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Ibiza
I'm not an expert but my knowledge such that it is makes me think:
1) Sandjet can perforate out further than explosive perforation. Using sand as a jet means the explosive impact of crumbling geology mixing with.mud and making readings impossible is less likely.
2) the gas if there is under a general seal through incline fault/anticline and the route out would be through the pressured drilling pipe. So would not escape thus.
3) damage to casing should not affect the flow rates. The sands if compacted/fractured may not allow.pressure build for extraction efficiently but again technology is improving this.
Rigless testing in and of itself shouldn't weaken the formation but how much is known of the formation itself is harder to know.
Ideally if the gas is there we will see it tested through sandjet but when.....
KeithOz has a lot of useful stuff to say, just because the test hasn't worked out doesn't mean everyone should be traduced.
I think trying to portray this as a planned issue is disingenuous. This clearly is not what management envisaged, although they clearly had a preference for Sandjet.
Their foot dragging and not having permits in place for Sandjet last Autumn has increased dilution as it is being paid for twice and we have just paid for explosive perforation to maintain licence to no avail.
My understanding is PG has rubbed up alot of industry people the wrong way in the past so this 'genius' tag is perhaps not appropriate.
I hope sandjet proves successful but don't understand the lack of clear timeline now. It was a red flag when MOU-5 started getting touted but one I see only in hindsight.
Just test and confirm if it flows and get on with it.
This isn't just run of the mill as expected, the RNS talks about redesigning the testing strategy with Sandjet. The timelines are also unclear despite ph2 supposedly being imminent after Ph1
They need to be more clear on upcoming timescales.
I can get a quote to sell easily above 8p for a reasonable chunk so there is a market
The testing outcome is disappointing but Sandjet can test the gas and pressure also.
Sandjet was due to commence for Ph.2 so I'm surprised at the delay hinted at in the RNS.
There remains good potential but again timelines aren't met, ot will start by 29th Jan sees the fact it started on 5th February.
The team needs to be carefully augmented as they are clearly struggling
Name trade
Get off the fence, you'll get splinters.
Don't think I said an A3 would have any impact, it was used as analogy to show development in ICE to show how much more efficient they now are to 20 years ago.
Hence, full EV as tech currently stands is not looking great. Harry's Garage has a god video on this for anyone interested.
As the West moves to change its energy mix it may then begin to consider tariffs for the coal fired cheap Chinese tat and technology.
China argues it is playing catch up and I am sure India will do likewise.
German industry is struggling since closing nuclear and gas prices increasing so getting the future mix right is challenging.
Fwiw I think offshore wind will need expensive maintenance at the later end of its lifecycle but onshore wind and solar have alot to commend them.
Don't agree NetZero is a massive con. Burning fossil fuels does have an impact. Science has been finding ways to reduce this. I remember in early 00s having a Audi A3 which was around 195g/km emissions.
My X3 which is much bigger has similar pedoemance to fast A3 and markedly lower emissions.
The energy mix is already changing evident with how much less coal fired is being used. If West gets its house in order early it can sanction China/Russia for pollution with Tarriffs and take back production of some aspects of production.
Don't agree NetZero is a massive con. Burning fossil fuels does have an impact. Science has been finding ways to reduce this. I remember in early 00s having a Audi A3 which was around 195g/km emissions.
My X3 which is much bigger has similar pedoemance to fast A3 and markedly lower emissions.
Androcles
Interconnectors (such as Neuconnect) can be a useful way of sharing power if for instance the base load generation in one country is lower than expected demand.
They'll be needed to provide power either via gas/solar/wave as there is a move to renewables forming a greater proportion of the energy mix. Probably helps UK/EU meet targets if generated elsewhere and piped in as needed.
Not cheap though.
Keith
Think it is also relatively simple for them to contend the well is needed to know level of connectivity, extent of assets to best establish the resources that can be declared. Thus ensuring value for shareholders, this being part of their fiduciary duty.
They can equally argue OHNYM control licensing so keeping them happy in terms of announcements is also in shareholders interests.
Keith
An interesting note, as always.
Not seeking daily updates, just don't want to wait until after Jurassic drill for results.
If commercial there seems to be a fear of early hostile bid. Looking at Cove it took 30 days for initial Shell bid and then a further several weeks for PTTP to gain victory.
Hence not sure early bids need be the worry many think.
Ultimately just my view BoD have deciding vote on what they deem is best.
May be a race to complete activity you mention by late Mar/early April given demand for SV101
Hopefully SAR picks up again for you Silverfoil.
We still don't know testing results for Ph.1 which by the RNS should have been complete around 12th February. Regardless of conjecture about it being another Ghawar/Geopolitical important. It.firstly needs to be proven up.
Not withstanding OHNYM will want to be involved in narrative, why say 14 days if not believing it.possible to share results in that time?
Messaging is an important aspect of management. Don't want my hand held but I would like schedule's they stick to.
The frustrating element is some such as GRH are suggesting results are in and we sit on a megafield the likes of which has made Saudi a major power (see prior references to Ghawar).
Alas, although info should be used until open to all, dissemination can sometimes be asymmetrical. I do hope the company isn't sharing details with selected individuals prior to wider announcement per RNS requirements.
The results as received need to be analysed and discussed with OHNYM but depends if that is all of them as a package or at each stage.
Not a fan of the mushroom approach and once a discovery is proven commercial the company should be advising its shareholders.
As a caveat - if they are seeking to prove connectivity they may wish to.do so before announcing.
After initial discovery Shell were making offers within 30 days. If connected but Jurassic not drilled then of course it may be the desire is to get closer to Jurassic drill date before announcing.
Not sure any of us want to wait until May/June for news or even later given the gunfight over the tig just now!!!
Interesting times continue.
He1 was up around 12x in a fortnight I think.
We start from a much higher MCAP to begin with but likely with a larger resource if it is commercial.
With a putative start date by 29/1 for Phase 1 testing no news prior to the end of February would be something of a shame.
However, there is OHNYM to consider and if commercial are there off takers for the GAS in country who might pay for a package deal.
Believe BoD may prefer a series of special divi through deals than one big bang share jump.
The choice between such options are first world problems mind you and one's we should be fortunate to have if the pressure andnsize plays ball.
Andy (Blowster) on Twitter saying focus has been on MOU3.
Forget the name if a technical one exists but of equipment at MOU-3 and pressure gauges remain on MOU-1, likely they can test the communi action between them as well as pressures.
Happy to be corrected/contradicted.....
BRV
I'm sure I saw quotes from the Head of Siemens stating that gas was the most cost effective and quickest way to power up vs renewables (a major market for them). He also stated hydrogen use in industry short tern was pie in the sky. Additionally, that even with Battery Electric Storage that gas stores would still be needed as back up when winds were not strong enough.
Recently, winds have been below average forecasts for the last 3 years in Western Europe.
Gas isn't quite so behaviourally volatile.
Good news here might assuage the news of losing the great Steve Wright yesterday. Soundtrack to much of my goings on since teens on R1 then R2 and a great replacement on Pick of the Pops on a Saturday when toing and froing to children's sports. RIP Steve
Sometimes we are a bit insular here in the UK, the ESG agenda our banks are proponents of is not quite so evident at an international level.
International banks are quite content to fund O&G developments including until just before the Ukraine war to Gazprom and to do so our of their international branches in London as well as further afield.
Indeed a major LNG project will be refinanced if not already by a syndicate with banks taking tickets of a billion each.
This in addition to oil majors having strong balance sheets means funding is not likely to be an issue for the right sponsor.
Ibiza
Apologies if it seemed critical, not my intention.
I'm also suggesting there should be an RNS to mark end of Ph1. May take a little time to discuss with partners is the potential for delay.
The GSA should be executable quickly I'd hope hence the time spent on it in Q4'23 one hopes.
Ther are all sorts of permutations which might involve AG taking on the initial CNG then signing an option at a price matrix on volume proven up to be the buyer of the assets (assuming commercial quantities and flows).
OHNYM and gov may want to see AG become their own version of AGIP/Total/Shell and so have their eyes on taking the assets from the licence to then work up with a chosen partner.
As for reference to "The End of the Line" I think this is close. If anyone hasn't had a look at how the band came about, it is well worth a Google to read the story of how The Travelling Wilburys were formed.
There should be news imminent, one way or another.