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Bangrak
Hope your projections are right !
We can spend months building a decent position in a very illiquid business, What I do know is that it's not possible for me to buy a certain quantity in one go but I can easily sell that quantity and get a price a little way below where we are. I have no warrants to sell and neither does anyone I've spoken to about this business. What we all agree on (including an oil geologist) is that this discovery looks pretty good. Whatever happens, there is no need to chase it upwards plenty of people waiting with the bag open. It can do what it wants and no one will be able to drive it up or down, i read all 3 new broker notes yesterday the target price now is 42p cash in 2024 $42m. My own numbers tell me 42p & $41m. Patience is not inaction.
Thanks scored.
Rob00012 ,
This stock will get traded if sp falls, think a lot of traders are waiting to see what happens to sp over next few weeks.
I doubt it go lower than 15p /Thats my low target im a buyer at 15/16
Thanks scored glad you didn't mind me replying.
Just out of interest have you a price in mind and are you going to wait until after 24th oct to buy.
Don't think I'll wait that long but interested in others plans.
Cheers.
46M of them (as of Aug 31t) will either be exercised or expire by Oct 22nd. BUT that doesn't mean the pressure on SP will end that date! Canacol holds 14M of those and we look forward to hear what their intention is! But meanwhile AXL is solidly buiding values. SP will raise in due time. This one is a keeper. Better look elsewhere for tradable stocks!
Thanks jono you said it as i was writing
Around 46m warrants left to be exercised until 24th Oct at 9p a pop.
Think scoredagainsteps and others are expecting sp to fall as warrant holders sell existing shares to make an easy profit and replace those shares with 9p warrants.
It could happen and maybe explains why the sp has fallen lately.
If it does fall it could be a great buying opportunity for everyone, existing as well as new holders.
Think the sp will recover whatever happens but many will be watching from the sidelines each with their own price while others might also be selling hoping to get back in lower.
Just business as usual.
I'll be buying at some point that's for sure.
When will this happen and how will know?
Wont buy to warrants stopped
Marshall emailed me to say we have almost finalized budget for 2024. Board approval required before we issue (production) guidance. Mid - November likely.
I'd like to have made it to the presentation last week but although in London wasn't able.
Be useful to see in presentation the timeline to monetise, investment and lifecycle of the drills so the cashflow generated is clearly defined.
To be clear, I think the cashflow will be significantly positive and the earnings relative to market cap as it gets to 7-10k bopd is hugely positive.
Arrow Exploration confirms Carrizales Norte as ‘material discovery’
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1026034/arrow-exploration-confirms-carrizales-norte-as-material-discovery-1026034.html
Plenty to decipher in there !. Significant reserves upgrade for a small company. Time ( as usual) will see it developed and monetised. AXL are at least 'getting on with it' which is more than many small Co's that do plenty of talking and no 'doing'.
Maiden Carrizales Norte Reserves
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/AXL/arrow-announces-maiden-carrizales-norte-reserves/16117729
Https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hedge-funds-hurt-oil-dip-140000919.html
Thought I'd posted earlier but must have dozed off on train and failed to do so.
While some might want to point to water, I prefer to look at the identification of 115ft payzone between the top and the Oil Water Contact. I like also management's assertion that if required they can use horizontal drilling to maximise reservoir extraction and their confidence in the new reserves figure.
What else do I like, I like that Venezuela used to produce lots of heavy oil but since their political masters lost the plot struggle to extract and sell the stuff which along with Russian Urals being sanctioned there is refining capacity of heavy crude and industrial demand for it too as the company is already showing with CN2.
Easy to pick language selectively to tell a story but without the full context it's a bit like that old quote about statistics and lies/damned lies.
Warrants or not it seems there is a good raod ahead for AXL if they continue to perform as they have.
Read the Rns , it’s a faulty cement bond
Oh no more water?! :O
What do you propose we do Shellguy? Sell up and run?
CN-2 was to the south of both CN-1 (where C7 flowed very well) and CN-3 (CN-3 the farthest north so far).
Is it this C7 formation you are talking about? From the CN-2 well test:
"The CN-2 well also tested the C7 formation where early water production resulted in the Company making the decision to move immediately to the Ubaque formation where more economic results were encountered. "
Looks like more water is incoming in the next test results middle of September.
Overall good result. Poor cement job enabling water to enter the oil production zones. Ubaque is proven as a producing zone. Cn7 does its own thing and makes us $$.
You know nothing in this game until its been tested on an EWT. Lets talk about those zones when those results land. Today we talk about all the water they found in the other zones.
As HighlyGeared on a competitor points out....
“Once CN-3 is on production the rig will move to the RCE field where Arrow plans to further exploit the multi-zone RCE structure …..”
Funny you never mentioned the untested zones that we know flow very well 🤡🤡