Member Info for bangrak

Having gone back over the results and outlook I see nothing to explain this drop except what TP has highlighted below and that is a large group of people following one man who suddenly found the bottom dropped out of the support when someone clumsily ditched 2x £70k of shares and at the same time the 450k order was removed one afternoon, this damaged the chart, that led to more dumping by systems as SL were hit, was that organized i wonder. Whoever had that order at 450k now has prices lower which explains why i kept getting outbid on the drops........Industry Forward PER DWF 8, Keystone 19, Gateley 9...........Knights is just 3, that's too cheap. Stopped just below the actual SL price RB gave. also so very interesting.

The consensus of 5 brokers should be fairly reliable rather than just one house broker, and even factoring in some reduction to earnings to be pessimistic of 10% that they don't forsee it's exceptionally cheap on a FPE of 3.58. Personally, I think thats too cheap.

Having followed this one very closely the last few months and been able to sell large quantities of shares just 5 days ago not far below the price at the time, I think someone is in distress or distressed about the UK and by the action of the price i would say its a US investor and they have triggered the sh@t bots into action to trash it. What's interesting is when it suddenly drops after midday I cannot buy any with my broker. I'm constantly getting orders rejected which usually happens when there isn't anything left to buy. Very odd indeed.

Having spent considerable time the day this dropped calculating numbers with limited details, I'm now in a much better position to fully understand this business and up 32% which has paid me well for my time. I think the disposables should be excluded from all calculations to get a fair value so that is what I've just done. Having looked at my numbers and those of the analysts, I think their (ED) fair price 2025 would be nearer 180p. However, for me, I see fair value at 140p possible spike to 170p with a base around 98p. I don't see 200p or 250p without some new information. Numbers are not far off the frantic calculations a few weeks ago. It appears to me however the market has suddenly forgotten about the proposed ban and got a bit wrapped up in upgrades which i personally feel are a little optimistic. No offense ED but I think your numbers (whilst current) seem to ignore very likely events. Gap has also appeared at 100p so will that be closed on any news of an actual ban? DYOR as always.

Just a bit of patience, way too many interested at 86p forced buyers up, seems to be stepping up now just like we said...

Sunak means dog where i live............. Rhodium going up is the only thing good for SLP, Q1 average is $4.1k meaning they make virtually no free cash. To get to the $13k the broker thinks as an average you need a whopping rise. The only thing that will change the price of Rhodium are mines closing as they cannot survive with a low basket and/or China suddenly reverting from a 1-2% monthly growth rate in EV sales (36% ev sales July) and making ICE cars again. Electric car registrations in EU went up 118.1% to 165.2 thousand units in August, 21% of the market.

There is no "time will tell here" It is very obvious if you care to dyor, any idea how many sq km of rocks need to be dug up using average grades in CU just to provide the copper requirements in a 100% EV world?....who has all the magnet material REM's.....before we discuss environment you need to consider whats happening in the real world & that cars don't do damage .....Coal-fired power stations in India & China cause all the problems, that is not changing soon so your EV adoption in the UK does absolutely sweet FA even if it was pushed back 500 years. China & India call the shots on climate.

If they released the results at 7 a.m. and gave investors time to digest the details things might have been different. Clearly, there is value here but trying to hide the results would concern me and then it leaves doubt over the actual spring recovery mentioned. My first mortgage was 11% and 3x my gross income, 5% rates are supposedly off-putting as the average price is 10x the average salary. My feeling as an ex-landlord is property prices need to come back to about 7-8x the average salary as the yields on BTL are unattractive. £240k-250k 9-10% decline by Jan 26 is my opinion which matches that of the GBAHP ave price chart falling back into a trend.

I'm not in this but on my watchlist, 48-52p about right until things change. However, releasing results midday to hide them isn't exactly good. Quite a time for anyone to begin to look at takeovers, although my personal view is that the UK property market has got a 2-3yr decline coming. I think Spring 2024 is a bit optimistic.

Current Trading & Outlook

Significantly lower levels of reservations in private housing due to demand being impacted by continued high interest rates, mortgage affordability and reduced homebuyer confidence, which the Board does not expect to materially improve before Spring 2024

I'm reading several RNS's from building-related companies and not seeing anything in the outlook that suggests anything negative is expected. I've asked all my UK contacts in the construction industry and they report the same, they are busy things are OK. We shall see what HSS has to say soon.

Appears to be some significant orders in 85-86p area but not a lot above spare to buy in sizable quantities, usually, that's a good sign to me being outbid. Every week i look at this it keeps standing out as way too cheap. I suppose it depends on what octopus is doing but if they intend to hold their position this should step up soon.

Dartron, it's rare i see someone discuss something on LSE who actually knows what they are doing, well done very refreshing. A bulletin board full of sensible people discussing reality but the majority don't want the reality they want a fluffy fan club and endless speculation. The price action here appears to me that someone just said let's get it down at any cost by bots trashing the order book on any weakness, traders bailed at the usual points. I saw it as a buy myself.

93.4p & 98.5 i see but I'd say it's worth 120-140 myself, been following this one patiently for weeks & missed 82p as had trouble buying multiple times with IG but got some just below 90p today. Stupid really as i should have gone on the exchange.

Https://www.heraeus.com/media/media/hpm/doc_hpm/precious_metal_update/palladium_standard/The_Palladium_Standard_2023.pdf

Those filtering me for saying it as it is, won't see this so that's their problem, Ignorance to them is bliss, but have a look at P36 released today which matches what Trading Economics has been quoting for many weeks. Do the maths on this in the basket, and ask yourself why the house broker can still use $13k when the industry has $3950. Simon Thompson is totally wrong on this at present as he is quoting the house broker numbers. Soon house broker will have to follow Edison into a downgrade, This will be done discreetly unlike Edison did in a note (well done to them for being honest) Then you stockopedia fans will see the downgrade.

Who is actually misleading you here?

I'm trying to look at this logically with the information I have, I'm not seeing huge profit reductions here just an overreaction (understandably).....extracts from research note........Supreme has announced a master distributor agreement for the Elf Bar and Lost Mary disposable vaping ranges which we estimate could add c.£25m in revenue and c.£2.0m in (adj.) EBITDA in FY24, accounted in the Branded Household Goods / Other product segment. (£2m ebitda really is that all?)

The launch of a range of disposable vapes, augmenting the hero e-liquid range, generated a reported £12.0m in additional revenue. ( i assume £1-2m gone there too)

I'm not seeing huge losses here in the bottom line these products are not exactly high margin like liquids (unaffected) as the info says, i say probably 3-4m off net anticipated for 2024 is likely so £13m net eps 11p, same net as i calculated earlier. And yes as said people just stop using disposable and move to non-disposable therefore more juice sales. my target price changed from 180p to 150p.

I'm new to this one but looking at the equity development note in july I'm seeing revenue anticipated from disposable vapes in 2024 as £37m from a total of £84m for vaping, removing this you still have non-disposable vaping and the other products so about £156m revenue, so net profit around £13m not £17m or an eps of 11p so trading on a pe now of 8 against industry 15 and historical 15-16 for supreme so 140-160p seems fair. quick calculations so will continue buying. Correct me if ive missed anything.

Yes see that now thanks

Have i missed something or was that an opportunity to buy in here for another 70-100%, position started.

We can spend months building a decent position in a very illiquid business, What I do know is that it's not possible for me to buy a certain quantity in one go but I can easily sell that quantity and get a price a little way below where we are. I have no warrants to sell and neither does anyone I've spoken to about this business. What we all agree on (including an oil geologist) is that this discovery looks pretty good. Whatever happens, there is no need to chase it upwards plenty of people waiting with the bag open. It can do what it wants and no one will be able to drive it up or down, i read all 3 new broker notes yesterday the target price now is 42p cash in 2024 $42m. My own numbers tell me 42p & $41m. Patience is not inaction.

Gross basket $2086 net basket $1534 (25% smelter costs cont liability etc)

Production 75,469

4e revenue was $116m (net basket x production)

Revenue by-products $13.2m

Net interest $5.2m

opp costs $62m

G&A $2.7m

Minus taxes/royalties gives you…….$45m (yep sheet says similar)

PE 5.5

This was with Rh at an average $13k

https://matthey.com/products-and-markets/pgms-and-circularity/pgm-management/

Use today's PGM prices with current prill splits the gross basket is $1398 net is $1035

Do the maths using the above expenses ignore the brokers or some media pump or journalists who also use stockopedia and think it's gospel (yeh $20m pe 12) and don’t be surprised next quarter, It’s not difficult to do but seeing people read last year's results and say Oh it's not too bad says you are not looking forward but back and you cannot do that in commodities or rely on broker estimates using $13k Rh or charts, its supply, and demand, wake up, you think SLP will buy back up here or support a 62p cash adjusted 4 pe? use your brains apply logic. See what happens after the next results when those who don't read this bb or have no idea see the low RH effect drop...... an opportunity then for a trade maybe but the RH price is key.

This also has $15m cap ex pa so if you also added this in there isn’t much cash flowing through this now. You will see next quarter.. So when the Q results drop just remember you were told weeks ago. Being told works both ways as I told you in 2019-20 this was worth 2-3x more. Impossible to be positive about future growth without decent RH prices, that relies on auto demand from ICE.

Mind the channel anyway It looks like it's very near the edge....