Member Info for InJamesweTrust

There may be budget for more than $55m spend.

If options are taken up Eco in Q3'26 is likely to have c.$20-30m in cash.

Their share of costs are 20%.

If they can also unitise with Exxon on Hammerhead then that's tens of millions more.

Harel - drilling may be in later Q2/into Q3 as you say but there may be a decent amount of it!

Harel

I'd expect the first well prior to Q4'26.

I'd expect news on Namibia in Q1 '26.

Depending on what this week constitutes, I'd expect drill news from Guyana within 3 weeks.

For Block1 I'd expect a bit longer but with the interest they have and activity around it and the potrntial transformationa status of Eco's balance sheet in the next 12 months and the extra heft this gives them for Block 1 plans/discussions that isn't a bad thing.

Interesting times ahead.

The payment for Guyana option gives Eco a decent cash runway now and there are likely further payments to come around licence option being taken up by Navitas and further options payments for Block1/Namibia with the money also due on 3B/4B but that may take a bit longer.

Barnet Peter

That is surely one of the most comprehensive investment theses seen on these boards.

Thanks for your informative input.

So he mentions there $8 a barrel net to Eco for oil in the ground. With 20% of the two targets that is potentially 320-400m barrels net to Eco. Knock down the $8 for Joe and Jethro to $5 and you still get $6.50 a barrel.

Needs deep pockets but lots of companies looking for good opportunities to develop fields and remove exploration risk.

Also a bit more than £2 a share intrinsic value on that basis.

Yes should be some interesting meetings this coming week I'd think.

Marvin

Don't have any MNPI but have been fortunate enough to meet management regularly.

In my spare time I'd also brought to the table a potential deal with a MidCap OilCo who noted interest in what the Guyana licences has to offer as was keen to see action on the licence but with Navitas the BoD had it in hand.

I was just using public info to put this together but was enough to get them interested.

Navitas have looked at all of the VDR info on drilling, logs and the info shared by Exxon on Hammerhead and are willing to put material equity down to capitalise on the Orinduik licence and take a look at investing in other licences. Believe Orinduik deal signed first to give comfort to govt on renewal.

Posts are just my opinion but with research to the extent my knowledge allows!!

Marvin

Anything is possible but I'm not sure that is the aim. I think an extension and having HH and Joe/Jethro rights recognised plus commitment to drill is the aim.

Think they will be keen to drill in Q1'26.

Marvin

Do you think Eco has not been discussing options with Guyana officials for some time and more recently included Navitas in these?

The licence needs an extension of that there is no doubt and Guyana wants a drill so here is a partnership with the knowledge to drill within weeks.

How long do you think a new process would take?

My understanding is discussions are well advanced and think upcoming visits are likely to finalise these.

Would be fair to say this also occupied Total's attention in the area with the issues arising at Tullow

https://www.offshore-energy.biz/total-farms-into-apaches-suriname-offshore-block/

Where they farmed in with Apache as the well was still being drilled so yes you can talk about delineation but I expect a major to farm in and take 50% (40 from Navitas and 10 from Eco) and let's just be clear 10% gross of an 800m barrel field is $2.4bn and on NPV $1.4bn - - that is $12bn gross and $7bn net x2 for the major.

At $6 a barrel that's £1.30 per field if just selling

out. Handy funds for future development.

Total was not the operator of the field and given the challenges faced by Tullow it lost patience.

The loss of Venezuelan and Russian heavy oil has also flipped the dynamic since 2019.

The oil in Joe/Jethro can be commercially developed but some costs are higher.

You may drill a Cretaceous target nearby and mix the oils from each or mix them on an FPSO.

Might mean the umbilical and some infrastructure needs refreshed 2 or 3 x during the life of the field but these are surmountable obstacles.

Depending on the size of field delineation need not all be upfront as we have good seismic and strong initial field size. So comparing samples taken from drills would be feasible.

As mentioned many times - firstly, Navitas has reviewed all of the Joe/Jethro info in the VDR and believe it viable

After confirming oil and.pressure.they are likely to bring in a partner to develop this and the Aurituk field.

Given the increasing challenges in Shale and the US sanctioning shadow fleet vessels what price access to a ready to develop field(s) for Indian and Chinese companies as well as BP/She'll as they pivot from Renewables.

Easy to paint a gloomy picture but need to tell the whole story

Marvin

Understand there was another suitor but the ability of Navitas to execute at pace was the deciding factor between the parties. Driving value in Guyana allows Eco a better negotiating position across their remaining assets.

I've mentioned before I think any licence renewal will be tilted towards requiring drilling in 2026 on Orinduik with a multi year option being triggered after 2 drills have been done but further activity required in each of those years.

So with that in mind and for Navitas the quicker you drive value the higher your IRR then they will want to get drilling.

My feeling is with Eco having done a full EIA for Guyana before so permitting should be reasonably quick and I'd like is to be drilling by Easter.

Any arrangement on other licences rights with Navitas is subject to separate commercial negotiation.

The portfolio is more widely in play and Eco can be a bit more robust in negs. News on Namibia with all the closely located catalysts before Mar/Apr 26 I think.

Https://x.com/i/status/1998690908640825492

Explained well here and many maps and figures relating to Eco on Robin's timeline.

As he suggests, 850m barrels in Jethro/Joe and 20% is 170m barrels at c.$5 a barrel.

That is $850m or around £675m so about £2.15 a share.

Then there is the stacked drill 1bn barrels

3b/4b to prove the play and sell

Namibia news

Block 1CBK opportunities - look at recent farm in activity Eco references on Twitter.

I'll not be selling for a while from here.

Spudz

Have been semi burnt with Eco before by leaving too much in. Folk will have sell points though ane land marks like 25p will have some saying time to sell.

For me, let's see news between now and appraisal/drilling activity - am sure there may be pull backs but believe the general direction of travel is up.

Even with the revised holding of the licence our share of Hammerhead annually is $60m a year plus. That alone could see annual dividends equivalent to the current MCAP.

In terms of Jethro, that's 30k barrels a day net to Eco which I'd equate to $250m a year in value.

The $55m covers in my view both Iatuk and the Jethro appraisal.

The drilling already done for Jethro so just need casing etc on Iatuk so if ancillary costs are $10mish thats 80-90 days of drill rig availability at $500k per day.

Maybe some further funds needed for deliveries to and from rig so a few days of AHTS/PSV hire too but you get the idea. Enough time for both activities.

Taking Guyana and 20% of 5bn barrels.

$30 a barrel over 15 years is a gross $30+ billion dollars. What price that for a major.

Let's be clear, the first two drills are 400m barrels net on a success case so that's $9bn gross.

These are numbers after all costs are recovered for the funder ao our current £65m MCAP doesnt seem toppy to me.

Lots atill needs to go right but there is significant upside potential from today's level still.