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Lunchbox...
As I mentioned yesterday, the chart looked like it was very measured and controlled buying.
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A few thoughts on this weeks rise, looking at the chart over three days it is a rather contrived slow rise, you might say very deliberate.......
Thoughts that this was someone slowly stake building or shorts slowly covering.
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OK, so the headline is Div not just held, but up!!!
But some of the numbers are not so good, debt, profit.
We all know what the headlines will be....... and it won't be the increased dividend.
But, I'm banking on the Div increase causing a rise on the open, and I intend to sell what is left of my holding if it does. I'd expect it may drop back later.
BWTFDIK..... ;-)
Well that would be lovely.....
A few thoughts on this weeks rise, looking at the chart over three days it is a rather contrived slow rise, you might say very deliberate.......
Thoughts that this was someone slowly stake building or shorts slowly covering.
Whatever it was I'm not complaining.
As for tomorrow, I'd go for 118-120p, more would be perfect.
Looks like RMG are going to accept a bid.
Good luck to all, up 20% at the moment, jealous much.....
The spending power of the compensation has degraded significantly since the 'overcharging took place. The last accounting date for that appears to be Jan 2021.
Since Jan 2021 to March 2024 we have experienced circa 19.25% inflation. I assume that this will be added to the claim.
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/inflation/inflation-calculator
That said, they could just add interest rates available since the time the overcharging took place.
since that date Jan 2021 rates have gone up significantly, Assuming they base it on LIBOR (as a minimum)
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/interbank-rate#:~:text=Interbank%20Rate%20in%20the%20United%20Kingdom%20averaged%204.87%20percent%20from,percent%20in%20December%20of%202020.
Which has also risen, but no where near as much as inflation.
May be useful to you.....
Whilst they update shorts here, I have no idea how quickly they do it, the source is 'likely' to be the spreadsheet linked on this page, direct from the horses mouth, as they say.
https://www.fca.org.uk/markets/short-selling/notification-disclosure-net-short-positions
the link is just down the page.......
See the public short positions disclosed to us – daily update (XLSX).
Something I missed......
"Aggregate damages have been given a preliminary estimate of £589 million (on the basis of 8% simple
interest, comprised of £238 million for BT Voice Only Customers and £351 million for BT Split Purchase
Customers)."
Clearly the figures have since increased (inflation), but it is clear that the larger amount of compensation is being claimed for those split purchase customers.
Which is very good news...... ;-)
"It is estimated that the size of the Proposed Class across the Claim Period is around 2.31 million individuals,
with the BT Voice Only sub-class estimated at around 1.23 million and the BT Split Purchase sub-class
estimated at around 1.08 million."
OK, So I understand that they have better prospects of a win on the split purchase part, given OFCOM somewhat let them off on that issue.
"Split purchase service is probably the largest part of the litigation claim, at least half or more. "
Well it appears to be the smaller part, but admittedly not by much.
Regardless, it is close to half of the claim.
Thanks...... ;-)
"Split purchase service is probably the largest part of the litigation claim, at least half or more. "
If so that would likely temper my view somewhat.
Source, please?
Look, I'm happy to be put right on this matter, as I still hold over 80,000 shares in BT (have already sold half into the rise), and think it a decent investment at the current price. It is simply that It could be an even better one after they deal with the case.
Well, as stated I bought back in, a few @ -2.5%, a few @ -3.5% and my last buy @-4.2%
Currently holding a few less than I held (before selling) yesterday.
Will see how the day goes, but looking unlikely that it will crater.... ;-)
...and they did just beat the estimates.
Read it for yourself.....
https://www.ofcom.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0015/107322/standalone-landline-statement.pdf
No, I decided to spend a quiet Saturday morning trying to find out more about the case.
Simply put, BT said one thing in the Annual R&A, and OFCOM said something else.
IMHO, BT was less than candid.
The R&A comment of note.....
"Ofcom’s final statement made no finding of excessive pricing or breach of competition law more generally. The claim seeks to hold against us the fact that we implemented a voluntary commitment to reduce prices for customers that have a BT landline only and not to increase those prices beyond inflation (CPI)."
The OFCOM comment of note.....
"In our February consultation, we proposed regulated price reductions and a requirement for BT to
work with us to encourage their customers to consider what better deals were available.
We have now received an offer from BT that matches our proposed regulation for voice-only
consumers. Here we set out our consideration of BT’s offer."
Whilst they BT stated one thing, clearly OFCOM stated quite another.
You make your own mind up, but I can now see why that a panel thought BT did have something to answer for.
Hence my view has changed.
Flip flopped, please do show me where I flip flopped.
I changed my mind on Saturday, sold shares yesterday and mentioned it, sold more today. I have now sold half of my holding. Will likely sell the rest on Thursday.
May as well take a chance on the figures. Unlikely that case will be decided in the next few days.
Will certainly buy back after case is decided.
FYI, I bought in about two weeks ago, this weekend I found out something that has changed my mind,. So I have sold half of my holding into the recent rise.
Still holding a few in case figures lift the price further, will likely then sell the rest.
In short I do not want to be holding if they lose that case, and I think they will. The potential liability being in excess of 1 billion.
If you want to know the details of what I found just look at my posts over the weekend, when I went from being positive about case to negative.
The yield on BT is very high (due to the meteroric fall in share price), it is currently not far short of the highest div in the FT100. The FT100 is circa 3.5%, BT is more than double that.
Given its huge and growing debt pile, they are 'effectively' funding the dividend with debt. It would therefore seem to make sense to reduce it to typical FTSE yields of 3.5%.
VOD cut its yield today and plans to cut it further next year, didn't seem to hurt the share price.
The brief opinion piece from Bloomberg.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-14/burberry-brby-sales-expected-to-decline-as-brand-revival-falters