Member Info for bangrak

Market cap £746m

Currently making about 5.2b rand or £213m profit at current prices 119

PER reported 2.96, now about 3.54 but cash adjusted PER is 0.69 (cheap)

Net cash today now about £609m or 442p ps after june tax

Half year dividend 41p so 14-15% dividend return yearly on lower coal.

Cash will be same as market cap in 10 months before any additional spending.

last day for divvy 20 sep

ex dividend date 21 sep

divvy paid 9 october

Short 3700-3800 (technical) medium 4200-4800. Im out today with chart stuff mainly but will re-enter early 3000.

SCB with respect to you...Coal is the predominant energy source to keep the lights on in this world 35% actually, that means without it what you are doing right now is not possible, it's also used more when TTF reaches 40 euros as its cheaper. Its used in the production of steel which ironically is the main green transition metal. In India coal provides 74% of the electricity, by now you should understand that Mr Patel living in a suburb of India wants another air con unit and he and his family are not really fussed (right now) about pollution, they want power. Suggesting that coal is not a good place to invest or suggesting that a company that produces 11.6 tons at a price of $100-115 (15-18% discount to be applied) and provides the SA electricity company with coal to keep the lights on, that has about £583m in cash (last results plus above profit added daily) and a net profit of £210m at above ranges will hit lows of 100p is probably viewed by some as very inexperienced? The current cash per share is 424p. Your best course of action, if you want to appear a bit smart, is not to plagiarise a journalist's note but to focus on the actual PE (not cash adjusted) and pick some overvaluation in that v industry. 3.77 now, it will probably be torn to pieces by the cash adjustment by others. With TTF flirting with 40euros have I painted a clear picture of why your posts might come across as very poor to some and that many people in this one do lots of research?

LN $30m of chrome production does the same to the top line as RH going from its current $4k to $8k. Both brokers seem to be using $13k in calculations for RH in their estimations but Liberum in its price deck is stating a $4k LT price for RH. I suggest any broker using a price 225% above its current price for next year and then saying it will drop to $4k is producing unrealistic figures. If an analyst was using $282 for oil I would laugh RH needs to rise substantially but at this point are producers just stockpiling? I would steer clear of PGM's and look at gas coal oil for winter then keep an eye on RH breaking its 50 day AND more importantly definite signs that RH is in deficit. I cannot see much happening in PGMs for 6m.

Perhaps have a look at the broker forecasts for dividends they tell you all of this, not that they are necessarily correct. As it stands right now consensus (2 brokers) is 4c dividend and net of $24m 2024. Strangely by sheer luck and absolute guesswork being wrong at every turn that ties in with the 6m a quarter I said was expected a few weeks ago. Perhaps run it on a 20 day support and get out on a 20-day reversal, that's why i would do.

The order book was weak late yesterday, I've usually got an order in that gets filled every few days but each time I bump it up during trading it's automatically jumped by a trading system unless it's first thing, that says all I need to know about who is after this one. The book was weak several punters were not on it first thing hence the drop then recovery.

At today's date using $100-115t RB coal prices the company has around $742m/£581m using today's FX rates which is 423p per share possibly more as my figure includes all discounts and taxes, current net profits are about £206m (using the above assumptions) eps, therefore, 150p cash plus 1 years earnings is 573p. In 14 months cash will be the current cap. One thing to remember is there are decom liabilities but even removing them from the cash pile down the line (3yrs) cash is 675p. For me it's not as attractive as it was at 500p several years ago when i first invested but its got some serious money that it doesnt need.

2025+ net profit using 72k oz 200k ore and current prices will be $53.9m (my sheet) broker in the latest note has $53.9 never been closer in 3 years. I would say 80-95p fair target unless spot prices change. Gain of 26%. PGM prices need to go up or you are left with the traders pumping it up and selling it off this is a range trade to 90p. Don't be the fool getting sucked in at 90p. Blind Tiger, I've been spot on all the way since I called this a buy at 35p with 100% gain after covid and £400k stake, mulder you go ahead if you think 26% is great. I make 64% YOY so that's all that matters and I walked out of finance at 40 being able to make decent money myself NOT being wrong at every turn. I will keep posting anywhere i like and about anything I chose, if you want fluff then block me. You need a 50% gain possibility here to get a larger PI involved, THS is further down the line on "diversification"

RSI 43+ MACD 0+ break, support on 20d, 50d break, just south of a 3m point of control, well supported on anchored VWAP from 13th july........bots love this they will trade this up now.

As i mentioned before, most power stations begin to use coal as a cheaper alternative globally when TTF passes 40 euros, this is your trigger look at TTF today...cash plus 1yrs eps is 570p

I'm struggling to understand if that deal was inked way before prices collapsed, Starting in 2025 paying $32m for a 10-year but 17yr max term if extended/negotiated for an extra 6500 0z plus some chrome. Payback in 3 years it says, using long-term consensus pricing (broker says $5k RH so what is the consensus used why hide this). Remember there is very little profit on the net basket as it stands, so why pay $32m for an extra 6500oz, what's the other party putting in......"expertise"

Just read the final of the 3 notes, for those without access this is the consensus of the 3.

Production 2023 3030, 2024 4441, Cash 2024 $44.3m. TP 39.3p.

My calculations as stated were based on an annualization of the last quarter's profit my figure was correct. However, In the last 2 quarters, this has produced a net profit of $9.24m USD. It has done this during higher spot prices than now. Even if you use a 2x this as an indication going forward with no signs of RH rising to $10k immediately it is $18.48m (eps 5.4p) it has $125m in cash USD. It has 263m shares, USD 1.28. Cash per share is 36p. SP is say 70p. 6.29. However, if you want to use much higher spot prices than exist so you get bigger numbers then that's up to you. Currently, right now profit is $15m at these low spot prices. Look back at 2019 for when RH was $4k and see the net profit ($18m) the costs then were $600oz not $1000 maybe read the note from the brokers now downgrading to 110p from 170p as i said. Thanks at least for coming back with something rather than "this is cheap" or "we are so undervalued" the discussion will enable people who don't do this for a living to benefit from the healthy debate and im always looking to improve. I don't read tipster's comments who own those shares themselves, as i am friends with CM another financial journalist in London, i know the ropes.

Rex, Glass manufacturers sold their Rh and found substitutes due to high cost, it's all in JM report in May which created a surplus for 2023 it was posted but overlooked I suppose as it's not fluffy warm nice stuff........ This has 36p in cash the eps on those quarterlies ($3.1m) annualized was 3.7p....... SP - cash ps / eps is cash adjusted 9 not 4.

Canaccord note out with revised production 3003 for 23 and 4950 for 24, net cash $48m in 2024. Takes the mean from 4 brokers (3 before this update) to 3003 and 4457...... GC TP 39p, Im at 36p myself. Current pe about 2.8.....I guess looking at reaction there are more networks & chartists here than lone fundamentalists, that's usually the way the 100% begin. A couple of years and cash will be more than the cap now. Let them do their thing mistakes are made both ends.

FWIW.....Update via my Geologist friend in Oman having asked him to read the rns, I'm just a numbers man ........To drill > 9000ft in less than 9 days is remarkable, and 4 Darcy sandstone is as high as I have ever seen anywhere, Darcy reservoir is pretty unique it is normally 2 orders of magnitude less, this is a dream well, they wouldn’t have had any idea of well potential till near the end of well drilling, so probably after 20th June.

Ive read it all now........How exactly do you get cash adjusted 4 on that quarterly profit of $3.1m?

Calculate the numbers and be patient, now the second largest holding for me after the last few days. Its a grower in many ways.

Is this the recession that has been coming for 2 years but then was revised into a slowdown to avoid the embarrassment to highly educated but data-driven academics who have ranted about it endlessly?

IMF doesn't agree

Growth in the United Kingdom is projected to decline from 4.1 percent in 2022 to 0.4 percent in 2023, then rise to 1.0 percent in 2024. This is an upward revision of 0.7 percentage points for 2023, reflecting stronger-than-expected consumption and investment from the confidence effects of falling energy prices, lower post-Brexit uncertainty (following the Windsor Framework agreement), and a resilient financial sector as the March global banking stress dissipates.

Isnt one...Prill split is 52% PL 17% PAL 9% RH 5% IR 17% ru and a tiny bit of gold. Spot prices for all the metals are online. This gives the gross basket but SLP has a net basket which is net of a number of costs (mentioned in results) Gross to net i have found to be around 25%. Using today's spots your net basket is around $1047....AIC was $1007...........this is why they are protecting cash. Unless Rh goes up it's not making much, this will be apparent in quarters capturing June onwards when Rh averaged sub 5k. The next quarter to be published is still using $7k rh.