Member Info for bangrak

I think its wrong to delay the RNS confirming production has to be stopped, several other SA miners have today confirmed that it applies to all mining companies, would have expected more from SLP and the nomad.

$63m in cash with a market cap of £34m. These unloved shares will become loved soon.

The average split across the operation is 62% Platinum, 25% Palladium, 13% Rhodium. At current prices that gives me a basket price of $2081 p oz. 79238 oz pa. $164m revenue, net about $65m or £53m so i think this is worth a very easy 93-112p.

During low gas prices in 2019 JKX has, increased cash by $10m in 6 months, introduced a more experienced and stable BOD, spent $26m on capital expenditure from cashflow generated from $100+m sales , production up 20%, appointed a new broker SP Angel who writes research, has $20m in cash, 90m BOE in reserves (huge for cap), $12m due from a court settlement, a 10% ownership of UBN supposedly valued at $30-40m, 2020 drilling activity in Ukraine, debt free from February 2020 and a low free float of 16% meaning any buying or selling is exaggerated, revenue in 2020 likely to be $120m+. Book value 70p+

Realistic value.........60-70p........current value..........14p.

Generally, i don't say much but I will today......We all know what went on before and just how badly the banks acted years ago. I worked for a bank, I know what went on, i had to sign a piece of paper when i walked out so i didn't speak about it for a while, these people will do anything to rob you. I know people sailing about the world who made millions in that crisis who got paid to walk away and say nothing. You have a US president trying to introduce a law to make US firms stop using china, he almost gave a warning something was going to happen when he said the Chinese supply chain is broken like an egg 2 months ago, he is like my old father after a few pints. He doesn't want high oil prices, he hates the idea china will surpass the US and I think he will do anything to get what he wants and so will his people. Some say he might even be benefitting from these swings in markets, the oil price for the Saudi float was amazingly good. We had a brief period of calm after the UK vote, the signing of trade agreements and it really did look like things would go well, I had oil down to go to $72. Then all of a sudden a sharp price rise, oil was breaking out.........this isn't supposed to happen......... then we get the virus.....Europe and the US don't care, it's confined to Asia.....then it gets into Europe and the news agencies push you stories of deaths and schools closing. Well, I live close to the area where all this started and I wore a mask and was careful as we didn't know what was happening, what i can say is this........... I genuinely see no evidence with my own eyes (and i travel around this area) that this is anything more than a very weak bit of flu that the world is now looking for, this is supported by WHO, who say 80% get mild symptoms. I've done my research and there are no sudden sharp increases in respiratory issues or Flu other than from pollution this way. The west is now going through what we went through 3-4 weeks ago and that is uncertainty, speculation, fake news, face masks and looking at Chinese people and avoiding going near them with OCD handwashing. Occasionally It rains cash so make the most of it, it's raining now, 1800p+ of cash for 1400p and 20k boepd with a chair that has ambition and 29%. Amazing it's here but not for long, 1m OPEC production cut and then in 3-4 weeks the realization the world is still open and the virus isnt some biological experiment that went wrong, it will take a few weeks though we're ahead of you...

Yes very depressing, it looked very depressing and very boring at 550-600p when I bought 50k shares, it also looked depressing under 1700p. I was really depressed when I read we had more cash than the cap and that production was 20k. What doesn't look depressing is my profit and cash position, I love being depressed by shares, I find the more I get depressed the more I buy the more I make and I've repeated this cycle for over 25 years. The elation of the last week or so was clearly too much for many old chaps like me so I took some off the table, I'm sure others did too, way too many posts and way too much twitter chat even though I'm not on it. Slow and steady is the way or Doberman & lunchbox will be fighting again and clogging up the feed with small talk.

NI why do you need to wait for the next set of results, gas has averaged around 44p for this year and oil at $64, therefore profit will come in around the £74m mark IMO making it worth (as I have said previously) around 170p, but will rise to 210p in the next year or so as the sharing agreement gives SQZ more, I've based this on a gas price of 36p to be safe. No idea where you are getting 25p from despite the link, ICE clearly states all the contracts daily. Probably a gap to close on the Gas chart from 29th August.

Cenkos EPS next 2 years flat at 3.8p, updated today.

Lots of debt, lots of selling last year with no TR1, inside ownership is too high, it doesn't deserve a PE of much anyway, 21-22p max here IMHO. Followed this one for years and its dull. 2022 it might be better. Rise to 21p then falls back.

Janet Copolo retains 2,886,396 shares (7.2%) and is subject to a hard lock-in agreement prohibiting sale until 3rd September 2019. Considering her family sold most of their shares then this could be quite a drag on the price should she now decide to sell.

Financial liabilities of US$115.0 million (2017 - nil) within current liabilities and US$209.5 million (2017 - US$3.8 million) within non-current liabilities comprise amounts ***projected to be paid under the BKR agreements***. The current element comprises US$20.2 million (2017 - US$3.8 million in non-current financial liabilities) of total drawings under the prepayment facility with BP plus amounts of US$94.8 million ***estimated to fall due under the net cash flow sharing arrangements over the course of 2019***. Amounts identified as currently due under both the prepayment facility and the net cash flow sharing arrangements are ***directly related to production volumes and sales prices actually achieved over the year***. The non-current element comprises further contingent and deferred amounts ***the bulk of which*** are also ***directly related to future asset volume and price performance***.

At 35p (reasonable non-ramping 2019 gas ave) the half share is around £34m, at 50p its £72m, Erskine is around £45m, this is based on costs as stated by the company, $@1.26, and oil at $65. Hence why my opinion (and that of peel) is that this is comfortably worth around 170p. Cash generation is as stated around $10-11m pm, maybe dropping to $8 if we remain sub 33p gas for a while.

Correct on one thing NI, JKX does not have the same cash yet, but far greater reserves and now they are producing a greater net profit, JKX is producing about £24m net profit (with new well) as of today and RPT £16m. The market does not value things on its liabilities alone. Suggesting anyone who may have switched into JKX now as having made a mistake is questionable, you were saying this was a good buy at 60p so let's not forget that questionable comment. We shall wait and see who is correct as we will on Cravens lot, but at today's date i say JKX is the better place for money of the two as that is 80-100p and this is about 50p if they keep VAS, no VAS and its 40p.....hence why it is sat at 40p I guess. I don't hold either, most of my funds are in RRE and they will stay there for most of 2019. Impartial & factual views from Krok, quite rare on a BB, nice to see.

$155-160k is my projection with an EPS of 22p plus cash (48p a share) making it worth around 176-200p, unfortunately, I'm not seeing much evidence in valuations of cash being factored in so sticking with 170p area.

Scott what has the rand got to do with it, this is Brazil?

20% of gold production was rolled over into the last 1/4 making it look very good, there is a deferred consideration of US$12 million payable for the acquisition of Coringa which falls due in December 2019 so that has to be included in any valuation.

Has ND even considered the outcome of the VAS hearing, a chartist who has done Zero research who has been asked to give it a plug I think........with VAS its 57p no VAS and its 43p on current production inc cash IMO, unless anything material changes it's just a technical trade at 36p to mid 50's with a hearing weighing it down. Things change but good luck if you are in here in a big way JKX would seem to be the route I would take but I'm not in either ATM.

Looking at the volume 9th April and the fact that the offer came in exactly 1 year after the drop i would say the company knew this was coming and the maximum anyone had to offer was 151p. That's AIM for you

NI these liabilities you mention are projected payments related to the BKR deal, they are estimated, $94.8 million is estimated to fall due under the net cash flow sharing arrangements over the course of 2019. The rest is for future payments, again these are not exact and are related to prices and volumes.

Estimated & net cash flow are key here and so is the cash going up $36.9m in 3 months.

Q1 about 44p Q2 about 40-41p which is what i based my worth of 170-180p on with Oil at $69 so let's not be overdramatic NI, Erskine alone gives this a value of around 95p. We dont have any complicated legal disputes here other than a group of complicated chart people messing about with trades targeting 105 or 115. Mind the gap

In my opinion, what is happening is the market is pricing SQZ on a conservative scenario with gas at 35p and oil $69 giving a value (according to my sheet) of 146p at a PE of 8 not including the cash. However, my various valuation models which include fx rates, blends of Oil and gas prices for the year and expenses indicates to me 41p is a more realistic price for gas with 48p being the 2019 average so far, continual chatter about gas being 33-35p is stating the obvious, but it looks like it's bottomed there to me on the chart. About 10-15% of investors take the time to work out the exact valuation and read all broker notes and opinions (i am one) therefore I'm generally not surprised when results come out. This looks like its worth about 180p at this time (ex cash) but i revise this weekly and am looking at more of a 2xxp exit price. As for market makers, they are just market traders who like to generate volatility for themselves. CFEP & JBER are IMO two of the most aggressive when it comes to this and Odey as an II tend to trade aggressively. This is a traders favorite, generally, liquidity is good just trade the pattern and ignore anything that anyone says including myself.

"UK and Western Gas prices are doing the worst, they don't attract the same premiums"

There has been an approximate halving of prices since the peak across eastern Europe also so being negative towards UK prices and positive towards eastern Europe prices is a little bias NI. This is about what its worth at current prices and even if you calculate the Oil & Gas here at current prices there is room for movement here according to my spreadsheet.