Member Info for bangrak

Hi CYB,

The structure of the BHP AA offer indicated where you should be invested in the commodity sector. The parts of AA not wanted says it all to me and confirms my view that the transition metals are the place to be.

Ben @ Liberum said this on the 25th Oct which was 2 quarters ago, Rh was $4700....

"We believe that the rhodium price will lift substantially in the coming quarters (Commodity priceDECK (61 pgs)) as destocking by glass fibre and automaker OEMs comes to an end. There is further upside risk from supply disruptions in South Africa and Russia"

That seems to justify Ben maintaining a ridiculously high net profit for 24 which IMO has been impossible to attain for 6 months without $13k RH for the last 6m. In Q4 and FY it will be interesting to see how they cover this. When the net comes in below $10m and you have given $33m you look incompetent and also untrustworthy, a bit like that bloke at IC.

The FYTD net basket is $1031 according to my sheet, if I use the current prices i get $1052.

The AIC was $1037. That is not much cash flow. RH needs to move significantly, small movements in other PGMs don't make a huge difference. I see the trade but don't see the fundamentals to support this level. let's see if the broker chases it up more. My view is that buying above 60p is wasting SLP shareholder cash and they should save this money for the reversal.

For me fundamentally 60p is generously fair on the current basket, technically 69p is as much as you should be considering at this stage if you do charts. Been driven up by the broker defending the 20 day, traders and systems have done the rest. 51p to 69p is enough for me. Gains everywhere

Was appointed to JKX Oil & took it private, appears this will be delisted also.

Monty i completely get the idea of 240p if the disposables were not banned, however as my research has shown to me, almost everyone who was smoking disposables last year has stopped, the attraction was the unique lost mary flavors and the huge growth. £225m rev minus disposables £75m retaining 15% gives me £161m rev £22.5m ebitda £14.8m net pe 8 100p 12 152p. I think the market is saying 135p is about right for this as it stands. Im n ot sure why the broker is making such a hash of the buybacks, simply defend the 100p area with all the funds, not buying back then seeing a 20% drop, looks a bit frantic to me.

Edison 26/2/24 expects $19.1m or $16.7m in H2....down here SLP cannot generate much more than $18m a year, they should have done $8-9m in H1 according to my numbers but that didn't happen so I'm wondering where the profit is going. A mining business producing a product that isn't very fashionable now with a reasonable amount of cash IMO would trade on a low PE sub 5 cash adjusted 2-3 is reasonable and that is 43-49p. If the broker wastes the $3m on buybacks above 50p and pushes up the price then it is wasted cash once more. Use the month to defend and add stability to the bottom creating a solid POC, if prices rise then add another $3m.

**22/2/24** Page 3 broker financial model........net income 2024 $33.1m.

H1 2024 is over with $3m done & the broker still thinks $30m in H2 is possible & IC/ST is sharing this target in a paid-for article. Fluff or reality you decide what you read.

The highest volume since sep 2021 but it's down 7%. You ignored the warnings its 40p

The net basket price is $1029, and the AIC is $1037. Several other PGM miners are now making structural changes to their business because of fundamental changes in PGM's. Meanwhile, the broker and SLP seem to be brushing this off and still in a note released today expecting $33m net this year after doing $3m in H1 with flat prices.

"Our goal is the same, the broker's goal is not the same"

House broker updated with expectations of $33m net profit in 2024 when half of that has been completed with $3m done, that's a pretty big H2 expected Ben @ Liberum, that's $17k Rh today remaining there for the entire H2. Nothing is impossible but this appears to be in that category.

Consensus now from CG & Auctus (zeus not updated)

Production

2023 2228/ 2024 4664/ 2025 5799.

Cash

2024 $21.2m 2025 $66.5m

Target 47.2

Bangrak 42p

The information below can be found on the internet takes 5 minutes.......

Average vaper puffs 135-150 day over a year this is 54750 puffs

LM/disposable sales would be 91 units to hit their 54k puffs or £546 (600 puffs 91 units @ £5.99)

Pod system & juices 1.82 units to hit same puff level or £91 (30k puffs 1.82 units £50

How will 70% or even 40% of revenue be retained in disposables with an 83% drop to hit the same puffs?

I think it's wise to pay attention to whatever anyone says when they offer research, i wouldn't ignore what a broker says but the assumption with some brokers is that SUP has this loyal customer base who will just go ahead and buy the pod systems and juices from them having been loyal lost mary vapers, i call it softening the blow. Your individual who has been buying disposables almost certainly has a pod system already and buys juices from a local shop on some backstreet or via the web. I guess the pause in buybacks above 120p might suggest that the future is not as great as the paid brokers make out. When i came back to the UK last summer for a visit, i was amazed how in 1 year almost everyone i knew was puffing on vapes especially disposables lost marys......everyone whom I'm in contact with who was a Lost Mary vaper has stopped using them anyway and just uses refillable pods they already owned. This significant switch that's expected isn't what is being made out IMO. I think a 15% disposables sales to pod systems and juices allows for the vastly different price-to-puff ratio of disposables, the lost mary fad ending, and it considers that most disposable vapers already have pods.

I've now banked a 61% gain and I'm out, didnt get the 140 i wanted but close, i don't like the system Octopus appears to be using here, was my second largest holding but I want a price to sell all day every day in descent volumes, often struggled to get a price to sell here. With Octopus in the driving seat, they can take it wherever they want.

Appears the CA x3 was met yesterday at 50p and that IMO allows for a 20% trade to my current fair value 61, would be surprised if SLP did not buy back some shares yesterday. Fewer people here (inc myself) will consider this overvalued so 50p area is a good place for SLP to defend and make better use of the $6m interest income. All about the TA now.

After some analysis I'm still sticking with the $5m a quarter as a base, current per is 9.8, cash adjusted (CA) 2 is 44p 3 is 50p 5 is 61p...its hitting its head on that CA 5 ratio so perhaps it needs a 20% gain to entice traders into this one. Based on a wide view i would be cautious about jumping in immediately myself until at least there was a distinct improvement in Rh or it bottomed between cash at 32p and the CA 3 50p That is good value despite the targeted $14m profit not $32m as i see it. Also worth looking at the monthly MACD and this will explain why the price has slid for many months. That IMHO needs to bottom first. The destocking by automakers has not happened as predicted yet, but it could. Worth remembering that my analysis suggesting 60p a few months ago was laughed at and many suggested blocking me now it's in the 50's. PGM's have done this, no comments from anyone will make ANY difference up or down. Our goal is the same, the broker's goal is not the same.

I've just had a quick look at the house broker update.....Page 3 for 2024 profit after tax is shown as $32m. So you have 2024 H1 over and a PAT of $3.3m and the broker still thinks that the total PAT will still be $32m. Exactly how do you manage to get a clear profit of $28m in the next 2 quarters mr "paid" broker?

Over to Simon for an IC update, and then more fresh meat enters the corporate grinder.

The issue here is AIC is now $1096, net basket is $1047. Down here it's Zero cash as mentioned, they need to do something, costs are now too high.

"For FY25 we assume that 70% of Supreme’s revenue from disposable vapes will transition to reusable pod system and refillable 10ml devices"

How is this possible?.........A Lost Mary costs about £5.99 it provides about 600 puffs or 99p per 100 puffs.

A pod system with 100ml Lost Mary nic salts & enough pod replacements (6) (can be bought anywhere) costs £50 & gives 30k puffs or 0.16p per 100 puffs. The Lost Mary disposable vaper spends £299 not £50 to get the same intake. Even if 100% disposable switch to pods with SUP the revenue is 80+% less anyway. Realistically they should expect 10% of disposable revenue will be retained by pod/salt sales. The loss of disposables is a significant loss of income everyone knows this, these lost mary vapers in shops won't be rushing to SUP to buy their POD as expected. 130p-150p