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Savage_KeyboardR:
'Some Macro's are going to coincide next week which I see pulling down a number of LSE stocks... UK House price, construction and Internet retail results, is going to make contact with a Tory party digging in and BoE holding rates... I think it's going to cause mayhem as holders begin to really understand the true depths of the UK's woes. Shorters are going to be out in force making a stack of money on driving some vulnerable equities into the ground. All imo DYOR.'
No Chance. My feeling is 1.30p by the end of May.
@bigtimebilly
https://www.fool.co.uk/2024/05/03/heres-where-i-see-the-bt-share-price-ending-2024/
That's right AimMaster... Next week is going to be turbulent with shorters out in force imo. With UBS and others pushing their downgrade of BT it won't be immune from pressure but... I see value in buying more BT on dips for mid-long term hold... I believe it's going to not only going to prove resilient but will even grow with the insatiable demand for high speed data & services, FTTP & 5G.
So we're expecting share price to be well below £1 next week. Imho may take few trading updates before we can confirm the cost is controlled. Could see 70 to 80p in short to medium term imho
Trading update will be positive, no way this is going 80 pence!
With excess staff, increase in cost to account for infrastructure spend. Trading update to come for me is worse is yet to come imho.
"...increase in cost to account for infrastructure spend. "
Well... i guess receiving £275m for BT Tower will go towards any of that
You have your opinion, but are wrong!
No opinions is wrong until it plays out before you can confirm it's right or wrong. If you were right by buying in, you wouldn't have been sat at a loss which means at present, you would be wrong with your chosen buy price since your at a loss. My opinion is that, this has further to drop. Savage highlighted upcoming macro factors is going to push the price down further. Short rising gradually is betting further downside plus cost increase and large labour force yet to be baked into the accounts likely to affect profitability. Short to medium term I see 80pish imho which I'm waiting for
It's a pointless exercise guessing the short term direction of a stock, which is why I don't play the guessing game on the Vodafone page. Disregarding the class action, I think it's safe to assume that BT is reasonably close to the bottom and is unlikely to see significant large long term price drops below £1, so in my opinion the current price is probably a reasonably safe area to consider investing; That said, I'd wait until the result of the class action lawsuit is in before considering buying more BT stock, since should BT lose then the price would likely take a hit and dip into the 90p to 100p range for a time. I'd suggest the shorters are currently betting on the class action result, should BT win I'd expect the short positions to be closed in short order and see BT's share price spike upward.
Fleecy
“It's a pointless exercise guessing the short term direction of a stock,”
But anyone who guessed Vodafone & BT were going to remain in the doldrums long term and become textbook bears in a bull market would have been correct. I think I’m right in saying both stocks are lower now with the ftse at 8200 than when the index fell below 5000 when covid hit home.
Telecoms have been an appalling investment over the past few years. Even a tracker would have outperformed them by about 30 percent, and that requires no active participation. The worse thing about backing losers is you not only lose money from your losses, you also lose money from backing the stocks which have risen.
Which is just about everything apart from telecoms.
It all depends on your strategy. BT is currently yielding over 7% and if the price stays this low for a sustained period of time, the compounding effect from reinvesting that 7% plus yield can be likened to a form of growth.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRYwu6rv7Vk2093vnE9975iJIfiNBDGYW08VmYU2MK2tsi0o9bA3rDwV9NV0XA6QJrkQeqet_jppwWg/pubchart?oid=257670331&format=interactive
Lets say BT stayed around the current price for 10 years with an initial investment of £100,000, you then reinvest your 7% yield back into BT every year, after 11 years of reinvestment you'll have more than doubled your initial investment and should BT's share price increase after year 11 you could benefit from that too.
The silver lining is that should BT's price drop further, and as long as the dividends are maintained, the yield will increase and your yearly reinvestment will buy even more stock.
Compounding is a well understood concept, but the decade long unprecedented low interest rate environment, and unbelievable outperformance of US stocks, appears to have hypnotised many into only considering growth type stocks. Should you be lucky enough to pick a stock that climbs stratospherically, like Rolls Royce has recently, then I'd suggest you've done well and your stock pick has worked in your favour; I'd rather pick reasonably safe stocks with good dividend yields and realise growth through reinvestment and compounding.
The caveat to the above is that dividends aren't guaranteed, but the outperformance of "Growth" over "Value" stocks isn't guaranteed either.
That's why he is the Motley Fool. He had the same opinion on Rolls Royce Shares and look how they have gone from strength to strength.
For transparency; I'm a holder of small qty of BT stock, purchased this year...
IMO We will see sub £1 this week... Shockingly bad house price data will kick off a VERY bad week for UK stocks. Plus Tory party digging in through backdrop of dreadful UK macros is going to amplify the carnage. BoE is stuck; raise, to tame inflation, and weak economy will implode like a squeezed rice crispie... hold is only sensible option but... gives no support to business & consumer demand and no relief to the indebted, cut and comparitive dollar strength will see inflation return to UK economy with a punishing vengeance. Longer term BT is a top value stock, once Labour take the reins credibility will return, BT will be a keystone for unlocking economic growth. We're a long way off from that though and the turbulence from now the then is going to be epic.
"Yes pokerchips, seems my 165p prediction was incorrect/premature"
"I think we'll be seeing 114p+ shortly."
" IMO We will see sub £1 this week."
Savage
Well , whatever crystal ball you are using ...I think you need to get a refund... it keeps sending you very different messages
Pokerchips, are those all. savages prediction? Lol.
" I'd suggest the shorters are currently betting on the class action result "
Fleccy
I suspect some are merely betting around the FEAR regarding the result, rather than the result itself...
Closer to the time they may change position to more match what they really think...
So far BT has not put aside any provision, as far as I remember, which gives some indication of their strength of position
Also, BT has not sort any kind of out of court settlement deal , with the notion that they accepted they knowingly did anything wrong,
I think that from BT legal team, they have gone into it feeling they have a good case to argue
Savage.....bought this year?
Come on, you can admit you bought well before, and well before current levels. The posting history doesn't lie.
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15 Dec 2023 - 125p
Get your buys in while you still can for sub £1.30p as SP will not be staying down at these low prices for that much longer!
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8 Nov 2023 - 121p
Since it's fallen down to the current levels I've restarted my process of buying again but... this time I plan on buying many more tranches and holding them for far longer.
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19 October 2023 - 116p
I think you're absolutely correct on long term hold however, this is about to move sharply upwards imo for several reasons... Incoming revenues are inevitably swelling and making it easy to service debts. BT is seen as a safe equity, a healthy and stable divi return, plus it's deeply embedded culturally as well as its infrastructure. These past years big investors have chased bigger returns in start ups/crypto etc... I think a trend of buying up safe and stable assets is about to begin, as large funds seek to re-evaluate exposure and shield themselves from risks.
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;-)
I purchased last year yep, sold the whole stake for profit... waited... bought back in again this year 👍 - only a small stake though and I plan on buying more on these upcoming dips.
Seems strange that you would post this the day after Boxing Day, if You had already sold all of your holding.....
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27th Dec
"Correct, you have to be holding the shares at close of business today to be eligible for the interim dividend payment 🎅 - lots of reasons for positive moves on BT SP these coming months ahead!"
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20th Dec
"SOM - You'll want to top up before SP rises up to £1.60-65p ;-) - the bull run is on the way!"
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I'm puzzled, is it really that hard to admit it.
Please, do save me the time and point me in the direction of where you posted that you had sold and taken a profit. I can't seem to find it. ;-)
@IDoMyBest Savage claimed on a different board that he's never made a loss. This guy sounds like he lives in a cuckoo land imho
Savage :
AimMaster2018 - Good Q... I actually haven't yet made a loss (trading since Dec 2022) but... I absolutely do expect to book losses and I'm not taking anything for granted. My wife has booked a loss on Synthomer though, quite a sizeable one but not outweighing her other profit making stocks which saw her through.
How can someone who says BT shares won't be sub 1.30 for long and will bounce to 160-65 but share price has been on downtrend. If sub 1.30 was good enough purchase price for him. If he had sold. It would have been at a loss because he would have held for his 1.60 which never happened. So how can he claim he sold at a profit lol. Imho
I'll check the exact dates on Tues AM on HL account... what with enjoying the BH weekend I had not appreciated it'd attract such forensic analysis. My overall point remains and whilst I was off with timing of my £1.60-65 sp forecast for BT I nonetheless believe it'll prove very resilient through these turbulent times ahead.
It seems talking the talk is easy lol. If one makes few trades and makes profit. You'll know exactly when u bought, sold and what profit was made from memory. For someone to believe it will hit 1.60 from when the price was just under 1.30. At no point would u have sold when the belief was there that it would hit 1.60. To say you've sold means u were ramping and didn't believe in what was ur target sell price that u were telling everyone it would reach. SP today is at 1.05. U failed on what u believed was 1.60 target price in short order. U failed to highlight and verify claim you sold when ur time history states otherwise. Then to go from sp target from 1.60 to now below £1 Indicates your claims of not making a loss since 20