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Think it is end of next month for warrants but the base price seems to vbe solid around 19/20p for now.
The progress should be good from here.
Will rainy season put activities at a pause in terms of drilling/proving up.
Some good things to come here.
I'm presuming that today is the last day for using the warrants from the original listing date?
It's now 2 years on the 25/10/2023 from the IPO 25/10/2021 where original investors have 1 warrant per 2 share bought and exercisable for 9p per warrant.
So a very nice double your money and a bit for the people still holding the warrants and an unfortunate missed opportunity for the one's not exercising by the deadline.
I would expect the SP to be flat for a few days as some of the investors cash in their entitlements, but so far a few 25K to 100K sales are being hoovered up pretty quickly, so not so bad really.
We have been hoping to get to the end of this for months now, and hoping the SP would then get back to a more appropriate level, maybe into the 30p+ ranges.
Any thoughts out there?
GLA DYOR etc
Cheers HDT
Rainy season over and management keen on increasing operational tempo.
2 rigs from next month.
3 rigs on the go next year!
MA inspires confidence in AXL and the path they are taking. Underlines the tremendous value of great leadership.
AIMHO GLA
Thank you for well written and informative article!
Marshall Abbott explained a little about the water and the cementing last week in a chat with me: https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/americas/exploration-production-americas/534355/arrow-sets-out-plans-to-triple-colombian-production/
Fantastic news. Hope to see strong, positive movement in sp in coming days
3 vertical wells at RCE and 2 vertical wells at Oso Pardo Seahawk.
They should hopefully end the year between 4k and 4.5k bopd
This company is certainly not hanging around, I love the speed that they are drilling these wells and each one being put straight to production. Need these warrants to disappear and then we will be off flying. 3 horizontal wells to be drilled before the end of the year which will significantly add to the numbers being produced on a daily basis. With oil heading above $100 a barrel this share is going to fly.
Ref post 7thSept. Shellguy. The C7 to which I referred is the one now producing 300+ bbls a day unassisted. The same one that the company said they were putting into production.
Well said Barraband. Once these warrants are sorted out I can see the 50p being broken.
Onwards and upwards. Lots of info and I forgive the typo in the 2nd to last sentence as should say ‘year end’. Have a lovely day all.
Don’t you just love this company.
Another excellent RNS and Malcy’s forecast of 50p SP looks undercooked. Fantastic management team and great resources.
Good vid Troajan, very informative & a prompt to fill my c/heating oil tank.
The chart on Russia’s reduced income is worrying where the export of gas has reduced massively. They haven’t the facilities to liquify it so what are they doing with it? Flaring it? So much for global warming measures, huh?
Next few weeks be busy here
Ime just the postman banksman....pasting the news,here and there
a good sector to be in atm.....https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0rn44Tf60tk
I see you’re also on UJO BB Troajan. UJO CEO could pick up a few tips from Marshall Abbot on how to conduct an interview
Looking very look indeed. Thank you Flavourshaker for detailing the facts and projections.
Flavourshaker, An excellent summary; the future is looking very good indeed.
I believe we have hit the bottom (17p)! Too many great catalysts in line...new investors coming in for the longer run...nice.
With the recent company developments I just wanted to summarise the short, medium and longer term catalysts for the company.
Short term (up to EOY 2023)
- CN3 results. MA confident in the Malcy interview the well will flow from the C7 nicely.
- 3x wells at Rio Cravo. These are quick to drill and bring online (took 3-4 weeks for RCE-3 to 5) and will bring in 320+ bopd per well.
- 2x Oso Pardo wells with a separate rig. Again 320 bopd per well.
Med term (12 to 18 months)
-Up to 11 horizontal wells at Carrizales Norte to exploit the Ubaque reservoir.
These are expected to produce approx 900bopd per well (3x a vertical well) and cost 50% more to drill.
- 2 to 3 Exploration drills at Mateguafa and Baquiano
Dividend upon hitting 10k bopd. This has been discussed in previous posts and could be a significant I.e. $30m out of $150m post tax FCF @$85+ brent and distributed accross 300m shares = 10p
Longer term management intend on developing the assets and see several years of runway with existing prospects.
- Oso pardo extension granted by the government dept which has the potential to become a 20 well, 4k bopd field.
- Fully develop the leads recently identified on the 3D.
- 3D on the south Tapir block
- M&A although on the back burner for the time being shouldn't be ruled out.
IMO In short it isn't difficult to see the company potentially end up being a 20k+ bopd producer with a $500m+ mcap within the next 5 years.
Sorry if it's a repost but here is the most recent interview between Malcom and Marshall Abbott, our CEO:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&si=dZhBZYpU78Yl0ZTB&v=7l9Z8B8pEaI&feature=youtu.be
Indeed, not me saying so but a very credible CEO. Watch this youtube video interview with Malcom. and pay attention to what MA says (Malcom on the other end is terrible in my opinion!) MA says a few times that the vertical wells are forecasted at a 360 BOD production rate and the horizontals between 900 and 1500. Starting at 15:30, MA says that over the next 12 to 18 months, Arrow plans drilling 11 horizontals plus 5 veticals. So let's do some easy maths: 11 X 1,000 (as avg production rate from the verticals)= 11,000...PLUS 5 X 360 (for the new verticals) = 1800 PLUS curent 3000....that is around 16,000...substract a bit of decline or less productive wells than expected, and we can conclude that MA said that we should be well above the 10,000 BOED markby year-end next year!!! Am I miscalculating something? Have I misunderstood those 2 last minutes from the interview? Please correct me if misunderstanding.