With the debt facility renegotiated, I wonder if Tullow is now 'in play'? Legacy can run the debt down and the potential at Kanukku and Orinduik can be picked up for literally 10c on the barrel as a cash outlay.
Noix The CPR should be linked via the RNS still which updated it post Joe and Jethro. It hadnt incorporated Carapa or the technical high grading exercise being done by the partners which may render some of the info redundant. I'm sure I still have a copy of the 4bn barrel CPR if not the 5bn one if you have specific questions on data points?
Note the noises around negative oil price continue, the current low cost has a flip side of making alternative energy sources relatively more expensive. Exxon have a great deal invested in the success of Guyana and to be able to lock in assets with little E&P uncertainty after drilling has occurred should be attractive. The current malaise will ultimately lift, maybe by the summer but more likely later in the year. The bigger companies will see the subtle changes in physical market and think about where they need to be positioned for the upturn, possibly before things become 'expensive'again. Should be some interesting deals done in the next year, imagine rig rates will remain rock bottom as the more highly speculative drilling remains on the back burner.
Noix Not really, I'm saying £2.00 a share would be incredibly cheap in the event of finding light sweet oil in the Cretaceous as it would place a value much less than exploration cost on the assets. Let's be honest, it is a slightly different world out there now than 6 months ago in ways none of us anticipated.
Many think that when one Shale firm goes bankrupt, somebody else will sail in and take over. However, the non-shadow banking world is taking a dim view of fossil burning industries and if they have already take a hit (most deals will be syndicates involving multiple banks) then they're credit appetite will be severely curtailed. So you are then in to more shadow banking/fringe funders (PE/HDDGIES) and they might want more clarity on a 3-5yr exit plan than the market currently offers. Hence, some shale production once it drops may not quickly ramp up and be acquired cheaply by a major for some future point to replenish reserves.
Wallact Sorry, wasnt aiming anything personally. The development of heavy oil is definitely a plus and the prospectivity of the licence is not in question for most here. The negativity of the journalism is frustrating when it will make such a difference for Guyana.
That is the laziest, stupidest journalism. Do they suggest Exxon do not state the tail risks from exploration. These are the unmitigated impacts of an extremely low probability event and make no.mention of the steps taken to mitigate.
Marcel Only 40% of the portfolio is hedged in 2021 at a lower price than the 2020 hedge. Consequently their P&L will struggle to produce the cashflow required to meet their various debt repayment commitments from 2022 onwards, particularly if further work is required in Ghana etc. Their best route to raising value from Orinduik/Kanukku is drilling early in their 2021 budget. Some have said they need to package this to get a debt facility, but undrilled Eco share of this is currently valued by market at about 2 cents per barrel, so even the 3bn barrels plus Tullow has would not yield significant debt funding without drilling being conducted.
Marvin 12-18 months, if Tullow doesnt drill in that time they are bust as it is the game changer that moves the value needle in their portfolio. Even in a bear market there is value in 2.4bn barrels (Tullows share) that can be on stream when record falls in investment leave production gaps into the upswing, when it eventually comes. Not making any predictions on that eventuality.
Looking at ADVFN and it is always disturbing/surprising how much people seem to enjoy what they perceive to be other peoples misery if facing a loss on investment price. People targeting Proselenses formpayong 25p when he/she has clearly stated it is a 12 month hold. Quite sad really.
EAS10 Think you're the one who's mental if suggesting the market correction does not provide buying opportunities. May.not pick the bottom (dont think it has arrives yet) but likely in 2021 at some point there will be a different view from markets. Eejit
Phoebus This is a time to look through the maelstrom to the other side and unless the world is going to stop using oil in the next 6 months, then 2021 will look very different to now. What it does (or will do) is present some great buying opportunities if folk pick the right stocks. Looking at Premier and Tullow, non majors without debt in the oil space are probably best!!! Good luck all.