Member Info for bangrak

Averaging $319t for the next year or a profit of £2.5m a day giving this a current pe of 2.34 with huge sums of cash to distribute. The broker did base value last year on $150t so he was way out. Whilst the price has caught up a bit and tends to trade in a nice tradable pattern, there are some similarities in a number of gas producers. NBP is now 544p for the year ahead, and many brokers providing reports on gas producers are still using 120-170p, there are sure to be some huge discrepancies in broker to actual profits like there was here.. Gas is set to remain above 200p until 2026 as it stands today.

Very simple.....you want to make money then invest into what's causing all these huge energy issues, for the last 6 m all I've read was XYZ wont make money or ABC expects huge costs due to high energy prices.......come back to this when huge energy is not huge energy and china has forced it population by gun point to buy 4 houses each.

Maybe read the Heraeus report, which says pretty much what I said last week which was then shot down as comments idiots would make. Well done.

bonkers....http://www.idexonline.com/diamond_prices_index

Broker expects another similar but slightly higher dividend with YE results. 4 weeks of deep research into this last year told me I would get my initial investment back in a dividend and probably double my money on SP rise but double your money back in dividend and a 350% return on top is quite satisfactory. Always trust the figures on your screen if you know what you're doing, and get out asap if it goes wrong. I still think a few analysts are a bit light on this, even with extra costs factored in and using an average coal price of $292 (12mth average RB) it's still making £2.2m a day.

So the Chinese Automobile industry issues its monthly report (not blinkered opinion) on actual vehicle sales in CHINA the biggest player by far.
The car industry in CHINA is the largest consumer of two of your biggest contributors to basket & SP, what it does and will do matters to PGM's.
There are stats that clearly show trends (not opinions) if you care to drill down.
The more ICE vehicles that are sold means more demand for PGM's but this has to be an increase on what is expected or supply = demand and no huge rises in Rh. (2020 covid demand exceeds supply Rh $29k SLP 150p)
More ICE demand means higher prices
Potential higher demand shown in data for ICE growth means fund managers are interested in growth.
24% of all vehicles being sold are now NEV up some 115%
However, you quickly decide to say this data shows nothing, its an opinion, without even looking at it, and a logical assumption is made by me that if the largest buyer of vehicles by far and the controller of many Rare Earths is buying 24% NEV it clearly shows a trend in what they are actually doing backed by the CCP incentives, and an investment into something not fitting with that might not be attractive & make you rich and MIGHT explain why this isn't moving.

And here are the latest CAAM results. Essential reading as this tells you what is going on and what will happen to PGM prices.

2.42m vehicles sold in July -3.3% mom, but up 29.7% on july 2021
14.47m sold Jan-July -2% yoy
24% sold in July were NEV 115-117% up yoy

Irrespective of what you think, you need to consider what the masse (inc funds) believe or will believe, as that drives your volumes and prices.

Helped along by a few old names I think just sat back waiting for the right time.

And it's important to fully understand that in 2020 after covid there was a shortage, mines were struggling to ship it out, and the Chinese wanted lots of it as they were frantically buying cars rather than traveling together. Prices will go up and down but have we seen $200 oil as predcite

warnings have been given....look at op costs +42%, look at CEO comments, and also have a look at gas futures until April 2025. Results should say loud and clear this is an industry to avoid in the EU for now.

I'm not worried I just think you're missing something. Ok assume they don't and they all carry on buying cars....The trend of vehicle sales in china has declined yearly since 2018 from 30m. Jan-June 2020 10.25m vehicles had been sold 3.8% of those were new energy vehicles. In the same period in 2021, 12.89m were sold, and 9% were NEV. This year 12.05m were sold and 21% were NEV. (info from CAAM site) As I said before my friend has just ended his contract building plants for BMW in China and in his words "it's all-electric now" clearly it's not as 79% was ICE but the trend is there to see. You won't get many institutions wanting to get into an industry that is manufacturing something that is in a decline. However, if something goes wrong in this green energy transition (as it has with oil gas, and coal in the last year) the price could rocket if there are not enough minerals to make batteries and more cat converters are needed. This is a bet on Rhodium, there is no deficit now like 2020-21.

Oddly i was just thinking this after reviewing the various RB coal charts, there has been 7-8% drops daily on the futures next year indicating the situation might have eased by then, is someone expecting the war to be over?. Oil has now dropped on some dubious data about gas sales in the US or is that linked to an expectation the regime will be toppled?. I'm now working on a realistic price of $150-200 looking 1yr ahead that brings down my target 1yr+ with a safe bottom of 900-1000p. People don't generally fight to buy shares in companies where the commodity price is easing. Superb dividend to come but has it peaked? BTW you can see winter prices on futures so no need to guess.

Stoo. The SP is struggling at the level I said to watch a few weeks ago, I know why this is happening, and I've explained this.

There is a global recession about to happen triggered by high energy costs originating in the EU, but it will spread as all economies are linked, many people/businesses will struggle to pay bills, strikes likely, and discretionary spending will be cut back, among other items like Holidays, Nightclubs, Gym memberships (and Personal trainers I'm afraid ;)), cars are usually not bought. When Rh is used mainly in cat converters for ICE vehicles mostly in China, what upshot could there be for Rh considering these events and its contribution to the profits here minus high smelting costs?

Interesting one this....futures now indicating NBP 400p+ for next 12m and 200p+ until April 2024. But the analysts covering IOG seem to be using about 120p between them. Been in this position several times before with conservative analysts and in every case, it was exceptionally profitable. Large sellers are very welcome here...

I'm working on a price of $286-350 being the range for the next 12-24 months. NBP Gas is now priced to remain high (over 200p) until April 2025, this ensures coal prices will be well supported. $93 oil allows RB coal to still be attractive as a source of fuel at $276t. Thoughts of winter start to come back soon unless you live somewhere where winter means it might hit 24 at night, no fans on and windows closed occasionally.

A few months ago several people inc myself were fans of the 200p NBP despite analysts using 80p. Looking forward 400p is now popping up each day on one of my many spreadsheets that links into all the futures for the year ahead. Any idea what 400p gives SQZ in daily profits? if not you should, before you even think about thinking about offers.

"You cant make spectacular returns from big companies"

Someone gave me the heads up on TGA last year with a simple "have a look at this" I had some shares given free from when anglo split them off, after looking at it for days I was thinking it looks too big to be a 100% riser but that's what it did and more, now its on another leg up shooting up like an illiquid share but liquidity is great. I think THS looks really good value but I've sat about waiting for weeks before and it's just not moved. Kenmare is another I think looks great but in the same boat as this, FA movement, instutution killing rises.

Go here to capture average historical pe ratios https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/SLP/sylvania-platinum-limited/fundamentals (5.26). look at this year's results from the last 4 quarters and work out PE ratio for this year (almost exactly the same) Therefore if you can work out the profit using the basket on a daily/quarterly basis then you can work out where this will go. On Rh at $16k this SP is about right. Watch Rh wait until it passes the 200 day then have a look again but what did Heraeus say about the surplus in Rh?

can you explain where you get $3000 from on the latest prill split and what prices are you using, I'm a few million off what they actually did and my sheet allows for a 27% gross to net basket.

Net basket $1804, gross basket quoted as $2589, 30% difference mentioned before that you need to deduct from your calculations. Talk of $3000 baskets is quite a long way out.