Member Info for bangrak

Its estimated that China only has a 2mth supply of copper in storage anyway so I would call their bluff if I was running a copper outfit similar OPEC. They wanted the price down to a range of $3.94 - $4.37 with $4.1 being the point of control on a 6 mth view. $4.5 is too high for them I've been watching the media this way and asking about it amongst some people trading in Singapore. Looking at this range with $2.55 aisc, I see a profit of £124m here and an EPS of 65-70p. Great this metals dip. it's throwing everyone off their balance.

Markinvestor you are a fool, I bought 1m SLP shares at 38p last year, i still have all my free shares as I top sliced at 80p, who was invested in bushveld minerals when the price of Vanadium was falling and brokers were revising eps down to zero whilst at the same time posting "I had a dream I sold £15 of my shares and then woke up" . You need to read the latest Heraeus report which now says exactly what I said in my post last month about Rh which you didn't like when I pointed out Rh was falling. Lad when you have something constructive and well researched to say please come back, i know at any given moment what these are all worth along with all the other companies I'm in. THS is making more profit than SLP, you can look at the accounts, but you wont and its NAV is 115p as opposed to 51p, it only has 10 years of life left so don't expect a premium rating and with RH down to $16k and using the average PER for 5 years as shown on the stock exchange site you get a target of 150p for SLP (DSF 180p) and THS 250p. Both are great but SLP is only great at much higher RH prices and that is not coming back IMO and now in the opinion of Heraeus.

This is now approaching its TNAV 114p so it's nearing a no-brainer for me, if you strip out all the Rh from its income it's still 158p on a low PE of 6. The one broker covering SLP is using $20k Rh to 2024 and did mention the possibility of $100k prices, this was after the same broker last year stuck to a basket price of $1800 for months when it was over $3000, i just don't get his figures now I think they are too high and the uptick in 2022 doesn't seem to make sense, this distorts some stocko data. The 6 brokers covering THS appear to be using a consensus of $16k for Rh and giving a slightly lower 2022 profit to 2021 which seems to be what I'm seeing across many miners, but not accounting for 200k oz of PGM and 2m tons of chrome. Ben (SLP broker) is giving a larger profit as he seems to think Rh will rise. Clearly, outlooks are different and so are forecasts but I do agree with many that THS is well equipped to still make £90m profit at RH prices down to $14k and much lower prices on the other metals, big margin of safety here. Today/now I see profits at £115m for ths and SLP £79m. My slight reluctance on SLP now ( i have both/both are great) is that it's rarely traded on a PER more than 6-7 for 5 years due to the tailings ending in 10 yrs and im not sure we will see very high Rh again. Would you buy a business with a 10-year life making £79m with net assets of 50p a share for £336m or one making £115m with 115p in net assets with a 40-year life for £313m?

Does anyone know what SLP and THS are making as profits today at today's prices?
Do you know what the historical PE rates are for both from the stock exchange over 5 yrs?
Do you know what the DCF figures are?
Do you know what the life is of both mines/tailings?
Do you know what cash flow is with/without cap-ex?
Do you rely on 1 analysis or 6 to get a consensus?
Do you read broker notes?
Do you even bother with working out what your shares will make yourself?
Do you know the expansion plans for both and how that affects the net income?
Do you know who owns the bulk of shares in both companies via complex trusts?
Do you know how much profits will be if Rh slips to any value and have protected yourself against this?
Do you have 4 charts set up for Rh alone and multiple alerts and triggers and have an opinion yourself of Rh?
Do you monitor car production in china and industry news daily?

I guess very few, this takes huge amounts of time, time the ordinary PI doesn't have but you tend to get in ahead of people or take advantage of special situations if you know this. It probably explains a lot of the discussion regarding the two and why many are in both but prefer one over the other. A great investment never starts on a spike unbless it's being sold really cheap

The lockdowns introduced thousands of new bored people to the markets who could throw money at anything and it went up, they are now expert investors. Bitcoin is an example of a totally chart-driven investment that's slipped out of a channel sub 200 and now people don't know what to do. SLP is controlled by an underlying set of metal prices with RH having the most influence, its nothing to do with anything that happened in previous years, that is connected to particular times of the year when they stockpile Rh and other PGM for catalysts driving prices. I'm sure China wants copper back in a mid Feb to late April price range and it's done that exactly using threats about releasing some of their 2mths supply of copper they have. When the momentum/trend gets damaged the algos drive it down. Oil will be next under attack in a few months I'm sure, $70 is ok $85+ isn't.

Rh looks stable here, it's had a few days now when its gained on the NY JM desk and several Rh ETF & ETC i follow are now giving off some early signs on their charts of some slight upwards movements, boat festival in HK so no figures on that today. $22k works very well here, and I'm sure many value investors know this. I think some newer investors tend to forget or don't actually know that there is a long mine life here but on SLP the life is about 10 years. Personally, i have THS on a PE of 2.85 and SLP 3.9 today, I do think THS deserves a much higher rating especially due to the planned increase in production so im slightly more in THS than SLP today. Give it a few days and I think people will start to see the Rh price moving up a little, that always works, but I'm seeing early signs now.

Don't underestimate the power that several countries have when they all have the same goal and work together and control media. It's not in the interests of anyone to have sudden huge rises in comodity prices when you are planning huge projects, Trump's offensive on oil was an example, and the Saudi retaliation another. As far as I see it, this is a pause, china, a huge buyer didn't like the vertical movements in many metals since mid-march when i was first alerted to their concerns by an Iron ore broker in Singapore, they did some technical damage by making threats & it worked, the algo's take over. Commodity prices have to go up and all the indices I follow which look at a range of commodities say it's all going up slowly, all is good. The baltic dry is indicating a rise again today so big containers of "stuff "are moving about again at these prices. Quite a lot of stuff looks very healthy. Iron ore SGX 65% (FXPO) with its china focus looks exceptionally good, copper ok moving sideways, platinum, lumbar, and bitcoin 3 I also follow look poor. Palladium ok but focusing on Rh it's risen across all trading desks with JM now off $21k and again today in HK trading, it appears to have found support at $21-22k. What happens if RH has found its base here and the "new normal" is $20-25k which is what it was in Feb pre china irritations, still good profits on both but the majority of traders don't actually know this until results day as fundamentals don't matter. Q2 $20m profit and Rh was about $17k during this time, YTD Rh is $24k. Things are messy but not if you look past the last few days. My concerns last few weeks were a bigger drop but I'm not seeing this now.

Many metals are just cooling off and moving sideways for a while, it's normal after such a huge rise. We are in a new electrification supercycle so those above need things to be moved forwards at their pace copper especially. The cure for high prices is high prices, metals need to stay around the April prices for a while i think.

The price of Rh makes a huge difference to the figures ahead. $29.5k looked toppy and twice it settled around $22k and $21.2k and moved back up so is that support and stockpiling?. $22k+ Rh works for me here but $15k doesn't work for me unless I use DCF and then it does, $15k works well on THS but that's another discussion. So is Rh comfortable at $22k and is it game on again with this price action on the two?

A 200p target is only likely if RH maintains $25k+, it's fallen back from $29.5 to $22k, up to $25.5, and now down again to $23k. That kind of action suggests it could be in a downtrend, it's below the 20, 50 and 100 day sma. It's spiked due to a mine closure, i still think it will settle below $20k now as no immediate sign of stockpiling RH at $25.5k.

Be ahead of stockopedia on both and know what both are making at any basket price.

Be

As we know, all costs have risen sharply in the last few months particularly if you look at the baltic dry index and many commodities. FXPO did highlight additional costs with shipping in their results. Basing future expenses on last year is probably unwise IMO. Based on current expenses and prices I have 40p as the eps, using the extra production with higher revised costs going forward I have about the same eps. The broker has probably based the target on revised expenses but not allowed for additional sales possibly, or he just S**t. I'm sure collectively we are right somewhere around the figures being mentioned.

Rhodium up in NY also to $23250.

Chief Financial Officer Nicolas Peter also said during a conference call that BMW expected raw material prices to rise, especially for rhodium and palladium and steel.

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/bmw-confirms-outlook-says-rest-2021-be-volatile-2021-05-07/

heads up on the HK Rhodium price and XRH0 opening up 8%.....great results as expected still have EPS at 40p, the basket was $2.8k now nearer $4k, genuinely only 5 RNS have impressed me in 2021 so far this was the 5th

Rhodium dropped in NY trading yesterday to $25,500 and is now down to $25,000 in HK trading so is a drop by 15%, Rhodium accounts for 70% of revenue here. I did mention in an earlier post that I thought the dip was due to the weakening technically of Rhodium and $25k area was where it was heading. It broke its 20 50 and now just holding the 100 d. The PGM's were driven up in March due to the unplanned closing of a major mine so the rise from $25k to $30k was possibly a spike, there has also been lots of positive PR here and Rhodium, chip supply is affecting new car production also. The Nov-Feb price for Rhodium was around $18k , YTD it's $25k. Whilst this looks cheap I'm always reluctant to add to anything where the underlying commodity is falling, I've reduced my positions on the two PGM miners but will re-enter when things cool and flatten, China is actively trying to suppress any rise in some commodities and that has all the power. Great value here still but who buys gold/oil shares when the commodity price is falling? Predicting the price of SLP based on its chart movements in previous years takes no account of the underlying commodity price particularly Rhodium, let's face it most are here for the $5000-$29000 rhodium increase, you have to follow the Rhodium price here.

Maybe it's the Rhodium chart and its dip below the 50 sma, it's been vertical for many months and covid & mine closures have helped, i think $25k is about where it will level off, still good value still but will people buy when the price of platinum & rhodium has probably peaked, People don't tend to buy oil shares when oil is falling back do they? plan 30% on 50 day 30% at 119p which is the point of control for 2021 and 30% at 114 area bottom of a channel. Alternatively, possibly sit out and go 100% on the break in the downtrend. It's all about Rhodium.

https://www.heraeus.com/media/media/hpm/doc_hpm/precious_metal_update/The_Platinum_Standard_2021.pdf?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=the_platinum_standard_2021#msdynttrid=lKI40D_DcTnX2ROwxlH62bYNCioEmTBN9WjkvMBpdy8

Summary for me is Plat $1175 Pal $2950 Rhod $29k with 90k oz deficit and a good few more years of these higher prices to come. Easier to read than the JM one.

Quick glance looks very good, I'm a holder/buyer, doesn't look expensive when freight and logistics trading on multiples of 19x, TTM was 28x, and the previous year 17x, it does seem there is quite a way to go here.