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MCAP of £412m is crazy for a share that had £1,183m of shareholder equity on the books at H1 ...and one wonders why Cosmen have been buying
" BT has pleaded guilty to 7 offences relating to unsafe implementation of traffic management measures in a prosecution. "
A maverick sub-contractor that unsurprisingly got dropped... real cowboys by the looks of things
https://www.shropshirestar.com/news/business/2024/03/18/bt-ordered-to-pay-19000-for-shrewsbury-roadworks-safety-offences-by-maverick-crew/
GenghisInvestor
dont understand your comment ....
Cosmen´s buying cheap shares gives them more Voting Rights and more influence , and they would be thinking beyond the shorter term that some Private Investors might be ...
If and when US Bus gets sold then a number of new opportunities within the Pipeline will come from the ALSA area blueprint strategy ..IMO
yes..i would think Cosmen´s would have pressured for a dividend after COVID
"I see Cosmen´s buying Voting Rights and a view to better returns by 2025....
your horizon might be counted in days, weeks or months ...theirs in years !
Lower dividends from next year
"next year"...... starts with the H1 dividend for H1 ending 30th September 2024 (this year)
they say "next year" meaning their new Financial Year FY25 which begins in April 2024
"The Mexico central bank is under huge pressure to cut rates on 26th March"
They meet on March 21st with one after that not scheduled until May 9th...so a first cut in March could be on the cards
JG68
For US Bus, I suspect the " prepare for sale" stage is complete and they can then formally ask serious prospective interests to review the prepared prospectus/accounts and in time,put in offers ....I would have thought there would be a few interested parties..
You need a legal prospectus/accounts to know what exactly is up for sale
It could end up with sealed bids ...remains to be seen
That to me would be the next stage and as it is a stand alone issue, it could be updated separately..although I suspect it will all be together... have to wait and see
"...but there is a risk it will fail. "
It is all about reducing the probability of failure , and it is evedent many steps have be taken and decisions made, over many months to reduce that probability
Lower probability of failure is obviously teh, a higher probability of success
Avion clearly greatly involved in those decisions and steps, which although is a long process , means it more likely to be worth it....in the end
"It's also been a considerable time since we have had any hard news on BioAMB's progress towards commercialisation."
At this stage I suspect there is just relationship building with potential interested parties monitoring the progress with commercial decisions coming once it has achieved a certain level of progress in its development stages ....the update in the March RNS was promising and positive
"I think they have to publish by the end of March to comply with rules don't they..."
No.. by the end of June
" They have been trying to do a deal on row rights for years,"
Flash
They have been WORKING on deal RELATIONSHIPS ....and the deals are a PROCESS that takes time and are normally dependent on other events reaching a certain achievement
so..the "deal" relationships have been steadily growing as progress is made ...
so
Istabrraq
what your thoughts on the BOD are , are your business
...I am merely giving some comment on the decisions to pay or not pay dividends and the influence of stakeholders in that, suggesting stakeholders were involved IMO... it wasn't mere BOD incompetence IMO
The BOD have walked into a highly indebted business in a period of increasing debt payments and more expensive bond restructuring and any BOD unfortunately cannot just change that in a short period of time , and being a labour intensive business operating in labour challenged markets doesn't make it easier either within the US and UK
ATB
JG68
Yes a long time without an update , too true , but best wait and see what materialises ....a lot to update on ...the finance costs having a big affect I think on earnings and also having no dividend .... better options elsewhere
A huge pipeline to work on providing new growth opportunities using existing blueprint models using low CAPEX and higher margins
US Bus will have improved a lot since H1 and the margins will be on the way to recovery by now , and a lot of the price and support help for UK Bus came into affect in H2 so improvements there too .....
I think there may be too much doom and gloom based on the long wait for an Update
They couldn't just deal with US contract pricing or US national labour shortages from one day to the next, just doesn't work like that .
The higher costs than budgeted for training US Bus drivers could have been simply because they recruited far more drivers than they expected in the time frame , as now the routes are ..what ...almost 100% back to strength
I think the landscape has changed so much that it is inevitable that plans change ..... ie sell US Bus ....
but I personally don't think they could have sold it right after COVID or whilst it had the driver /inflation / contract pricing issues to resolve ...those things you have to get straight yourself before putting up for sale ....
..now is the time having sorted all those things out
I think by the next H1 Results and more so on FY Results things will look better and the way ahead clearer,
Still a big cloud hanging on 2023 until the Results update and clear that out of the way, for good ..but once out of the way the focus can be completely on what is NOW ....2024
ATB
" @Pokerchips It is the BOD responsibility to act & make decisions in the best interests of the business. "
"the business" ...has a lot of influence from the key stakeholders whether you want to believe it or not and it is somewhat strange to think otherwise
Istabrraq
Dividend pressure comes from stakeholders yes ..... so the idea that it is the BOD who decides on it , is misplaced I think ...
I suspect Cosmen demanded a dividend after COVID and the lenders then stopped it after that
I would lean against the idea it was incompetence by the BOD
Tornadotony
they dont sell all their gold and silver at spot prices .... a good amount is hedged ....so..not so easy to predict the precise gain in 2024 just from spot prices
...but..they might look at hedging gold higher given the strong start to the year
"I suspect the company is a lot closer to being profitable at a pre-tax level than many commentators believe."
well Pearls ...they need a decent Operational Profit as a first call , before you can even think of a profit near the bottom line and that is still somewhat elusive . They need that EBITDA margin much higher than it is
"...after reinstating then removing the dividend within a short timeframe. "
You maybe need to think WHO exactly was behind reinstating the dividend in the first place and WHO exactly put the pressure on to remove it
....and I am not referring to the BOD
" Pushed the price down-loaded up"
well you loaded up too wildbunch and were very pleased to have had the opportunity...so maybe they were not so bad then
" All in All the one word to describe Reliance and India is "Massive"
yes...but Disney and Paramount Global have sold their interests to Reliance as it is so tough for foreign companies to break through there ...look at Vodafone ..... it is massive, but tough..... Reliance would decide what's what ...not ASOS ..and Reliance are so powerful that they can make you or break you, it is in their hands, not yours