the results.

TTF is down to 30e due to the strike agreement this will have an impact on coal prices short term.

I've just read the broker note, one of the interesting points they make is this...Improving the margin as planned would make the expected earnings per share 23p on 2023 earnings so assuming an industry-standard per in construction and engineering of about 8.7 (to keep it simple) and totally ignoring the 48p in cash, quite a bit more than I estimated previously is possible here with patience. I hold a fair bit now after the last few weeks battling with trading systems, possibly its turned a corner.

Considering its piers like Kier or Keller who trade on pe of 4-6 with lower operating margins and high net debt it looks cheap.

Conside

Share Price 48p

Market cap £132m

revenue of £664.4m (H1 22: £665.2m).

operating profit increase of 7.1% to £15.0m

Net cash at half year to £132.1m (FY 22: £123.8m, H1 22: £95.9m). (48p a share)

Resumption of dividend payments being progressed.

basic eps 4.4p

Free cash flow2 in H1 23 of £26.5m     

Good visibility for FY23 with 90% of revenue (£630m+) secured3 for H2 23.

On track to meet adjusted operating margin milestones run-rate of 3.5% during the course of FY24 and 4.5% during the course of FY25.

Net profit £12m

Has to be 70p+ surely considering everything.

I disagree it's not obvious, it's what some want to think without exploring all the possibilities, professional investors are not stupid they don't drag things down and sell at oversold situations with small £4-5k sales occasionally through the day. The selling if it's done is done gradually over many months and at much higher levels to keep the momentum. Professional investors are likely to use alternative funds to do this and they need to report holdings. Took me a while to build up a decent position in RRE a few years ago, all i read at 500p was this talk about a seller and how it was depressing prices, many forgot about those 500p days when it came back from RTO at 1800-2000p. Traders and supposed warrant sellers have floors, i know where this floor is now.

Pre-close statement June. The Group had a net cash position of R14.0 billion on 31 May 2023. The Group expects to pay taxes and royalties of approximately R1.0 billion relating to H1 2023 in June 2023. (so down to 13m)

Today it reports cash at 13.5b so it's added about 500m rand in cash in 1 month, that’s £20m (my sheet says cash build £17.5m pm as i included the tax, and I'm $119t currently for rb for next 12m so say £500k- being added daily at current fx, 82 days on cash plus cash = £609m . My figures give me a running profit now of 5.2b. I'm not spot on but i think I'm close, its good value IMHO.

JA the results were based on 135 rb coal as stated in the pre-close statement (Benchmark price reference for 6,000kcal/kg thermal coal exported from the Richards Bay Coal Terminal) if i put 135 into my spreadsheet now it does the maths & i get 5.9b profit 2x the half as reported today so v similar, I'm using 119 (average of 4 futures price for RB coal for next 12 mts 3mth gap) gives me the figures below. 3b rand half-year profit on $137 is currently 5.1b yearly on $119. Results today are half-year 1 2023 not FY.

Gas is used less as a fuel at 40 euro pwmh as power station switch to coal, TTF is 40 and futures indicate higher in winter @ 56euro, demand for coal & prices will follow shortly so will profits/cash so will SP.