Member Info for bangrak

Big drop also in Ukranian gas prices but that one needs a bit of ramping so let's forget that shall we NI and ignore the fair value there of just 50p, easy to find the gas prices there too, but those are being ignored it seems and cash cow etc etc is just being blurted out. 189p I have here at these current prices so this gets my cash currently while RRE is holding half my funds.

This is a traders favorite, mind the obvious channel, really doesnt need anyone with a "told you so" attitude.

Cash up $7m in 1 year and another block of cash from exploration costs of $19m received (again) after accounts closed, based on production for 2019 estimates this is currently worth about 150-160p imo, not sure what kind of budging you want but 20% in a year seems to be about it.

charts and supports, obviously this is a trading favorite, i added at 113p and will add more if it goes there again. Its worth 240p on current output and prices IMO and that is 100% gain, little else interests me other than SQZ and RRE in O&G, i might buy RPT if it drops to 30p as that's only worth 55-60p as it stands, nickel that is why it dropped from 60p.

Based on their anticipated production for 2019 as stated, their % ownership of the assets and current Oil & FX prices it appears to me this is worth about 140-150p at current prices, it's ok but not cheap unless it/oil does something more in 2019 then it will range trade between a floor around 110p and 140-150p. Cheap would be 75p. There are better O&G ones out there IMHO that offer greater returns, management own more shares are safer and much cheaper. Nothing wrong with it just cash seems to be guzzled up and the buybacks are supporting it a little here in anticipation of the election outcome.

Jimmy, can you confirm where you got this from ($30 $20).

20th Sep RNS.....

Average operating expense per boe produced was $33.81 compared to a budget of $32.60

Rather than speculate have you actually worked out what this is worth, maybe spend some time doing this yourself then you will know why it was sold off and has dropped 30%.

good summary WJ, ok but not cheap, 48p looks about ok value here and that is where it went in December. PE 20 is a bit steep 10-12 a bit more conservative.

SW its not producing much free cash during a time when oil was high. outlook is 14-17k for 2019 for elcrest but eland only get 45% of this due to the ownership structure of elcrest, this is often misleading despite the loan repayments.

Cash balance of $36.7 million at end-2017
6th April 18 cash $35m
30 June 2018 Cash of $29.8 million However, post period end ELA has received $50.5 million in cash receipts from our July and August liftings totaling 679,000 bbls ($74.37 pb). A further 350,000 bbls have been lifted in September which will provide an additional $26.6 million cash ($76pb) when funds are received in October.

Today EOY 2018 cash is $42.6m, maybe this is the reason.

It will be 9000bopd net so allowing for some downtime of 20 days pa and oil at $65 minus some for expenses etc on a low PE of 6-7 its worth IMO about 180p when the oil is flowing next year, right now its 6000bopd so now about 120-130p hence the selling at 130p recently IMO. Brokers have EPS at 21p & 38p so 147p and 266p but they are using higher oil prices.

I still feel it will be challenged until after the elections in February. The recent buybacks and director buys are appealing but i just have some doubts niggling away here and need to see some cash generation rather than placings and further debt.

Where is the Cash going?

End of 2017 Cash balance of $36.7 million
6th April 18 cash $35m
30 June 2018 Cash of $29.8 million**
This is during a time when 100% of cash goes to ELA due to the loan payments

Results RNS.....**
However post period end we have received $50.5 million in cash receipts from our July and August liftings totalling 679,000 bbls ($74.37 pb). A further 350,000 bbls have been lifted in September which will provide an additional $26.6 million cash ($76pb) when funds are received in October.

Cash in RNS 29th Nov $30m??

The joint corporate broker announcement is something to be slightly wary of.

The RNS mentions a sale and a buy for the same volume of shares to Lombard Odier, not quite sure why anyone thinks this is a NED buying shares.

ELA own 45% of Elcrest and Starcrest own the other 55% so in reality ELA get 20.25% of total production or 45% of whats credited to elcrest, on what they have said today OML 40 should give ELA 6075bopd and i recall the cost PB was $30 so a quick calculation (oil $76, fx$1.31, 220m shares) gives me an EPS of 20p and as this is Africa a PE of 7 is reasonable so its worth 140p max. However ELA i recall have the rights to the cashflow until a loan to them of $380m is paid off so revenue and cashflow look better for a few years. Correct me if i am wrong but i cannot see exceptional value here. 120-140p seem right and that is where it went recently.

Gas at 0.61 Oil at $75 gives me an EPS of 41p, broker consensus is 54p as they are working on higher prices so i have my target as 350p to 430p, this seems to be a reasonable 2019 target IMHO.

Its a steal if the elections in Feb are peaceful and oil supply isn't interrupted however with uncertainty there it might struggle and people might look to safe places to invest until then so i personally cannot see this getting back to 130p that quickly, but if Feb passes without too many issues its worth investing.

I value it at 85-86p on oil @ $78 so will be adding more at that level or below. I ideally i'm targeting 350-400p down the line but im comfortable this meets my 100% 12 months criteria as it did at 20p... 400% actually which was pleasant. Nice to see some decent discussion and research and not random one liners.

Why is the price of coal rising good for a business that uses coal to produce power? thats like saying the price of oil rising is good for airlines.

This is just a very late notification, Baronsmead VCT were shown as a shareholder of around 20% Sep 17. They have probably only just notified.

How do you value Erskine at 30-40p on $70pb even if you factor in 2 months a year of downtime to be safe?

On 11 July 2017 Colin Evans' investment manager, HSBC, sold in error without his consent or knowledge; � 108,398 ordinary shares in the Company (held in an ISA in the name of Colin Evans) at a price of 27.5 pence per share, a total of �29,808.95. � 106,968 ordinary shares in the Company (held in an ISA in the name of his wife, Fiona Evans) at a price of 27.5 pence per share, a total of �29,415.70. And now he has accidentally bought them back at 13p, whatever your opinions on this it stinks and must be considered when dealing with this company.