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The market doesn't care about MCAP

Market has far more (worrying) things to be concerned about and price shares on ....

" pathetic margins & ROCE etc etc"

I will play the devil´s advocate and maybe pretend to be the BOD fighting back on criticisms to keep some hope and sense of fighting through the issues

The interesting thing is that the new contracts

Alsa - margins of 12% av. ROCE 23%

Shuttle - margins of 10% av. ROCE 31%

I think that the BOD and the new UK/German and US Bus Leaders are fighting back on a number of issues

US Bus Driver shortages down to 2% ...990 new drivers and training in 2023 is not bad effort

US Bus driver shortage down to 6% , only 17% of applications get offered a position and of those 15% dont take the position offered , despite the pay increase !!

Imagine what it would be without the pay increase !!

Germany 70 new train drivers trained compared to 22 in 2022

1000 new drivers needed within their operating region !!!

The revenue in Transit up 10% but the loss of support funding of $44m knocked the profit down , and tech like Google etc cut down on volume cost $25m as job losses increased ...14 new contracts to offset that with $54m ..fighting back !!

Josey

a full takeover is a pretty big undertaking at a time when the business needs absolute full attention of the BOD and indeed Cosmen as Deputy Chairman and indeed a new interim CFO to ensure stability

If Cosmen is indeed going along with the US Bus sale to get cash to invest in ALSA model then I am not sure he would look at a takeover at the moment ???.... plus all the problems going on in the world, inflation, FED, US Election,geo-politics etc ...

Wealth

in US Bus ...for the driver shortage to get down to 2% by end of Dec 2023, recruiting 990 drivers ... they ended up spending more than budgeted on driver recruitment and training , with the 2% possibly ending up better than they had expected ... so I suspect the costs ate into the margin and profit ..$10M driver costs in 2023

They did say that in Q4 there was a $8m increases, net of wage increases and driver training ... and that Q4 was more of a picture than the obvious issues in H1

for Q1 yes I was expecting better revenue ... sounds like the school break was in Q1 this year rather than Q2 last year (the earlier than usual spring break)

If you put " snow storms USA 2024" into google ..there are quite a few references ...and I have not delved deeper into the storm articles ......but on face value I would say there is "some" truth into the snow issue but I cant say to what extent

Wealth

I did say ..today´s drop "made worse" by USA and merely suggesting that , that news causing the shorters to add on their inflation hedge , which came out today

I wasnt actually meaning to dip into the situation related to the BOD ...sorry for confusion

The FED is in a trap now ....falling GDP and still high inflation

They are going to have to buy any new debt with bids over a set Yield...so they can keep a hold of the yield ... especially if the likes of China plays a game and dumps 10y Treasuries to push the yield up, forcing the FED hand in the longer end

If the 10Y goes to 4.8 say then shares will suffer

This has nothing to do with the BOD

Today´s drop made worse by the US GDP and PCE figure .... good for shorters .... BOD cant predict the US economy figure coming in worse than even the LOWEST estimate ...

Shorters were betting on inflation getting worse ...the BOD EBIT estimates somewhat dependent on that being better over the year

Fleccy

yes, but of course,shorters know in advance what they will have to pay on ex-div day....they no doubt have the cash from selling the borrowed shorts earlier on... and depending on general market sentiment will obviously want to make sure they can knock the price further after ex-div ..... as you say a basic ex-div deduction of the SP makes the div payment equal to the extra gain on the short "profit"

Stupmy

I say it as a number of more experienced posters have made that point on different occasions ..

On the face of it I would be surprised if the new CEO would cut the DIV at this stage, given they expect to maintain year end guidance of FCF at the upper end of £1.2 billion and her presenting more or less the previous CEO result

What I suspect may be her throw out could be what her expectation of div cover to be...as well as any view on capital allocation for the new financial year

..and...whether..they decide to make any provision for the court case outcome

If there is a fine at some point there may well be room for an Appeal, plus..depending what the fine might or might not be...to pay ..over a period of time

"I've spotted the occasional 0.47, .48, .49 "

I usually see those after coming down from above 0.5%, but then you wont know of any further reductions from that..

Many people have said that it is the NET short position that is notified

So..if an investment bank is 0.9 short but 0.6 long....then the net short of 0.3 isnt notified in that case

Which is why you dont see many Investment bank notifications

Amongst other things, like improving the performance of the Business division....the market wants to see the new CEO deliver her stategy and captial allocation plans ..and have any court case liability risk removed

"The provision isn't just a write off; it will have significant cash outflows associated"

A provision isnt a write off.

A provision is a liability for a future known cost

Once that cost is paid ( cash outflow) the corresponding provision amount is removed , as it is no longer a liability

Barneysmb

I think 202 and 2023 and generally been shown to have been somewhat difficult to "forecast" many,many things ..across Central Banks, Government Agencies, Company Analysts, National Statistic Offices, Economists, etc,etc ...and I have seen a number of Guidances change ..mostly for the worse in 2023 as a result of inflation predictions, earnings etc turning out to be somewhat optimistic....

...so..I tend to give more leeway towards forecasts that get amended in times of data volatility ..although shareholders do like these things to be accurate of course .... in reality I dont actually think it is that easy......

The more data we have the less likely the "forecasts" are going to be right !!!

I read the Results Report through from beginning to end ..and ..boy..there is a lot of complexity to each of the Divisions here and quite a few things outside of the main company control, which then has to be adjusted and reacted to.. just dealing with the WMCA and up through to the DofT in negotiating grants and subsidies ....it like getting blood from a stone ...thank goodness Jan 2025 sees a new negotiating table...enough is enough.... unprofitable routes will go, unless cash is forthcoming

In terms of responsibilities..I was referring more to the work that has to be done and be accountable for

...I dont think it is that easy at all

Regards

Stamp "mellowing into the day to day at NEX"

Stamp "Just pulling a huge salary & doing little"

Guys

I suspect you dont fully get the full responsibilities of a CFO and the workload it entails...the figures shown on Results Day are just the tip of the iceberg in terms of the spreadsheets and work related to financial data management within the business and ensuring everything is audit compliant etc... many new data systems have to be set up with each new contract win and integrated into the main systems of financial control ..they dont appear by magic , and the CFO has a lot of overall responsibility for that ...plus re-finance the bonds and meet lenders, etc etc

I suspect Stamp is in constant contact with each Team of US,Germany, Spain, Tendering etc.... finger in every pie ..

His presentations are very clear and he makes it look easy , but there is a lot to manage and have legal corporate responsibility for .

"so how will they make moola LONG-TERM? "

Well they are obviously looking at taking some UK market share and looking for volume in passenger numbers..... push the brand recognition .... with a strong focus on cost control throughout the business

They have been going 3 years or so and in many parts of Europe ...set-up from Munich

RealityBytes

Bondholders look to be in the stronger position at this stage ..

The bonds have sold down nicely with some shorter help no doubt..... I suspect few initial buyers will still be holding at that Issue price.... I suspect some Hedge Fund scavengers have worked to buy some at low prices and take a very good yield coupon

The Bondholders may well know the bond wont be paid back when due and it is in the company best interest to have a D4E default , ..so the bondholders are quite possibly now pushing for the best Equity Discount they can get, ...maybe with intentions to sell some at a profit if a relief rally happened after the solution is complete ..all remains to be seen

Key shareholders will of course want to bargain for a softer Equity Discount ..so..the two sides discuss whilst Aiden chairs their views...I suspect...meeting somewhere in the middle or tilted to the bondholders advantage to get the settlement agreement

The BOD just running the day to day business

IMO

Scavenger

Maybe compare prices with some competition ..

https://www.flixbus.co.uk/

https://www.theguardian.com/travel/2024/apr/16/coach-service-offers-journeys-across-the-uk-for-knockdown-price-of-2-each-way

"I can see why the market did hit us with a bit of a further cut."

well a £245.5m loss on shareholder Equity is a good a reason as any

Book Equity down to £1,066m

JG68

yes, and with dealing with frustrations ..I tend to find that if you face reality and timescales and fully understand things it helps a lot....

If we look at the Pricing/Volume increases for 2024 and add the estimated £50m savings ..then that is one hell of a fight to match the £100m inflation/costs ...so I have no doubt there is a lot being done ..just a kick in the teeth to get the German provision so high

A real test of patience through to 2025 I am afraid