Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
I can understand your disapointment. I personaly hold a solid position in Arrow with à long term expectation of getting dividends. It allows me to sleep well at night and not to worry about where the sp sits at end of every day. Don't get me wrong, I watch the sp way too often every single day but...at the end of the day, it doesn't matter. We're full of cash, printing more every day, we have no debt, we drill and increase production and reserves at an unbelievable rate of success and we have the best management team I've ever encountered and followed in my 46 years of market investor !!! Put my words down: there will come à time where you will tell yourself something like "I still don't get it but there was that time when people were selling way too much and now, it looks like everybody want to jump in at any price...crazy market !!!" And you will be smiling, proud of your smart investment. Sorry for the long text...had to spill it out! LOL!
Next 2weeks will be busy at Arrow. OP 3 will be producing...how much,this is the question. Arrow owns 100% interest out there...
Q3 financials will be released on Tuesday Nov 28th. Points Iwill be paying attention: cash position (10.8M at theend of Q2 from 13 at the end of Q1). Revenues and income (loss) fot the qtr (nice to develop and increase production but if that'd be to lose money (that's what almost killed Arrow not so long ago!)...show me the money!
Volumes are picking up nicely on both continents in light of yesterday announcement. Here is an exercpt from yesterday Auctus Advisors report update:
"We view the exercise of warrants and the resulting increase in interests in Arrow as a positive. The concern of investors having to sell shares to exercise their warrants had created an overhang on the share price that should dissipate with this announcement. "
And here is the CFO's update on the second rig that's been alluded to over the recent 2 months:
'The rig is being built up at Oso Pardo right now. It is still expected that both wells should be drilled and on production by the end of the year. Thanks Joe"
Next 2 months might be the time when Arrow gets recognized for its intrincic value, finally!
I'm always surprised to read how simple info gets lost...Anyhow, from AXL Financial statements:
Number of
warrants Exercise price Expiry date
56,606,859 £0.09 October 24, 2023
652,649 £0.09 November 22, 2023
And from September 1st NR
s at the end of August 2023, the Company still has 46,308,251 warrants outstanding to be exercised
until October and November of this year.
Sorry if it's a repost but here is the most recent interview between Malcom and Marshall Abbott, our CEO:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&si=dZhBZYpU78Yl0ZTB&v=7l9Z8B8pEaI&feature=youtu.be
Indeed, not me saying so but a very credible CEO. Watch this youtube video interview with Malcom. and pay attention to what MA says (Malcom on the other end is terrible in my opinion!) MA says a few times that the vertical wells are forecasted at a 360 BOD production rate and the horizontals between 900 and 1500. Starting at 15:30, MA says that over the next 12 to 18 months, Arrow plans drilling 11 horizontals plus 5 veticals. So let's do some easy maths: 11 X 1,000 (as avg production rate from the verticals)= 11,000...PLUS 5 X 360 (for the new verticals) = 1800 PLUS curent 3000....that is around 16,000...substract a bit of decline or less productive wells than expected, and we can conclude that MA said that we should be well above the 10,000 BOED markby year-end next year!!! Am I miscalculating something? Have I misunderstood those 2 last minutes from the interview? Please correct me if misunderstanding.
46M of them (as of Aug 31t) will either be exercised or expire by Oct 22nd. BUT that doesn't mean the pressure on SP will end that date! Canacol holds 14M of those and we look forward to hear what their intention is! But meanwhile AXL is solidly buiding values. SP will raise in due time. This one is a keeper. Better look elsewhere for tradable stocks!
CN-2 flows at up to 1 mbbl/d. Focusing on developping the Ubaque at Carrizales Norte
• The Carrizales Norte-2 well (CN-2) encountered 60’ of net pay in the Ubaque formation.
• The well has been put on production in the Ubaque with initial flow rates of 1,012 barrels of fluid per day. The water cut stabilized at 3% and the oil gravity is 13.6 API.
• The CN-2 well is currently producing 680 bbl/d gross (340 bbl/d net) as the company has set the ESP at the minimum optimum rate to maximize recovery factor. The build-up analysis indicates the well can produce at 1,400 bbl/d gross at a consistent producible rate.
• The net pay encountered in the Ubaque at CN-2, the oil quality and the achieved flow rate are consistent with the Ubaque at CN-1. The water cut is however much lower at CN-2 than at CN-1 (3% vs ~28%); which is a positive.
• The C7 sands were also tested but there was an immediate water breakthrough (the water cut reached 50%) that would require large water handling facilities. It is not clear where the water came from as the perforation were 15’ higher than at CN-1. It could be associated with a cementing issue.
• Over 30’ of pay was encountered at the Gacheta. That formation was not tested as it would have a required different completion equipment.
• Pending further visibility on an estimate on the reserves and resources at Carrizales Norte (particularly in the Ubaque that is expected to be very material to Arrow) expected after the CN-3 well, we re-iterate our target price of £0.50 per share (~our ReNAV).
Production growth
Including production from the CN-2 well, overall corporate production should be ~3 mboe/d. The Carrizales Norte-3 well has been spud. The rig will then move back to the RCE field to drill two dedicated Gacheta wells and the RCS-2 well targeting the C7 formation. The focus for the Carrizales Norte initial development will be the Ubaque formation where the rig will return to drill additional wells once the RCS-2 well is completed. Before taking into consideration natural decline and the future Ubaque wells, the four new upcoming wells could add 1,600 bbl/d net to Arrow, assuming 400 bbl/d per well (net to Arrow).
Valuation and cashflow
Our ReNAV is unchanged £0.53 per share. Assuming US$75/bbl for Brent until YE24, we continue to forecast that the company will hold >US$15 mm in net cash at YE23 and >US$50 mm at YE24.
Still hard to get a real hard number of outstanding wts. The last one we got was 50m (initally 70m from the Oct21 financing) and wuth the last PR, I'd estimate 48.4M still left to be exercised. This necessarily acts as a temper on any run up. But recent past has shown that with increasing BOED and reserves., new investors are byting in and maintainig pressure on the rise (as a trend I mean). This is a solid Co with amazing management team. SP will take care of itself and the wts. Like you mention, a blip is a blip. Opportunity to jump in! Just my 2 cents (or should I use 2 pences? LOL!)
Cheap and fast, you're right! And how often have we heard and/or read Marshall saying "under budget"? Kudo to this "superb" (!) board!!!! and execution team in the field! Wow! Cdn market closed strong again today, in anticipation of next news to come, June being just around the corner and so ,uch to come!. No brainer. I'm in until divys!
All warrants, like all of them (Oct24th and Nov22nd) are exercisable at 9 pences. This will maintain a high pressure on our SP until October. I watch the short reports and short sellers are absolutely not interested in our story (too much pressure on the upside!)
I feel and understand the frustration. However, the warrants are definitively the culprits. Think about it...bought shres at 6p in Oct 2021...3 fold retrun at current SP. PLUS half a wt to buy more shares at 9p...another 2 fold. What would you do? Can't bleme neither the Co for their Oct 2021 financings and can't vleme the warrant holders. We're stuck until end of Sept, mid Oct, when the wts expire (Oct 24th). There were 50M unexercised wts at the end Feb. I like to see the high volumes like today...wts being played I presume. On top of that, all the risks with Petro and his gov...