Member Info for bangrak

How exactly is china supposed to use less steel when it's building huge cities and trying to get the rural folk to live together? Is this like the poor copper threat which was at first concerning until banks pointed out China has about 2 months of copper in reserves? What's next, please do more exercise but use less oxygen? The stock market is like a stray dog, runs away at any sudden noise, and then takes days to calm down once it realizes it was insignificant. 65% fe futures July 2022 needs to bottom first imo before i can work out if the analyst's consensus are right with $145t plus pellet premium. I think they are a bit too low myself.

I've been buying some at 99p as I'm anticipating the masses to work out in 2-3 weeks that Rh isn't crashing further and that it's still in demand and that $18-20k gives all PGM miners a decent level of income still, 160-165p now imo. If you like profitable cash generative businesses smashed down due to china metal speak and a seller, then cast your eye over ATYM. Looks good, just think that value investors attracted to SLP will appreciate it. copper at $4.33 2021 eps about 70p on my calculations, consensus eps now upgraded to 71p this week. Has traded on a PE of near 10 for about 5 yrs. Anyone with any other 100% possible next 1-2 years?

I think a week or two is needed here before it's safe to say it's game on again, a rise above $20.5k for Rh and some stability in car productions and registrations in china will help, i think that data is due next week. 103.9+ is indicating something moving might be worth watching that area.

RH stable at $18.4 on JM for 6 days now up to $18.9 today over my way. Still too early to say this is a rise but it's fair to say you can probably use $18=19k in calculations with a 5-6 pe and be conservative at 160p. Further eps downgrades from the broker last week as expected and mentioned a few weeks ago, 2022 eps cannot be higher on flat production than 2021 so ben is adjusting down slowly to a 2022 eps of 40c imo. No TR1 from AAC after that fall which is odd as they must be selling. 98-100p looks ok needs to pass 112p before the high fives return. Ok value, not 100% but good.

Even if you assume prices reduce to a 200 day average on the SGX 65% 7/2022 futures at $150 and remain at this level and build in a lower pellet premium ( i recall $30 mentioned in the report last year) it's still $180 and an eps of 112p so 600p comfortably. The only point made by the heckler last week at 7 am that I do agree with is that things don't tend to go up when the commodity is in a correction, but unlike Rhodium, iron isn't likely to be a huge swinger. So this is all about china issuing some comments again at the right time on a chart to knock the edge of a commodity and unsettle the traders. Give it a week and it's game on again just like copper was.

62% iron ore is likely to go to $140-150 on the chart, so the 65% will probably go to $170, that's the chart law usually.
65% next contract in front SGX , support channel near $179, same 65% SGX futures on july 2022 contract is $173 today, all pointing to $170 as a figure to use further ahead, with a pellet premium on top of say $60 gives you $230t or $2.65b revenue $1.16b net or £841m, eps of 143p pe today 3.35. DCE July 22 contract now $130 plus 65% premium and pellet premium $220. At this stage, I'm therefore guided towards using $220-230 per ton. I'm using a PE minimum of 5 but think 6-7 is fair value and still has a 40-50% discount to other producers. 700-900p area as fair, so same final conclusion as lucky, 100% here. So maybe not a good idea to run for the door when people shout fire in the theatre every morning.

Could you/anyone explain why you think this is worth 200p, I see people using "Simon said" or "the broker said" maybe if we had some homemade figures however they are calculated we have a consensus, maybe some people who admit to not being numbers men might realise that the power here is in the hands of the PI and pick up a few tips. I'm financially trained but not in accountancy. I have a basket price of $3709 using the prill split in results and the july Rh average of $18.8 and current pl/pal prices to keep it simple, x 70k, minus about 58% costs which is $108m turned into £ and divided by the shares in issue i get an eps of 40c of 28.8p. Using the average of the last 5 years PE ratio from the stock exchange site listed under ratios 5.26 and the ttm from stocko 6.13 i get 5.7. my simple way gives me 164p as a fair and undemanding valuation today andone can understand. If i use a trailing 3m rh $22.6k i get 185p and my minimum 80% gain. I also have a DCF which gives me 175p using a lower basket of $3.3k and 2k in years 5-9. Broker has eps as 46c or 33p so this gives 188p.

The best thing i ever did was to set up spreadsheets for every company, I wish someone told me this was crucial when I started buying rubbish years ago, i could have retired at 35, not 38, and spent even less time living in the UK than i did. And to think that the person who admits to being "no expert" advises you to block people like me....strange chap indeed, we canall learn from someone.

ETFRHO chart is worth setting up if you are serious about this and want to be ahead of the crowd, if not, don't bother just wait for the next installment on price action and how it's linked to cheese prices in France, the crowd loves that.

Still not sure where Rh will sit, clearly production data below from July isn't great and i did read that the US had reported much slower production also, but OEM's will be keen to buy at some stage so im just keeping an eye on JM and this about the 9th. http://en.caam.org.cn/Index/show/catid/51/id/1602.html $18k feels sensible.

toptiger, not outside Rougemont park in the alley beside boots?....... i recall your Exonian location, I used to play second row alonside Rob Baxter for Devon and briefly at the county ground for the chiefs. Hope Devon is well, miss it a lot.

JN, i got stung in Paphos very badly by Cypriots on a hotel deal so I'm also wary.... from my research I recall that the ultimate beneficiary of the Medway holding was the brother of the CEO, i did have a link to this but it's out there. Clearly, there is value here but after 6 months it's been flat to down for many. Maybe most like SLP as it goes up and some journalist writes about it. With thousands liking bitcoin at $65k i have no idea anymore how long the bubble will last.

Rh is probably rising because there could be some concern over the supply in SA due to unrest, the same rise happened in covid times. Some investors fear this and will be selling, i see it as an opportunity myself as any disruption forces the price of Rh upwards, I've been in enough shares when odd things happen to realize most times it creates opportunity.

Nothing has changed except Rh going from $29k to $17.5k which accounts for 61% of SLP revenue a difference of £31m to the net income, Rh is volatile. I wish you well but that is a material change so maybe slightly more accuracy, it's like oil going from $75 to $44 in less than a month and saying I've bought shell as nothing has changed. Nothing goes up in a falling commodity even if it's cheap. The time to buy here IMHO is the break in the downtrend, half there and half at 124p+, draw a line from top 1 june to 6th july and buy on the break on the close only, also watch ETFRHO for break-in 289276. Also page 51 the art of execution explains what is happening here very well. Fundamentals and charts equally is the only answer.

What a weird pe

What's Harry's agenda selling a few shares every few weeks, liquidity is good here why not just dump more rather than having this internal director battle buying and selling. No idea how Cannacord gets 375p, I've got 580p on DCF alone with 600p using a dull pe of 8. $4.5+ and china comes out with its copper dumping threats.

Similar to you Sirius, using average commodity prices for the ytd this is $31.75m a quarter, on current prices, it's $26m a quarter or EPS 38c. Berenberg is only giving THS a PE of about 5.5 in its current analysis and its mine life is 40 years + Chrome, so using a similar PE here and/or the average taken from the LSE site over 5 years then its a PE of 5.26. So 151p is fair value at the current $17.5 Rh prices if you use historical PE rates given and this simple but popular valuation method. DCF does give 180p+ but is anyone interested in DCF?. I think any traders here might be range trading this one now and i will explain why below. I've just finished some analysis on the latest CAAM production figures for vehicles in china issued yesterday as i always do and it's reporting a 16.5% decline in YOY production. If you follow that theme onto the end of 2021 due to assumed chip issues, then there could be a shortfall of some 2.2m vehicles from China alone, so we are likely to have some Rh balancing. I'm not that excited about Rh short term based on this analysis and don't think it will rise anytime soon, but stockpiling will occur at some stage so support should emerge. I think traders might need to revise expectations on top corner timeline expectations as you seem to be glossing over some very important events coming out of China (your number 1 RH consumer) that will affect Rh prices and will affect the price action here over the coming months. Ben has revised down the EPS on SLP last week 9c reflecting the lower RH so try to be realistic, the big money here will be holding back any substantial rises until RH rises past $22k again. I think this is going to go sideways for quite a while, i cannot see anything other than a surge in RH price that will change that and that isn't going to come from China at this point. SLP needs to do something with the cash it has, buying back staff shares at 131p when you have a 10% seller and the price is now 115p needs attention.

Berenberg has $658m and $127m net, I have $641m and $128m net, you both have similar figures. I think the point we've made about calculating what the others will make at lower Rh prices and consider your positioning makes good sense as analysts on the others start to reduce forecast EPS like we said they would do :). Still think there is huge potential in some other shares also which have been smashed down recently over china threats. Some real good value here and in places like EVR FXPO AAL ATYM. Metals do look like they are poised for another run soon and few other areas seem to offer 80-100% returns.

If you don't understand charts then you will never understand share movements and sudden drops. This should close above 118p+ to look ok. 115-116p is where im buying for a trade and a good area technically but 100p is possible if the 116.9 weekly vstop support goes, so if you want this to look good, keep it above 116.9p by 4.30pm. I'm not fussed about what happens, I know at $15k rh this makes $93m so about 150p target and just worth buying at this price for me, but $19k its $108m or 174p.

Rh has fallen in London trading to $19k, if China and Taiwan have issues the chip situation could deteriorate, a slowdown of 2m cars is ok but 4m cars will put Rh into balance and who knows what will happen to these high Rh prices if the Rh market is balanced. Its only here due to exceptional circumstances like flooded mines and covid. You need to think for yourself and work out what these miners will make at lower Rh prices and not rely on analysts who call $29k Rh when i said no it's falling to $20k. High Rh favours SLP low does not hence the fall here.

To be a good investor since about October last year it required you to do the opposite to what was logical, when you have