Member Info for bangrak

I've captured the monthly averages for all 3 PGM during 2020 from http://www.platinum.matthey.com/prices/price-tables# and have added them to my spreadsheet with all expenditures on. I'm using 69026 oz production, prill split 61% 25% 13%, 272m shares, and current FX rates with costs taken from 2 broker notes and previous results so I'm sure it's very accurate. The EPS it's giving me for 2020 so far is 18.8p and today 21.1p. Therefore using a simple PE of 5 (others are trading at 7-8) i get 94-106p but this excludes $55m in cash which is 16p a share. Run a screen to highlight any company with a SP above the 20,50,200 day and where the 50 is above the 200 day and rank them in order of FPE lowest and SLP is the cheapest on the market.

Pay the dividend & announce a buyback of 10% of the shares at a price in excess of 67p. Rhodium is $11,000 oz today and the basket price is $2601 oz, EPS is 21p. Rhodium is generating $100m pa in revenue now, so this has to be worth over 100p, the broker is expecting it to have $121m in the bank by 2022 which supports the $40-45m free cash calculations, management needs to be sensible but don't hog the cash, buybacks at higher share prices get my vote.

What drives the demand and therefore the price we get for our basket is car production in China, it's not linked to any metals falling or rising elsewhere and dips will be bought into.............BEIJING: China's auto sales in July climbed 16.4% from a year earlier, the fourth consecutive month of gains as the world's biggest vehicle market comes off lows hit during the country's coronavirus lockdown. Sales rose to 2.11 million vehicles, according to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. In July, sales of trucks, vans and other commercial vehicles, which constitute around a quarter of the overall market, surged 59.4%, while sales of passenger vehicles rose 8.5%.

For those who have already read the latest broker note, its clear to see that the broker thinks Rhodium is in huge demand and will remain like this for 3+ years, there isn't much of it about and China needs this. All boxes ticked here.

There is a new broker note out which is interesting, I'm unsure how Ben can calculate a target of 105p with a basket price of $1832 in Feb and then state in August the basket price is R44,473/oz or $2534 and still keep the target as 105p, that seems lazy to me. Not sure where your figures come from TBTT but its not what I'm seeing. https://www.metalsdaily.com/live-prices/pgms/

TBTT, Using current prices from metals daily I've now got a basket price of $2599 an oz and an EPS of 21p, it was 16p for months, i think this is worth more now or will be, 100p+ really and that's being conservative. Rhodium now 55% of basket price current PE is 2.41.

From the price action here there seems to be a majority focusing on technicals and trading bots that seem to be following the price of Platinum & Palladium, but have they both missed the basket? Yesterday Plat & Pall went down so obviously the basket price will have gone down also hence the dip?.......actually, Rhodium went up from $9100 to $9800 and the basket price went from $2377 to $2442 oz which is 35% above the basket used by Liberum to get 100p. I get it totally with oil algorithms as I was heavily into RRE last few years and a dip in oil was seen in the price in a few minutes. Assuming this was Sylvania gold and was producing 69k oz with total costs of 60% and a gold price of $2442 this would be about 140p+. I think we hold 50.8p and then go towards 65p hitting top of the channel as CFEP & JBER play together with it. Enjoy..

The driving force behind its current income and free cashflow of $50m appears to be Rhodium prices moving from $4600 an oz a year ago to $9100 oz now, each oz produced across all sites (prill split) is 61% platinum, 25% Palladium, and 13% Rhodium. Half of the revenue comes from Rhodium now. I think when Rhodium went up people thought it was not going to hold but it peaked at $13,000 but now does look stable at $8000-9000. I never knew Rhodium was this valuable and in such short supply until early this year when I read the Liberium note. Ask anyone if they want an Oz of gold or Oz of Rhodium and they say "what's rhodium" usually. I would rather have a pasty myself.

Interesting to see once again that SLP went up at the time Platinum and Palladium did and I see also that Rhodium went up past $9000 as i expected last week. What I am finding is there is a pretty good correlation between the share price of SLP and the price of the Palladium and Platinum production only, if you strip out Rhodium on my spreadsheet it's tracking this. I thought previously that the lack of a decent futures market for trading Rhodium might have made the algorithmic bots struggle and I still see so much emphasis on Platinum and Palladium. Sylvania Rhodium, please.

Basket price today is $2377 with Rhodium making up $1228 of that giving an EPS of 19.3p. Its worth remembering that the broker used $1832 to reach a target price of 100p and its been over $2200 for many months. 19.3p x 5 = 97p plus 16p in cash is 112p on a simpletons valuation. Run your winners Bangrak run your winners.

I've got shares I follow waiting to buy into, that have been overbought on RSI of 70+ for over a month, if the fundamentals are right they can stay this way look at ATYM as one example. I've said for a while to many people I know, this is generating $40-50m in free cash and worth an easy 80+p. I have nearly 1m shares and would not invest on that scale without weeks and weeks of digging and being sure there was 100% to be made at 38p-40p. Its been a slow starter but its moving now.

I've been in with about 1% since late last year, it's ok, IR is very poor its worth about 38p now i think, but it's very illiquid so I'm offloading on some of these spikes you lads are creating with your twitter pumping ;). 23p is top of a channel so don't expect more than that just yet, results in next week but won't be anything unknown as they dont seem to be generating much cash now O&G is low.

Puff, you have your opinion, but why should anyone be concerned about balance sheets? SLP was closed for half of the last quarter (6 of 12 weeks see rns) and managed to increase its cash position by $10m on the quarter, it now has $55m in cash. Its also paid for share buybacks and dividends and paid all its staff. To me that says huge fat cash cow for the cap even with 50% effort.

Scrap metals are not being shipped to China by major shippers, PGM's are back in demand and rising, china is producing as many cars as it was in Sep 2019 and is on course to rejoin its pre CV19 path by the end of 2020, Oil is cheap. To me, it looks like China the main consumer of our product is leading the world now and has unlike Europe got a grip on CV19.

It's interesting when I see people in the UK pointing the finger at other places and saying they are bad/struggling with CV19, I'm a proud Englishman and i live in SE Asia, to me, the UK looks a mess and had/has no control over CV19. Despite where i live having no infections for 100 days i still have to do a 14-day quarantine if I want to visit the UK. You have to be outside looking in to get it.

The basket price is still $2280 an oz giving an EPS of 18p which is higher than it's been for many weeks and both metals are firmly in uptrends, the exceptional results this week demonstrated a $10-13m a quarter cash generation which is remarkable for the cap here & gave this a much wider audience. If people are buying and selling on movements in PD & PT and macro events then that's their decision, basket price here is firmly up and is 30-35% higher than the others. It will soon be above 50p again as we've cleared all the sub 52p sellers, which leaves no meaningful room to buy back lower. I would be expecting JLP & THR holders to be thinking if those are the best homes for cash in 2020 with the possibility of large special dividends and no need to raise more cash.

Craig you did post several times at 38p saying it was definitely going down and it went up to 52p, so it's now going to 40p apparently despite an EPS of 18p and $55m cash so i make that 60.75p in 3 weeks.

Good to see such a solid group of PI's here willing to hold onto their holdings rather than trade them for 20% and funding JBER & CFEP on the spread LOL

Liberium has $1832 oz as the basket price in their estimates when giving 100p+ target, they need to look at this as its consistently 30% below the actual basket price making the real EPS here about 18p today as the basket price is $2290. $55m in the bank with an EPS of 18p and stable prices on the 3 PGM's. Basket price adjustments and target of 130p coming i feel.

A link I posted last week shows the substantial increase in car production & sales in china, recovering to sep 2019 levels. The car industry in China is one of the major consumers of PGM's. The interesting thing is what Maersk has done recently banning scrap cargos. To me, this looks very interesting for all metals inc PGM's and gives considerable positive support to the prices of Platinum Palladium and Rhodium going forward. I have a feeling Rhodium might see some considerable movement upwards again in the next few months. Today the EPS here based on current prices is 18p and with $47m in cash anything below 80p is laughable, this has to re-rate very soon and the valuation now is looking more sensible and in noway stretched at 110p. 66-70p first by September however.

https://www.recyclingtoday.com/article/maersk-recycling-scrap-shipping-china-2020-2021/

Rhodium makes up 50% of SLP income now, the Rhodium quarterly average price is down about 15% on Q1 ($10,298) v ($8,280) and production was down due to CV19 for 2 mths (15%). So a basic calculation from previous quarterly income is. $43m (q1) minus 15% off half income = $39.77m, minus 15% for downtime (CV19) = $33.8m or £27.48m minus expenses/tax = £10.99m net profit or £43.97m pa. Divide by 272m shares = 16p EPS x 5 = 80p.
Calculation on my spreadsheet using today's PGM prices which do see stable, gives a basket price of $2137 oz on 68,000 oz, so 17p EPS. again 80p easily, probably 100p with $47m cash+. Interesting to see that some other PGM miners are currently trading on a price to free cash of 7, they have considerably less cash, pay no dividend, and will need to raise more funds, so short term IMO this is the one that screams cheap cash to me.

O2B, SLP were up 56% on last results and cash was up about $14m in a quarter if you allow for the share buybacks. JLP cash has gone up about £4.5m in 6 months. There are reasons for this but there is a significant difference in free cash generation here. I think JLP looks fair at 4p but good for much more in 2021+

Demand for the PGM metals from china is looking promising with manufacturing and sales now at Sep 2019 levels https://tradingeconomics.com/china/car-production https://tradingeconomics.com/china/car-registrations

Good morning from paradise. This retraced to 38p on a 50% Fibonacci level so i don't ignore technicals but do balance them with fundamentals. Yesterday there was a Macd crossover of the signal and macd line indicating a strong change in trend. The volatility stop was broken at 43.4 indicating it’s in a new upward trend (my favorite). 20, 50, 100 ,200 day EMA were all passed and the rsi nearing 50 having broken above a descending trend from 28th may. It’s in a very clear channel now towards 66p imo in september, perhaps a new one has been carved out that wasn’t spotted by systems/traders before and that dip was perhaps many having the wrong channel? To me, it looks very good technically. Fundamentally the basket price is, and has been consistently above $2000 oz for months, so multiply this by 68,000oz take off about 60% for ease, divide by 272m shares and you have a PE of 16p. Add in the cash of $48m (14p a share) and this is really worth 87p right now on a dull PE of just 5 without cash (100p with). I’ve read several 30+ page broker notes on PGM miners this week and all state PGM prices to remain elevated for about 3 years. So SLP....Sell Volspruit for $40m, there will be $100+m in cash, announce a large special dividend of 20p then we watch the price rise considerably. Please do alert me to anything remotely like this out there, i do have a few i'm in but this looks special to me hence me being overweight in it. So a solid base at 38-40p with a target of 100% and this BB does seem intelligent, sensible, and well reasoned.

OK update. Cash balance is flat over 3 months, 2 months-ish until the results of the case, and might not get the $11.8m back anyway. Unfortunately, I've found through personal experience that Investor relations are very poor here and needs to be improved. continue to hold but with less conviction than before. stale bull seems to be offloading on any rise.

I'm watching people buy companies worth £100m with no profits, limited cash in the bank, future funding uncertain, breathing a story that things might return to normal or at best 70% of pre CV19 in 2 years. SLP is projected to pay a 5p dividend in 2020 and 8.8p dividend in 2021 12.5% and 22%. My UK property portfolio which is HMO pays me 2% growth if I'm lucky and 6.65% income after tax. Would i sell my portfolio 8% and put the cash in here at 40p 12.5% plus growth? well on that return yes I would if it was quick to do, the price here is backed by its assets and a 5p dividend is £13.6m off the cash balance so easily affordable, SLP has $47.8m at today's FX rates based on the results so more now i guess. I think it will sell some assets now prices are stable, pay special dividends nearer to a total of 8p ps, and continue to churn out a boring $40-50m profit. Good point on the rhodium issue TBTT regarding the enclosed mines. Plenty of oil companies out there needing $45+ oil to turn a profit but trading with market caps of £300m.