Member Info for bangrak

During the next 20 yrs, will need 100% more electricity but the path towards that is supposedly “green energy” but the reality doesn’t look possible without burning more fossil fuels and driving up their prices. Countries are reducing the investment into the mining and burning of coal and moving to gas, which is creating substantial price rises in coal/gas as the reality is that many countries like India use coal to generate 70% of their electricity. “Gas bills will become permanently higher because of the move away from fossil fuels” the governor of the Bank of England has said.
The metals/magnets needed in wind turbines mostly come from China and because they are classed as rare earth minerals they are controlled. China and Russia are now banning exports of some metals. People are hoarding gas and coal. Some car manufacturers are stopping ICE after 2030 going fully electric. There is 3x the copper in an electric car to an ICE. A 1m stretch of cable coming off a wind turbine has 50kg of copper in it. For the next few years, Gas Coal Copper Oil Nickel are the places to be IMHO. It's about watching what countries do and not what they say, this green energy theme isn't going to happen, we will damage this planet beyond repair before this happens, sad but true, look at the volume of coal being burned in China now.

Bangrak's deserted beach house fund has 0.13%, a global fund that moves with you as you escape the winters to ensure you always wake to a blue sky. Good business this, ticking all the boxes ATM really impressive dividend, its certainly benefitting me and done me another double in under a year.

£41m eps 15p could say x4/5 then add cash 36p so about 103p, that's what it should be using the historical valuations you (market) have given. Not really astounding value just about ok where it is. Surely gas coal oil and copper are a better bet for the next 6mths whilst the chips are down?

SLP sole broker downgrades as discussed would happen, impossible for this year to be better than last, SLP refuses to issue an RNS stating mining life longer but tells Edison in the toilet, THS release regulatory RNS adding to open mine life. Interesting

Using $125t/ $115 6m/ $96 12m price and running the 12m price over Y3-5 as coal supplies are squeezed, this appears to be generating around £994m in profits over a 5yr term. I've got cash at £588m in 2023 and the broker has $800 so it's very similar. 30% paid out in dividends = £298m or £2.19 a share back. Leaving a net figure of £527m when you add in the £148m given to them by AA and knock off the $433m or £316m Environmental restoration & decommissioning provision as of Dec 20. Looks like they will be swimming in cash so the expectation would be a larger payout/buyback. Interesting to read Q figures.

Not a holder anymore, in fact almost entirely cash at present, but always like to check on some old winners......One unique comment in that rather plagiarised report was the mine life/tailings....this hasn't been said officially in an RNS but "management" has said it to Edison while doing whiskey shots one Friday.

SLP, if you believe that the life here goes on beyond 10ish years then put it in an RNS with a probable. If you won't then it's crazy Edison using a 20-year term in the cashflow forecasts to arrive at a target price based on something someone said in the toilet of a bar or something like.

Tony Alves did something similar with another gas one in Russia I recall, Cadogan possibly, send him a message tell him what you think of his efforts here to mug you 07842 884342. As far as I'm concerned JKX has been one of the most P*ss poor pi companies out there, I had 1% a while ago, got irritated with 2pm RNS and a total lack of interest in addressing some questions. Been robbed here, issued this news just at the price was heading back up. Top 5 are in on this it will go ahead.

China has tried to curb price rises with words on many commodities and failed, why would coal be any different? Richards Bay next contract is $225t, April $158t, Oct 22 $119t. EPS here is £3 at current prices and £1.65 on Oct 22, current PE 1.3 & 2.45. 30% paid out as dividend, company has way too much cash even considering the decom costs. Buyback or special divvy is almost certain.

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/coal/coal-api-4-fob-richards-bay-argus-mccloskey.html

Are you sure? Ben has now reduced the EPS down 15% to 38c this week, so the broker report only issued last month expecting more profit and more free cash looks to be well off the mark just like we said it would be. Using the last 3 months' prices (FYTD) EPS will be nearer to 32c or 23p and I do not see Rh rising much, Pal chart looks weak, all PGM's sub 200 day. The chip situation is not expected to ease until Q2 2022 and this inflation business is biting into everyone. Gas and Coal are the places to be right now and through winter, everyone ditched coal like they did Rhodium (it's boring & not needed going forward) now they need it desperately with the price driven up over $200+ a ton and $150+ on June 22 futures. Copper looks lifeless but ok for $4.20. SLP is fair value at 86-102p IMHO the lower being at today's prices the upper based on the last 3 months (FTYD). The moment china starts making lots of cars again, the price of RH rises above $15-16k then it's very likely game on here again and more so over on THS, but it's not going to be 2020 again. 2020 was for Rh what 2021-22 is for gas & coal.

Look back to Rh prices 1 year ago now, you will see they are very similar. The corresponding Q results at that time with lower expenses due to higher electric prices now gave a NPAT of $21m, cash went up from $55.9m to $60.9m, the SP was around 59p. Assuming these PGM prices level off as analysts predict due to chip, it makes it a profit of around $80m and EPS of 19p which was said last week calculated the long way, makes ST, & the broker look way off the mark. You "the market" gives this a 4-5x rating, so it's sat and has stopped at present at 86p for a reason possibly, not sure where 140p is coming from by December with what I see. As someone said a good 10-12% in and out possibly but sat waiting for 140p-200p I'm not sure.

https://www.heraeus.com/media/media/hpm/doc_hpm/precious_metal_update/palladium_standard/HPM_-_The_Palladium_Standard_2021.pdf#msdynttrid=oCHhpb_riwx9TU0xuY67p-IpJMiZz3NJclsc8yuInxc

All read before 8.30 am. Pages 43-45 are interesting, it's advisable to read this. I'm not sure Heraeus know what they are talking about, they expected Rh to remain high (but not $100k like ben) but now forecast the next 6 months for the average to be $13k with an actual surplus of 30k oz, so no RH deficit anymore, this is important to understand if you don't want to end up like markinvestor constantly losing money buying into lowering profits trusting tardy broker revisions. So on flat 70k production with much lower basket prices like SLP said, will you be getting huge $100m free cashflows and $120+m net profits and 44c eps? Some targets really do need to be revised here and the broker needs to be realistic, he is losing credibility maintaining these forecasts, there is a possibility of this comfortably generating $78m net, worth about 92p plus the cash but no more than this.

According to a report from IHS Markit. The report projects that semiconductor shortages across the automotive sector will extend into the first quarter of 2022, and possibly into the second.

https://www.scmp.com/tech/tech-trends/article/3148576/chip-shortage-will-drag-some-time-chinese-ministry-warns-country

Last year Ben at the brokers predicted $100k was possible on Rh in his dissecting the bear case for RH 29th Jan 21 i think it was. Heraeus said it would stay high, ST thinks it's worth 200p, and the broker still has an EPS, cashflow, and net profit way higher than 2021 when the company says "lower prices" and we are 3 mths in with Rh today at $12k. DYOR is the only way. There could be a squeeze next year when production picks up and outstrips supply, that is the time to go big IMHO not now. PGM's are not looking great, but timing your entry into things that don't look great brings the greatest rewards. Good luck with your decision.

Results as expected. During the last FY, Rh averaged around $18k with a spike to $29k caused by flooded mines, china bouncing back, and general covid disruption. The first 3 months of this FY it has remained around $18k, we now have the chip situation and generally more PGM’s available.

In the results, SLP say they made an extra $50m cash, production will be flat again at 70k and they don’t think PGM prices will be as high, exact words are “we are expecting PGM prices to remain healthy during FY2022, although not necessarily at the levels experienced during the past year”

However the broker note suggests sales will be $32m higher, the cash position will increase by $103m, and an extra $23m net profit. Off the back of this broker note alone, it looks cheap. But there is going to have to be quite a arise in Rh to achieve these predictions as we are already a quarter way in.

Whilst the technology team at the broker says they feel the chip situation will peak in september, you have Pat Gelsinger, CEO of chipmaker Intel warning last few weeks that the worst of the shortage is yet to come and that it would be “a year or two” before supplies return to normal. I wonder if the broker has got it right and if the company has much contact with him, they seem to contradict. To me, as it stands, it looks like 2022 will be on a par with 2021 mainly due to extra costs, we all can see gas oil and other commodities are rising. Vehicle production results from china are due this weekend but it’s predicted there will be a 16% decline yoy.

It’s easy to say this is undervalued and it's worth 200p just because someone who writes articles says so or a broker does but you have to trust your own research and apply logic on what you see. It's definitely not expensive but I cannot see the market driving this to 200p without a rise in Rh to 25k+ within 3-4 months. One for the traders now.

The 4 quarters gives $97.3m PAT, EPS 36c, cash up $55.9 to $101m with dividends paid.
Max SP price paid 150p = max PER 5.76. 5 yr pe ratio average 5.26. During FY Rhodium averaged $18.91k if you use http://www.platinum.matthey.com/prices/price-tables# & the July 20-June 21 averages. Rh for the last 3 months averaged $18.14k.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/SLP/sylvania-platinum-limited/fundamentals

then click ratios

English patient, who said anything about forward PE. SLP has traded on an average PE ratio (not forward PE) of 5.26 on average over 5 years based on figures provided by the London stock exchange. Unless they do something with the cash, in about 9 years there isn't a lot left to grind up again and remove, life ends in 9 years without doing something that costs money and profits, do you think with a limited life like that that the market will give this a high PE ratio? Forward PE ratios are based on what just one analyst thinks of future profits and he is guessing RH which ranges from 6000-29,000 in just over a year. There is a possibility of 140p+ here as it stands as i don't think the majority cares about the DCF calculations 177p or cash pile. This is about to release results that many know already so people are buying and the shift will bring in technical traders watching the down trend which DGAFF about valuations. YTD RH is $22.5k, its average for the last 3 months has been $18.2k. On this $18.2k Rh and using an average of the last 3 months for the rest i get a profit of $104m eps 38c or 27p so 140p+ current PE ratio 3.58.

The london stock exchange site under fundamentals and ratios gives you the last 5 years PE ratios, for SLP it's 5.26, that's what you folks have decided over quite a few years so that's what i use. I see no reason to use more, it's SA its mine life is limited, even the TTM is 5.47. Not my rules these are yours. eps today 25-28p target 5.26x that.

Guvvi, historical PE ratio over the last 5 yrs has been 5.26 (using info from london stock exchange site) TTM 5.22 so I'm applying 5.24 to my net of $97m on RH of $17k to give me 136p, if you use the YTD prices (RH $23.1) i get $124m or 174p. As said previously, you need RH to be well above £22k to be looking at top corner 200p unless they do something with this cash pile. The divvy is ok but you can get 12% with Evraz of FXPO. Bit of a trader's one now for a while.

Even if you strip out the entire Rh production figures from the calculations you struggle to justify this current price, to get to a 110p fair value using historical pe ratios I've had to reduce Rh to minus $8k. TNAV is 113p, it's a solid buy here. Message to Tharisa, perhaps you need to engage a PI friendly broker like SLP does, having 6 brokers that don't make their research available on platforms like research tree is a big reason why you are lagging. Also, you need to seriously consider a buyback at these prices. There is a 100% gain here on an undemanding valuation.......that doesn't happen very often.

They had $101m at 4th Q results that's £75m. At 90p the BOD should be buying back shares as opposed to buying back shares at 130p from employees. Why not wait until there is a definite rise here, falling knife, catching, and all that stuff?