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Navitas are expanding their team and in anticipation of increased activity have increased their staff footprint materially in the last few months.

Not to say they won't look for JVs but they are ramping up their capacity.

One of the areas missed in commentary on Orinduik this weekend is Hammerhead. With Navitas taking their share, Ecos should be worth around 80p a share NPV basis.

Lest we forget this is a project where FID has been taken. Jethro/Joe have many similar characteristics and we have a great deal more interest in those licences which continue regardless of negotiations with Guyana.

Don't have any specific information on what to expect next week but with expiry due, I would expect some news.

What news, I would expect some parts of the licence to be relinquished (often the case) but for Orinduik to be largely intact in terms of targets in the CPR.

I'd expect the governments proportion of revenues to increase so royalty rate likely to change.

I'd expect the initial work requirement would need to be completed within 12-18 months and possibly involved drilling of Jethro areas for appraisal as well as spudding to drill at least one Cretaceous target.

Note some have suggested we may lose rights to the Cretaceous.

The deals with Navitas will have been under negotiation for some time and expect prior to it being announced the BoD & Navitas had an idea what an outline deal may require. That Navitas took a good size delegation there pre Xmas is a strong signal of intent and hopefully was well received.

Time of course will tell us!

Imagine some are waiting for the next news which I'd expect would be coming next week.

Would agree Eco has a lot more in its value locker than JHI in terms of catalysts and not sure Gil would want to give them material shares in Eco and by extension Block 1/Namibia etc.

Mr mil

Some fun analysis of upside.

For 3B/4B - I think if Nayla drilled successfully they would be keen to sell for value of oil in ground and wider licence implications/value.

For Jethro/Joe and channels - I think in FID this is 20% of a producing field and an NPV of 150-200k bopd production. The porosity ofnthe rocks and mobility of the oil were considered major positives at the time. So take your margin and do an NPV with discount fact for Eco and mine comes out a good bit north of CAD3.5.

Just this and 3B/4B are huge moves over today's price and even if discounted back further represent great potential value opportunity.

The dips are not much fun for anyone holding I'd guess but depends on your view and to some extent entry point.

The licence expires next week and within that timeline I'm sure the BoD would like to announce the way forward on Orinduik - or at least the terms of any extension/surviving rights (to Jethro/Joe).

The BoD has made strong noises about relatuins with Guyana government and running with Navitas is likely to be the quickest solution to monetising Orinduik for Guyana.

Then more info as we progress.

I'd need to go back and check the CPR but the 2020 one had around a TCF of gas best case for Orinduik.

Intra-day and day to day movements are never purely linear as others have noted.

The longer to medium term picture here is extremely bright in my view and that is what I'm invested for not to trade in and out on minor movements.

Just imagine FID is taken towards the end of the year and what that means for the wider licence.

Good RNS this morning. Canaccord and Berenberg are good to have on board.

Keely seems like a good appointment for Namibia and Block1.

With further news due in the next week or so and more in coming months it promises much.

Ideally, if/when Navitas farm in and licence details are crystallised - I'd expect a business plan for Orinduik to be formulated soon after which gives clarity on aims and likely activity (I'm sure it is already in place Subject to govt negotiations).

Believe the next 6-10 weeks will yield news on Namibia also.

As far as Namibia goes - look what Total has paid in carries to get hold of 3B/4B and Shell more recently. There is strong demand there it seems.

Ronald why don't you give us your valculation of what the Jethro/Joe discovery is worth and what 3B/4B would be worth in the event of a discovery.

Not to mention Block1 CBK and Namibia.

Thanks Supra - yes feels like it is important at times to counter the hyperbole.

Nothing is a given but there is a good potential for reward versus risk here.

This one is for Ronald but with a different header.

You may have missed Navitas striking an agreement with Eco Ronald - giving them funds for G&A for the next 18 months. They have done this due to interest in Ecos portfolio of assets.

Even if they weren't in that timeframe 3B/4B fully funded by Total is likely to be drilled and if successful worth over a $1bn to Eco. For oil in the ground.

These are catalysts and change the value of a company fundamentally and thr share price moves to close the gap recognising this.

Ronald younappear to have missed the bit where others talk of the $20m plus coming to Eco and how Navitas has provided loans to RKH to fund their drilling costs, preventing dilution.

Hence, sometimes this year FID is likely and that sees us move in to a whole new ball park.

If Eco can sell 3b/4b to Total on a successful drill of Nayla it will be well funded for a divi and drilling costs and believe that to be their intention on that licence.

Others have posted how SA are seeking to accelerate exploration for the cashflow it will produce for govt as well as the employment.

You wonder if the coming fortnight gives us news about plans to appraise Jethro/Joe and a Cretaceous target beneath for development and possibly 150-200k bopd production potential. 20% of that is just enormous given this is already a discovery.

Everyone can do an NPV of 30-40k bopd net to Eco and identify the gap from the current SP.

Then what does the value for the rest of the licence value at.

Or forgetting this and looking at 3B/4B it just stacks up well.

If Trump wants to take on Iran and help the protesters, he needs to be able to maintain oil access and Venezuela probably helps with this. Also allows DEA in to close down drug barons and probably confiscate billions a la Clear and Presebt Danger.

These geopolitical games of Chess are hard to predict and would expect some wrinkles are still to come. However, it is good for Guyana as US will not be easily removed from Caracas.

Justathought

Was looking at Sealion also to understand if Rockhopper had been diluted beyond the initial partnership when Navitas came in and seemingly not. From other deals, Navitas are generating 100k bopd at Shenandoah which will provide cashflow that can be recycled as loans/investment given them a good turn on the returns from Shenandoah which are already good returns on their initial investment.

A similar model for Orinduik works and as they move up the curve to FID they have the balance sheet to fund.

Seems like a good partnering approach

Valuations

So much is dependent on geology but we have the benefit of 2 discoveries and HH unitisation that are probably initial focus on Orinduik and the 3b/4b drill in Namibia.

3b/4b targets c.4-5bn barrels with Nayla the initial target being around 800m barrels. Thats about 225m/42m barrels net to Eco at $3/$10 so I would guess a successful drill there is $1bn.

Jethro and associated channels are 800m barrels plus in the Tertiary prospects. A FID there is worth $2.5bn plus NPV to Eco ($5bn gross).

Hammerhead - our 20% share of the amount on our licence is worth $200m NPV. Across the licence its $1bn - that pays for alot of drilling.

This says nothing about the other 5bn barrels in Orinduik, JHI, Block1 or Namibia.

So I think the re-rate is very much still underway.

Eco has c.$4m - the G&A xash burn is much reduced as management reduced salaries and Colin no longer draws one.

There is cash from Block 1 CBK farm out and likely crystallisation of Orinduik option. That is 3+ years runway on G&A.

On Orinduik they have a 55m carry and with money to come from 3b/4b another $8.5m to carry their 20% funding.

For Block 1/Namibia look what Shell has paid to get in to the SA Block. Eco expect movement in Namibia early in 2026.

So across Block 1, Namibia and Orinduik no cash is needed for the foreseeable future. Hence any suggestions of being over valued are tosh.

For JHI, I wonder if Eco retained some sort of option when declining to cement the position last time or some sort of matching or ROFR provision for their interests. This giving Navitas a handy in and Eco having a data room full of JHI info that could be shared with Navitas (NDA permitting).

Certainly interesting times and while upwards trends are rarely straight lines - Ronald T seems like a windbag - ironically one who is here only to deflate things.

Harel

Do you see it as a catalyst from the current levels or just something extra down the line which could drive value?