Member Info for bangrak

I'm working on the basis that they will follow steel & cut production during peak hours so effectively knocking 30% off production for a while, therefore, I have a net profit of about £77m. Inventories in China are falling quite dramatically so prices should stay up despite recession risks. Copper Steel Aluminium top 3 metals used in low carbon economy transition.

Like others, I've done very well from this one and a few others the last 6 months but these high prices are not good, cure for high prices is high prices. It seems to have topped out at a PE of around 4.5 on last year's earnings (coal $120-130) Still exceptionally cheap on current coal prices. Using a mix of some futures prices coal is sitting at $300t which currently gives me a PE of 1.97 and tons of cash (£1.5m a day). results come, out market is stunned by cash build even though it's know already by many. Still one for 2022-23

Like covid the War is taking focus away from the S**t that is starting to hit the fan. Along comes the inverted yield curves (10 countries now, UK partially inverted)= probable recession, Evergrand $2b default in March possible, Russia misses bond payments, markets crash (started already) banks tighten up during a financial crisis, the world goes into a recession in 6m, who buys cars?. Look for opportunities but twice as hard for threats. Chart people here are perhaps not getting the fact that SLP has never traded on a PE of more than about 5 in the last 5 years (source London stock exchange), when RH went to $29k it touched 140p+. PE is now 5.41 using the average PGM prices for 2022. What exactly are you hoping for here?

Palladium makes very little difference to the earnings here. Range traders

There is a huge difference between what brokers are using for NBP, Finncap 22=200p 23=100p, Arden is using 120p & 80p. Not a chance NBP will fall to these low 80p levels, minimum IMHO will be 170p...... £181m pbt here with a cap of £180m, very very cheap.

It was Roman Abramovich transferring his Evraz holding from the British Virgin Islands to himself in Russia last week that screamed to me "invasion 100%, gas will fly" so I put a bit more in here. Yesterday Dmitry Medvedev's comment about the EU about to enjoy 1000 cubic meters for 2000 euros (I make it 480p a therm) is what's making me consider sitting very tight. Shaping up for near £400m net when it all catches up, gas does look happy at 167-195p on several futures charts.

Relatively illiquid you say, i can regularly get quotes to sell and buy £250k, hardly illiquid is it?

Hippo, looks like you have used gross basket you have to remove a % to account for (as they put it) penalties/smelting costs and applying the contractual payability). Maybe shave off 25%

Probably worth having a look at the prill split now in today's RNS compared to what it was, there have been some material changes that need to be included in your calculations if you do any. I calculate net now using 2022 pgm averages $59m eps 22c or 16p, currently trading on a PE of 6.27. It would need a sizable rise in Rh to get this to 120p imo. To get to an EPS of 30c which brokers claim Rh needs to average $23k in 2022. That is possible if you apply an exponential trend line to January & Feb prices.

Hard-hitting Sanctions on the Russian elite were only planned if an invasion took place. Surely this suggests very strongly what will happen and suggests why Biden is just repeating soon. The gas situation is likely to get much worse just as EU begins to look at refilling storage for next year, Russia won't sell at spot prices as it tries to get the EU to do long term deals, sanctions on the use of the dollar/SWIFT, the entire world starts to bid for LNG cargos, gas shoots up, Energy-intensive industry closes down, lack of fertilizer and wheat/corn, many Commodities shoot up, Gas & Oil look the best option. DYOR as always, good business this and its day will come but patience.

Well connected billionaire boss of Major London football team who shakes hands with all the big wigs in London and close associate of Putin transfers his entire shareholding from a company registered in the British Virgin Island to himself in Russia the same day the invasion was supposed to happen but got delayed....

That's exactly what i have also NK £1.875m pd, broker consensus EPS figures are 30% too low at present.

Edison said that they were told by management that there was a longer life than was being communicated and we said that they needed to put this in an RNS and they didn't? It's all paid for research undertaken by people who cover many companies led by the company, it's far better to get to grips with valuing things yourself, and then you are about 3-6m ahead of upgrades and downgrades and can act before anyone. It's been said many times here there will be broker downgrades as brokers are wrong on figures. Currently this is making about $79m net using the 2022 PGM average prices, brokers have $72-75m so at least now after 3-4 months, they're realistic. Current PE ratio 4.53 historical PR ratio over the last 5 yrs 5.26, that should tell you what you need to know about how much room this has to move surely. It was apparent to many who do numbers that one of Ben's other ones Thungela was an easy 100% and in the last 3 months that's what its done another to watch is SQZ, grossly undervalued as brokers are way off on gas prices and will do a Ben and upgrade slowly as not to look******, I really suggest you keep an eye on that one as any sustained reduction to gas flows into Europe via the Russian pipeline = much higher gas prices for a long time, ships cannot deliver the quantity of gas Europe consumes.

It was mentioned quite a few months ago that the broker had got this wrong and that predicting $100m net and huge free cash was near impossible, the broker is now slowly reducing his TP down to what has been said on here many times before. I calculated yesterday how much RH has to rise just to achieve this net profit shortfall in H2, again it's near impossible so IMHO the broker has lost credibility on this one still putting this out. I do like Ben's coverage of others but he's got this one wrong too many times suggesting he and the business are not communicating well,........$1800 basket 2yrs ago when it was over $2800 as of writing, possible $100k Rh, $100m net profit again, advice to buy Thungela but in a separate report says don't buy coal........ totally mixed up, maybe if he had a lot of skin in the game he would sharpen up a little, even his forecast RH price for 2022 won't hit this net profit target. 123p max on this one if you include cash, no point in expecting it to hit 150p-170p like some suggest when it didn't last year at $29k RH, everyone is expecting RH to be volatile and broker targets $5k in 2026 for RH. First time in 2 years I've read a production decline and cash drop, you can ride this one on a PGM rise off the back of a possible supply squeeze from palladium in Russia but it's not going to double. I'm in neither now at this point as energy is too attractive but THS offers more value.

It will be hot this year, somewhere between 5 and 35 degrees depending on if it's sunny or cloudy and what way the wind blows, it might rain occasionally also, some places will be hotter than others.......

"The rhodium price is estimated to range between $22,000/oz and $7,500/oz. With the market forecast to be balanced, any changes to supply or demand could result in sharp price movements. Risks to supply could come from underperforming recycling, and the three largest South African PGM mining companies will start wage negotiations with the mining unions later this year which does leave open the possibility of a strike. Meanwhile, rhodium demand is dependent on the automotive industry having sufficient chips available to meet the higher light-vehicle production expected this year"

I agree with tiger $20k plus RH is the only way you will see 150p+ here without buying something with the cash, but that has to be sustained, huge ranges like $7k to $22k just says no idea & trader volatility to me. Cautiously cautious I feel. Running those high-end estimates gives me $116m slp $122m this...probably 155p and 165p. Still watching on the sidelines for now.

Using next, 6m ahead, and 1 year ahead futures, you get a mean price of $138t. In my calculations I'm using $123, brokers are $125. This $123 generates $1.68b on the current 13.7m but production is likely to go to 16m (let's forget that, that's a bonus RNS). Knocking off costs as explained in the brokers notes and turned into £ it's £234m net so it's trading on a pe of 2.42. Divvy is 30% of the f-cash and on these prices, you get 52p divvy ps & your 413p back in dividends alone after 7-8yrs. The Glencore deal showed how much cash these dirty people are making. This has probably now got £420m in cash and that is rising £600k-700k a day so you have 300p ps in cash now going up 14p a month ps at $123 (now $163 bounced off $120)
However, this looks like it will have about £800m after 30% dividends in 5 years so knock off the £316m decommissioning costs and you have a possible £500m knocking about not needed or £100m pa special dividend pa, using this assumed special dividend you get a total divvy of 125p ps or your 413p (today's price) back in 3.3yrs. At 16k and higher coal, it's even more interesting. I got given these free as a result of having Anglo shares, took me a while to actually appreciate what a cash generator this was. If you split your cash between this GKP & SQZ you're likely to do quite well in 2022 despite the challenges ahead. DYOR, simple assumptions basic figures, you can borrow ideas but you cannot borrow conviction.

They also mention that they are not sure if this recent rise in Rh is driven by the industry or speculators. If you also read the link they post about 2022 star performers/picks, SLP is missing out in favor of Anglo. The same broker did say that RH could rise to $100k so their opinion is just that. Rh predicted to be $20k which is spot on what it ended up on last year so another $97m net profit on a similar PE sub 5 gives a target of 35cx5=177 or 130p. To get to an average of $20k it needs to raise quite a lot quite soon. Personally, it's not wow still and the lack of wow reduces some heavy investment into this. I see a potential for 135p, but now I see 90-100p. Lots out there with wow on now.

This happened a few years ago after covid, took ages before people actually believed Rh would stay up, even the brokers were doubtful. The issue I have is the actual demand now V availability compared to 2 yrs ago. 2 yrs ago china emerged chasing Rh when SA was in lockdown it was a perfect storm, the huge reductions in property transactions in china says people are not spending like before, that surely means cars also? Gas and oil are as good if not better than Rh IMHO and safer, what started for me as a very serious green energy research period 4 months ago, ended in me switching almost everything into dirty energy esp gas coal oil & copper. With SLP I see 94-95+ as a turning point here especially when the bid is higher, the trend is not broken yet from may 21. Rh at $20k gives NPAT $84m and on the current 22 RH average of $15.7k I get $57m, placing it on a current PE of 5.92, which IMHO is about where it should be, good but not astounding, maybe range trade?. The transition to green energy is IMHO never going to happen in my life, with rare earth minerals being protected and no real indication of where all these magnets are coming from for the lovely bird-killing windmills with their huge steel nickel & copper appetites. Going to get lively here when that trend gets broken, this week most likely if this RH run is solid.

Some encouraging signs on a break in a downtrend from 23rd march on ETFRHO a Rhodium ETF, waiting for that to rise above 22k myself before having another look at the value here. However, 97p looks about right if you add in the cash on the current basket. Really needs a bit of a boost on Rh prices, the rest of the basket doesn't really shift it that much.

Agree also on Uranium 150 reactors planned in China alone, however, there does seem to be quite a lot of it about, and the futures markets indicate $44-48 about the right level. Yellow Cake has a net value of 370p on Uranium of $47lbs and Geiger Counter another that looks interesting that I follow. If we are all here to make money then I really suggest following what SQZ is doing, been in and out since 16p, its free cash on the 100% income in 2022 from the BKR deal added to 200p+ gas is astronomical, it hedges a small % so is exposed to this spike same as SLP in Rhodium times. Dirty old Thungela a coal spin-off from Anglo American is throwing off cash at $130t coal, cash went up £221m in less than 6 months. If you like doing the numbers GKP is another as oil settles at $71+, ATYM another cash generator in copper at $4.28lbs, and I3e a gas one that is impressive for 2022+. I like SLP and it was the cash that drew me to it a few yrs ago, rarely do those fundamentals remain as most things re-rate or the commodity drops. Iron ore is making a comeback FXPO and Evraz interesting but not quite 100% gain. What is for certain is that this variant will pass (see evidence from African hospitals) things will regain momentum, Europe will struggle under the weight of the gas price so probably look for bizarre "covid" ways to hit the spot price, Putin will move more men into position until Europe backs down on NS2 and gas then falls back, we will struggle to produce 100% more electric without using tons more copper and burning more fossil fuels initially, France is back on Oil powered electricity yesterday according to Javier Blas . Excellent money in energy this winter and probably into next but need to watch it closely.