Member Info for bangrak

There is some cap-ex in there unlike Q2, but not like the 2019 spend. If you assume a cap-ex similar to 2019 with current gas prices which are 29% higher then I get 45-50p plus the cash at 11p as fair value. Keep cap-ex to Q2 levels with current prices and you have almost 100% possible here. I think the drop is a bit OTT but I'm unaware of any 2021 cap-ex guidance.

Interesting price action early today on the Asian market. Gold dipped to what now appears to be 3rd confirmation of an ascending support line & 200 day ema and rebounded very quickly. Points I'm using..... 21 May 2019 @1269, 1763 30 Nov 20, today 1805 on futures. I see no evidence myself that anything over here in the east has improved dramatically justifying this market rise recently, if anything things have slowed dramatically the lasts 2 weeks with many reporting greater difficulties now than for the last 6 months. I'm not getting this gold dip or oil rally at all, most countries in Asia have slashed air routes and banned any inter provincial travel, I expect these observations to follow into various financial reports in a few weeks.

I can see $100-125m but not $250m post-tax and post CAPEX in 2021, maybe 2022+. Both are obviously heavily dependent on high Rhodium (SLP 66%) but that will not last forever. My sheet hits SLP as mentioned and JLP exactly but way off on this Tharisa figure. Costs of exporting Chrome are rising as the baltic dry recovers, but chrome is also rising. Any resurgence of the virus in China will suppress this commodity rise, the Chinese new year could create some downward momentum in prices as demand falls. Tharisa appears to offer more value longer term but that is only due to SLP now being 100p and not 30-40p and making no real progress on extending its supplies. I have a position still in SLP but not Tharisa. I'm slightly wary that the actual beneficiary of the Medway shareholding is the son/brother of the CHM/CEO via a trust.

Interesting when you have so many gurus on Twitter reminding people of the importance of things like low PE, low EV/EBITDA, and low P/FC, but completely missing things like Hum. Perhaps they should add low PEG, high eps growth, high-profit margins, low price to book, low price to sales, and finally high ROE. Be your own Guru in 2021 do your own research and wait.

Hummingbird
PE rolling 3.2
PEG roling 0.1
EPS growth rolling 107%
Profit Margin TTM 21%
Price to Free cash TTM 4.1
Price to book value 1.08
Price to sales TTM 0.91
Return on equity TTM 20.7%
EV to EBITDA 2.66

Diamond prices are now back to pre CV19 levels, this looks reasonably good, i think it's going to start to rise in the next few sessions. In at 40.5p first stop 45p target 70-80p.

I'm not into this one yet but still watching. Cash is $49.8m, in March it was $40.3m, they did mention all capital expenditure had been put on hold in a report I recall reading so I would have expected more cash building here during these exceptional times for PGM's with expenditure cut back. My notes a while ago did remind me to check cash generation so can anyone shed any light?

A fair article, but I do feel that the value here now is much closer to 60p than just 40p plus. 100k oz for £100m with 200k planned I see as half-price, PAF tends to prove this. EPS should be nearer 10p with a £35-40m profit. I spent quite a while yesterday targeting sub 31.9 but it suddenly became challenging mid-afternoon, then the larger £100k buys appeared nearer 32p-33p.
My opinion is that SC doesn't want to go below 32p, if you look at SC's previous sales from May to Dec 20 they are averaging 32p (28-38 range) aiming for a 50% min gain on the 22.5p average purchase price. Give it a few weeks and SC will be gone, then I expect there will be some timely news to coincide with their departure ;) and it will rise further, with the rise, investor focus will be on the opportunities ahead and not the challenges. I'm sure in a few months the odd "wish I bought more" will appear.

Fantastic value here irrespective of what it sells or makes, £40m profit for £100m, i find these things only tend to come along a few times a year and usually thanks to a seller, without a seller, they re-rate quickly. I'm not in love with it I just think its a great opportunity to make 100% in less than a year sell half and move on same same.

Chinese new year soon and most metals tend to have a dip around Chinese holidays, also approaching the top of a channel at 270 area so I feel an opportunity to buy is near. I did mention this one on SLP several months ago, does have a tendency to get very overbought and oversold. I'm in at around 170p with no intention to add or sell at this stage. HNY to you

TBTT, noticed your comment on another BB about expectations of an EPS of 70c i think it was. I'm just not quite getting that as I have an EPS of 21p based on forecast production 160k pgm 1.5mt ch, and the consensus of the 6 brokers is 24p current and 19p next. Whats missing?

This should have an upgrade in EPS soon it should be nearer 25p with Gas at 50p+ and Oil at $50. I do see a 100% gain in 12 months with patience here, but it's only when they get closer to the 100% income from the assets. Definitely one for the hotlist for 2021 anyway.

At current G&O prices that way, the EPS is around 8p so 40p+ seems fair. Very much depends on the update and cash for me, it was great at 15p it's just ok now.

The Chinese have got to do something about the chip situation. We know Rhodium is driving this rise, and cars in China are driving Rhodium. I'm not too bothered by what major shareholders do, I'm more interested in closely following any disruption to car manufacturing due to the lack of chips being forecast. I would keep a close eye on this area if you have a lot in PGM shares.

Regardless of how many times or ways I look at this, I'm still coming back with similar figures, factoring in the estimated finance costs from Coris Bank and the additional shares. I'm getting a fair value price of 60-70p now, 50-55p whilst finance payments are made to Coris if your strict on earnings, and 100-120p when it's up and running on 190k-200k production. Assumptions $1800 gold, AISC $950, 1.33USD. 395m shares. I'm wondering when people will begin to re-focus on the fundamentals rather than disappointment over a slight drop in POG which is now reversing and a 10% production miss. I'm more than happy to look at any Gold company but this looks like it has a huge margin of safety built-in at this price.

I do think it can be sustained also, one issue could be this shortage of chips in automotive which could reduce production capacity but china is saying 35% up next year I recall. let's see what happens but I like Gold, Copper, Iron ore and Rhodium. There is some talk about water treatment for ballast water in ships with 40k ships over 170 tons needing to meet certain new standards so extra Iridium and Ruthenium that are used in generating currents to produce chlorine will be in demand.

I think at current prices, EPS will be about 7p, using an average of the year about 5.6p that's why it's struggled to move and now struggling to break 40p IMO without a change, I've reduced to a more sensible sum near 35p having doubled like many. Cash won't be as good next quarter as it was stated before this was being conserved through no spending making the last quarter appear very good at 16p, drilling and expense have recommenced. 30p ish support struggle near 35-40p until things change. On the other hand, if retail doesn't work out the value and momentum buys without thinking then it could rise significantly on such a low free float.

Congratulations to those who held from such a low price brilliant demonstration of patience and conviction, I've followed it for several years but it wasn't that compelling until early 2020 with the Rhodium rise but like other 100%+ ones I could value it, and was astounded by its valuation anomaly. I've sold half my holding without causing any damage as I was in at under 38p with just over 1m shares so the profit is being deployed elsewhere but I retain my initial investment. Clearly some decent well-informed people posting and it's been an enjoyable journey and one far less painful than others I've doubled on. I've only sold as its one of my golden rules to sell half at 100% still a great company.

So a small 10% miss in production with a 10% drop in share price, ok that's fits if it was 70p yesterday but it was 30p so I'm not getting the logic of a 10% dip so I am adding more. It's not their fault CV19 came along or that there was a coup or lots of rain but the RNS was a bit too wet and this Dan chap needs a quick slap as he should have spotted this sooner. AIM rarely values things correctly, there are businesses out there rising 30% in a day on the "hope" that things will get back to normal in a few years but in the meantime, they continue to burn cash and then raise billions from banks just to stay alive a bit longer, everyone gets excited a bit longer. I flew out of BKK airport a few days ago a major travel hub and the entire airfield is littered with hibernating moldy jets with no sign they will fly anytime soon. Most of the countries in SE Asia have said borders are closed until they vaccinate their vulnerable people which won't be completed until late 2021 at the earliest. Banks here have given the entire population car and house loan-free periods, most people think it's a free lunch as they wipe their faces, the banks did say they could sustain this until November, and now it's December. The UK government is supporting 20% of the workers at a huge cost, then you have Brexit the elephant in the room. To me, it looks like a huge game of monopoly, there is no free lunch your bill will arrive soon in another format.
Anyway tales from the east over, I'm only in this company because it produces 100k oz of gold with an AISC sub $1000 and with gold above $1775 and looking attractive due to all the mess I think it's worth double this price and more as it increases production. I have EPS of around 9-11p and so do the brokers.

Probably "ballooned" due to the high level of gas you are spouting on here young man. 35p

i agree this is priced at $1200 gold, i say it's worth 70-95p im a buyer i now have 1m.

Seems to be about $30m more in the bank as a result of the PGM prices being above what analysts envisaged. So it might seem high but $30m or 11c seems to be fair. I'm not that bothered about the dividend myself, I obviously won't turn anything away but I'm after the growth. We know Rhodium is in short supply and there is a big demand from China, now with vaccines around the corner and the closure of other PGM production facilities then the price is supported very well and is likely to go higher. It will take a while for the systems to catch up as we ditch the previous quarter's results but the price to free cash is around 3-4x.