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Not great to see the steady drop from 72p but it is quite unusual to see such a market reaction to BP taking an option to farm in to 3 major blocks.

News should be due on Guyana soon - at the very worst, Navitas and Eco have submitted an appraisal plan for Jerhro/Joe discovery as well as plans for rest of the block. We are carried on initial drilling and if Jethro is appraised FID can be taken on a field that would be 100m barrels plus to Eco (or £1.50+ a share)

Shortly we should have SA approval and a successful drill here should make 3B/4B licence worth £2+ to a buyer.

Then there should be a drill on PEL001 - this is all in next 12 months and funded.

So the idea it is worth <60p a share is in my humble opinion utter nonsense.

The 3 catalysts above in positive outcomes are imo worth >£5 a share.

What was it Navitas said about Falklands - this is the kind of exploration they love. Dare say Jethro falls into a similar category.

Volumes look pretty thin for a 5% drop.

Not expecting any bad news, you never know but should be plenty of good news to come and counter it.

Think the winds are changing and Starmer may even dissolve parliament than face a confidence vote/leadership challenge. As long as Ed Milliband doesn't get anywhere near an office of state in a revised government there wil likely be more pragmatism around the energy transition.

As I mentioned BP dont need to sell but may just be tired of the effort required to do anything in the UK these days.

Think BP is frustrated (along with everyone else) by UK govt policy towards the North Sea and thus threatening to sell up. They dont need to sell to invest though.

Morning Marvin,

Obviously just speculating but Eco has rights over Joe/Jethro and Hammerhead. Those are established and provide revenue backing for any entrant in that they can/are being developed.

So with the funds from even unitisatuon - a chunk of the drilling is actually paid for. Guyana I would think want a partner who can execute quickly and probably a partner that provides a counter balance to Exxon as they hold alot of sway locally it would help to diversify the influence.

BP and Shell seem to be pivoting more to E&P than they have previously and good blocks with seismic and potential revenue back up dont grow on trees. So to me, it is interesting and with Navitas we cant just ve bullied off the whole block due to the rights enshrined.

More importantly, think Eco and Guyana have had a good working relationship and that helps.

First drill is worth more is it goes a good way to validating the geological modelling and thus the wider field.

Yes but it is 5.25% of an initial 800m barrels to be drilled soon plus the wider licence of 4bn barrels and bankrolled to.production by Total.

It has value.

Wallact

Strikes me that Navitas could give up 40% of the block and be carried through 2 or 3 drills. Hopefully Eco has a mechanism allowing matched terms in event of a sale through/farm-in but they may allow Navitas to participate in 3B/4B to equalise the carry if needed. Lots of options but with the success of Stabroek and discovery at Jethro plus recent events it would seem a good option.

Interesting from Malcy, given his bucket list is annual he suggests 150p is achievable in 2026. This seems reasonable as catalysts unfold.

In late 2026/H1 2027 - there is likely to be

- Guyana drill x2 plus Jethro FID (subject to govt). If there is an exploration drill that is likely to lead to appraisal if successful. Fwiw - I think Navitas may look to farm down their 80% in Guyana and could see BP/Shell being interested.

- 3B/4B drill - potentially 2 drills and move to FEED if oil found. Believe Eco would sell the interest in this. This gives a great special dividend or pays for alot of activity elsewhere.

PEL001 - initial drill and a discovery puts us on track to FID with Aoka Mizu as a minimum.

Namibia - seismic analysis on 2 blocks and decision on options plus a potential early drill where seismic already exists if data supports.

CBK1 - Navitas farm down and likely buy in from an IOC/Major to move quickly on exploration.

So by end H1'27 we could have discoveries in PEL001 - 3B/4B - and 2x in Guyana at Tertiary and Cretaceous.

With the 3B/4B as a minimum I hope happening during 2026 (worth £2.50+ imo on its own).

PG hasn't produced many RNS's that have been well received in the last 3 years. However, he has stated MOU6 will happen end July and that the company is funded with or without a partner to secure the kit required (although did that include drilling costs).

So he has probably until middle of June to deliver a partner and one would think this would include the divestment parameters or the conditions of the divestment depending on drilling outcome.

So while the results are underwhelming in terms of narrative he has a timeline he is bound by.

Of course some will say he has as long as it takes which given his age that is a surprising view.

Depending what they decide is the work programme in Guyana and the timing, the rig currently in Shenandoah or somewhere near and whether a new contract for another drilling rig is required.

For noting, Aoka Mizu is an FPSO and does nothing drilling.

PL001 - Aoka is due on site in 2031. Thats plenty of time to appraise and do FEED/FID. Just because Aoka is due on site that does not mean other vessels cannot also find their way on site if discovered oil provides the potential production.

There are majors with deep pockets who would love to accelerate some of these timelines as they seek to replace reserves and probably consider how to move production from choke points.

Rather than times shifting to the right, as the likes of BP and Shell get their exploration hats back on I can see the possibility of timelines coming in.

New Chief Execs want red meat to feed the markets and positive drilling outcomes provide it.

Mick

Think that jogs memory to say Amaila is next exploration target. Can't recall if it is stacked with other prospects on the map

The Jethros yep are 700m+ in prospective resources but the GCOS is high and Jethro is already a discovery.

Mr Mil

Not sure on the P50 numbers. From memory, the Gustavvson CPR was around 6bn barrels recoverable across the Orinduik licence.

The accumulations around Jethro are considered fairly high probabilities and around 800m barrels plus.

Think the next exploration drill is then favoured as Aurituk/Iatuk I think which is several hundred million Cretaceous barrels.

Alone these two drills would net to Eco around 300m barrels plus and represent only a quarter of the licence potential. With the Jethro portion already being a discovery.

TSMC (and many other examples) show the benefit of patient capital investing in R&D for future growth.

Incidentally, some interesting British companies in the sector developing new technology and wider applications (Paragraf) being one.

This will be the harbinger for govt to begin calling for windfall taxes to be imposed on O&G and cause management to really consider London listing. Can hear the calls now. Shell too, once they announce their results.

Forgetting entirely BP for years made colossal losses after Deepwater Horizon and this is a business with multi year/decade investment timelines. A few quarters profit will be seen as nasty profiteering and potentially add to the already disastrous capital flight.

In this Id agree with PG, the London market is severely challenged by the socialist political doctrine that seems to be in the ascendancy.

Same as the calls to help with fuel payments within days of the conflict beginning- everybody wants a handout and no personal responsibility- just increase taxes on the big companies/high earners.

Sygmaa

Blind faith serves nobody well, hence outlining the timelines.

Its useful to know the dates and timelines as it impacts investment strategy and thoughts.

In the interview in October he mentioned 6 months to monetise Morocco (he may also have mentioned fully funded forna change)! In the fund raise in Jan, the RNS stated Morocco monetisation was progressing as planned but we are now out of the 6 months.

With a proposed date of end July for MOU-6 which he says will be funded externally - he probably has a max of 4 weeks to deliver on that or the dates and the monetisation then become more questionable.

Molokai

That reminds me of Bill & Ted

My rough memory of the time is Tullow pulled the Cretaceous drill to do Joe on costs.

To this day I'm amazed they did so as think it could have very much changed the outcome that followed.

Their guy Ian Cloke was very excited by the prospectivity of Guyana at the time.