Member Info for bangrak

I had dinner with someone who has just returned from 7yrs in China with BMW. All-electric now no interest in anything ICE but no one wants to work in China anymore they are all leaving. I say this is all about Rh prices and volume of ICE cars produced in China if all 3 are up then it's a place to invest if not you will sit on a flat-to-down SP for months occasionally traded as it will be at 72p. The other PGMs add very little to the bottom line. Rule number 1, never invest in anything sub 200 day, wait for all the metals to rise to 200 day + then get involved. You can see how bad the markets are and how trading algos work. My research into the green transition last year had me moving all my funds into gas coal oil in a surprise u-turn. CCP is firmly behind electrification and they control most RE including neodymium.

sp 542p now 303p, when asked about the last transfer I said it's taken 4 days it used to take 10 seconds. see what you see don't see what you want to see, and consider the global customer base. I can transfer £200 in seconds but £5k takes 4 days,

$67m net profit, EPS 20p, SLP has traded on a PE of 3-5 for many years so its about right where it is, unless there is a sizable change in the price of RH or they do something to add value (unlikely). If you want to work out some very juicy figures, look at IOG. My calculations say its net profit next 12m will be about the same as its market cap now. Gas & Coal only things looking fundamentally and technically strong. Rest at present is very poor. SCAN* transition metals are also very very weak. *steel copper aluminum, nickel. Calculations here at 30p in 2020 post covid said this was worth 80p hence the huge interest and volumes then. See what you see, don't see what you want to see, you will make more money. TTM is what it actually did not an algo btw.

I've seen several miners get their profits wiped out due to rising energy costs, the AISC is pushed 20-30%. Rolling power cuts in SA are happening now, the cost of coal is up which is used to make the power that most refiners need, the EU is moving from gas to coal and one of the main suppliers is South Africa. You need china EU & US booming and buying cars to drive Rh prices, a shortage of RH also helps, and so do lower costs. Without this, you need to be realistic. Virtually all metals are sub 200d.

Reliant on China manufacturing and selling ICE cars to get RH up and SLP buybacks to keep it above 85p. Gas oil & Coal for now and the next 1-2yrs.

TM-M.....100mcm/d today from gazprom v 500, 3 yrs ago, turkstream offline next week & ns1 down next month, need to hold these gas oil & coal .

Maybe do some research on....
How much electricity the world will need in 10 years to satisfy this green demand.
Have a look at where the electricity in each of the more populated countries (not the Uk it's insignificant v India) currently comes from/will come from.
How much needs to be done/built to make this green stuff happen.
Where the rare earth minerals come from & who controls the entire chain.
See how much earth needs to be dug up to make a 1 x 50kg electric car battery.
How much copper 1m of subsea turbine cable contains and how much copper is needed to satisfy future wind generation estimates globally, I recall some CEO at some big copper place said "ain't got it, too much too soon". Have you seen the Shanghai copper inventories recently?
What are the 3 essential metals for electrification every green industry needs?
Spend a few weeks really digging deep, probably like me you will be a bit shocked and say this is a bit of BS and realize that the current fossil fuels rise is justified and will continue until people see the reality that we need these fuels for many years to come and exploration is needed, these political idiots told you nuclear was being phased out, now they are building reactors again. Gas futures 200p+ for the next few years, the old normal was max 70-80p, coal old normal $60-80t now $250+, oil $70 now $110+, no spikes here these are here to stay for a while & few things have really re-rated, same as SLP at 36p RH was rising and staying up indicating much higher SP to come, same in energy.

Be very aware of everything going on now and what's likely to happen.
Do people buy cars during Recessions?
Does China look good?
People need electricity to keep the lights on, India has an insatiable desire for coal.
A reduction in pipeline gas to Europe = higher gas prices globally.
What looks good here 1w 1m YTD and YOY........energy?
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodities
PGM's not the place to be, virtually all of them and SLP sub 200 day ema

Brokers are usually slow at upgrades on this one, it's been screaming 200p gas and over £1m a day profit for weeks. Seems now brokers agree, 100% consensus net profit upgrade this week. DYOR as always, if brokers were good they would be sat somewhere nice investing their own money amongst coconut trees and blue seas. The same happened on Thungela recently, brokers miles out on calculations.

If it's not in an RNS it's speculation, detail the price, and the fact that the bookbuild is complete in an RNS, then we can ask questions why £2m was sold by two employees just weeks before. What I'm smelling stinks.

Almost a fire sale, something looked strange when the 2 directors sold a few weeks ago before results then Harry resigned, I would suggest that there has been some insider trading here. I mentioned the issues the copper companies were having & this looks like some pretty good evidence that these large smelters are really struggling and that ATYM is leaky. Is the bank instigating this sale? are we about to see the collapse of some major smelters in china? what will that do to prices? have ATYM been supplying them and have there been some payment issues?.........a few dark clouds about this now, shame I did really like it. Bottomed out at 392 so there you go that's the price.

I think a lack of liquidity would cause a fire sale, 40% between both, 2 atym directors sold a few million just a week or so before this news emerged at 440, now Harry the drip-feed seller has resigned. I always look for opportunities but twice as hard for the threats. It's worth remembering if we don't see any decent rises soon.

Any questions about two of the three top shareholders (Yanggu Xiangguang Copper Co & Trafigura) potentially being in some degree of financial distress, plenty of chat about this on Bloomberg, creditors won't advance the Chinese anymore money. Harry (above representative) resigning today has alerted me to this as an issue possibly.

207% increase in electric charges so IMO you need to use the higher $3.0 aisc so net profit @ $4.67 copper = £120m, still 600-700p fair. Analysts seem a little bit light on estimates here. Cu seems to be the only thing that hasn't really taken off but it's the second most important metal in the green transition. 30GW of wind turbines should use 240,000t of copper assuming 8,000kg / MW of capacity, there is also 50kg of copper in 1m of underwater cable for a windmill and almost 3x the copper in an EV verses an ICE. More demand here going forward than PGM's

£1m off my lower estimation so electric pulled that down a bit, however, £109m is a good effort, copper was $4.14 now it's $4.6 with a strong support at $4.48, aisc was $2.5 now its $2.5-3.0. Plugging this into my sheet this looks like it's heading for a net profit of £118-123m or sat on a PE of 4.6. I think that a bit cheap myself 650-700p seems fair so a 50% er from here. Cashflow calculations also give me 650p+. Very good not astounding 100% stuff but very good & still holding. Copper storage in China is falling rapidly.

Used this lot for 7 yrs they were brilliant until the day they were listed on the LSE. Now terrible transfers slow and poor customer service.

"anyone got a view on what we can expect"

£110-130m net

People are finally realising that gas is not going to go back to "cheap" therefore using a mix of prices now for NBP and considering the next 12-18 months, you have to be looking at a gas price of 185-225p. Allowing for what's been hedged on SQZ I have the net income here at £400m+. Brokers are way off ATM both caught out by the situation. Where i live they are charging 4 bhat a kwh until a few days ago, now its 5bhat, the problem is LNG is now $32 MMBtu in Asia up from $7 6m ago, which equates to an actual kWh cost for the LNG to be 4bhat and with 50% of the electric they make getting lost on the way in transmission/distribution leaks, the real cost is 8b in LNG just to make the electric. Even governments don't have a grasp here, its like we are all on a big boat heading for the cliffs playing chicken, but soon it will be too late to turn the boat away.

"And PGMs are likely going higher and higher for the foreseeable"

nope

https://www.heraeus.com/media/media/hpm/doc_hpm/precious_metal_update/en_6/Appraisal_20220321.pdf#msdynttrid=-MnrBrERZHJch3WpZzCggCW6_DLX2tRQWX3XofHAyT0

$56 is 448p nav on my sheet