Member Info for InJamesweTrust

Alas there will be those clamouring for info but frankly a day here or there isn't a big deal. They may even commence testing without notifying particularly if they hope to get strong early results to give a more significant update.

If we get to mid-Feb without an RNS then I'd have an issue but to be chucking toys out of the pram when they could start today and RNS tomorrow is a bit pathetic.

Most O&G companies miss deadlines including majors so accord some leeway or bugger off and buy IBM/Nat West/Sainsburys where the plodding pace and dull predictability may suit your temperament better.

Would add to above nothing usually goes up in a straight line and there will (rightly) be profit taking along the way if opportunity presents.

Predicting £15 plus is not necessarily pie in the sky but isn't going to be seen anytime soon. The initial testing is to get CNG off the ground and show it is commercial. Depending on mmcf rates of flow then there are various suggested NPV scenarios all equating to £1.80 or less if I recall I've the life of the project. Hence, expect this to be discounted back further but if 20mmcf per day then I'd expect 30-50p range.

If it can show connectivity then it may go higher than this range and if above 20mmcf significantly then the range above may be lower than the outcome.

Still nothing is guaranteed and it would take much time and activity to prove the major prize we hope is there. With a Jurassic drill it potentially starts to demonstrate higher levels of value.

As far as TSR goes, perhaps if gas (and other substances) return testing results in commercial qualities the business intends to package and sell to Morroccan govt and/or other operators.

Congrats Silverfoil - probably a fantastic milestone. Hope you can enjoy family and hobbies as well as lie-ins.

I've a few years yet (in 40s), gives me some time to tweak my golf game before enjoying some of the lovely links courses around me when the big day comes.

What funding issues is he alluding to, as he even read the RNS. If initial testing is known and comes back positively in February I'd hope 15.9p is a distant memory!!!

Fundamentals trump technicals

This should continue to run in the period leading up to testing which is barely but a week away.

Should testing demonstrate the feasibility of the CNG at 20mcf or.more than many times the NPV of the CNG has been posited for c.50mcf a day levels. Showing the gas in other areas then sees the testing being further value accretive.

The market is a strange mistress and while we can look at NPV calcs it isn't a given as/when the market sees the light but the process seems underway.

Good to see the proposed plans, resources at CM look good, 20mcf per day perhaps a bit lower than suggested but under promise and over deliver. Seems a measured statement overall. Interested to see the Guercif ITR - they've fired the starting gun so now to see What Lies Beneath.

GLA

Chesh

The RNS mentioned as early as possible in Jan'24 so I think on reflection perhaps the latter part of Jan rather than earlier - possibly sliding to Feb. However, so long as it doesn't take too long then holder's are in for the results.

See the announcement alone bumping the SP quite a bit.

findme

given your fit out experience and north east connections hope you weren't involved in the catastrophe that was seadragon. although the steel.left the yard long before topsides for proper completion.

now that was a proper ****up.

Obadhia

No, I am not. Barely time to look in here let alone run multiple profiles on different sites.

Findme

Many of us probably find what you say BS but good of you to admit your thoughts are indeed bullsh*t

KeithOz

Thanks for notes on CM, if its 20m onshore barrels be interested to see what can be done on costs and therefore FCF. With drilling and costs AXL does very well onshore Columbia and gets great cash with low drilling costs. Perhaps this is what board want to get towards and 3k plus barrels per day.

As for testing, I'd think PG and Lonny are on site and organising as think they had to travel before Xmas at short notice.

Imagine that in Q1'24 for better or worse we will find out who is correct in their prognostications. Once clear testing has started then it is entirely possible 25p+ maybe seen.

Not sure about suppressing info for political ends but can understand Morocco not wishing for further false dawns.

FCF from CM is interesting won't necessarily be reflected in price particularly if earmarked for CapEx rather than distribution but does give PRD a luxury the likes of HE-1 doesn't have in terms of access to capital.

For me, believe there will be commercial quantities of gas, the values of CNG are multiples on where we stand today and therefore risk/reward is in balance.

Good luck to everyone else in their endeavours and Happy New Year when it comes. I look forward to a pleasant Yamazaki 18yo nip come the bells (a kind gift from my former team at a Japanese bank).

Hope you all enjoy a fabulous Christmas/holiday period. Dare say posting may drop off some and that perhaps is no bad thing.

Find me

If he isn't the second coming, Is he just a very naughty boy

Nigel not suggesting they will terminate early but you infer the pipeline is unlikely to be available and that simply isn't true. National necessity and commercial imperatives have a habit of trumping contracts.

Nigel just out of interest, who are one of the key owners of MEG? Entities relating to Kingdom of Morocco? Now I wonder what might serve the country better, exporting gas and receiving significant royalties or taking a royalty from Shell for allowing their gas to run through the pipeline.

It is not usually challenging to find small contractual infractions and use them for a purpose that you desire to elicit a new reality.

Clearly gas has to be there but the Shell southbound contract is a red herring.

The environment foe a deal will be constantly evolving. For CNG solution, how much kit is off the shelf and how much is an LLI and how is the whole funded.

I'd need to check reference to CNG as a cost but recall I think low 10s of millions mentioned. This may come from the state as a royalty adjustment, offtaker as an adjustment to pricing in a GSA or potentially from one of the banks still involved in the sector. Any funding has to be copper bottomed to prevent a Horizonte Minerals and I'm sure it will be.

PG may wish to have a CNG agreement in place and a drill of Jurassic then an exit and let someone else with the pockets decide their wider development plan if the gas is there.

Will be interesting to see how it all unfolds as testing hopefully progresses.

Putting above in to a plan may be difficult as there are likely still many variables on which road PRD will take.

I'm sure they are being considered though

Shortashrift

CPR often takes longer than envisaged so there is little point in correcting and it rhenium slipping in to 2024.

Compared to what most people see as risked potential in Guercif then Corey CPR isn't really the be all and end all unless just looking for a delay to shout from the rooftops about.

The success or not on this investment will come from Guercif and the testing whenever it takes place. If that doesn't happen in January then excuses will be wearing thin.