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Taking Guyana and 20% of 5bn barrels.

$30 a barrel over 15 years is a gross $30+ billion dollars. What price that for a major.

Let's be clear, the first two drills are 400m barrels net on a success case so that's $9bn gross.

These are numbers after all costs are recovered for the funder ao our current £65m MCAP doesnt seem toppy to me.

Lots atill needs to go right but there is significant upside potential from today's level still.

JBCo

You appear not to have much of a clue about the current situation or the previous events and licence percentages.

As for Avanza - the significant rise may result in single name concentration issues seeing them selling down.

Baillie Gifford used to be thr 2nd biggest holder of Tesla and as it increased had to keep selling down as they breached their concentration limits.

The SP has managed to increase 50% plus as Avanza have churned 3m+ shares. So id say a major positive in terms of the order book rather than look for negatives.

If memory serves we had 250m shares in issue in 2019 and 15% of the licence (16m shares per 1%) and hit 60p pre drill and 177p on discovery.

We now have 20% and 315m shares which is 15.75m shares per % of the licence so broadly the same.

So do we hit 60p in the run up to drilling. Difference is this is an appraisal drill not exploration (if Jethro is done first) with the realistic prospect now of a partner to develop. Navitas will have closely reviewed the logs and reservoir characteristics in the VDR to get comfortable with the prospects of Jethro/Joe and Aurituk.

In the meantime we may hear about Namibia and drilling plans.

Marvin - not the extension, the commercial declaration relating to Jethro/Joe I think has gone through. With some details around the extent of the licence area covered to be finalised.

In terms of the licence, id imagine terms are quote close to agreement and when Navitas and Eco are there this would be documented and signed with the Government officials.

Nothing ever guaranteed that is why for Navitas its an option but theu must be pretty content at the stage of discussions to sign up and expend the time on the deal.

Dont expect Guyana is contingent on SeaLion in any way. For Navitas, SeaLion is independent and probably still in the difficult overall box. Guyana is producing 1m+ barrels per day and has a positive approach to development.

Firmly believe they drill ASAP in 2026 and bring in a major for both fields. There are clear examples of FDP locally so moving to FID should be reasonably quick after some further drilling.

Maverick- there is a carry on $55m of drill costs without any Mob/Demob liability. That if they exercise the option provides the funds for drilling.

The $2m option fee gives them cash runway through to Q3'26 Id estimate by then they may have received further payments for Block 1 ($4m), 3B/4B ($8.5m) and Namibia if/when we get news.

So im not sure a raise is required.

Am sure some will be profit taking at different levels from here but with news on Namibia, Licence, 3B/4B and drill dates there is a reasonable flow of info that should keep the order book going.

Trying to buy more- twice changed limit order and not filled yet. Average in the 8s so even a chunk in the 12s im content this will perform well.

Visit is this week.

Posted at the weekend, Navitas has a drillrig available in the Carribean at Shenandoah while Eco i think suggested some drillships are available in Guyana also. Hence, subject to EIA/reg approvals they can get going quickly.

Perhaps better to bring this to the fore, rather than politics. Navitas has a rig available and cost around 500k per day as I mentioned. There are also rigs locally, not all active at all times so subject to permission am sure there is eagerness to get on with drilling...

https://www.offshore-energy.biz/transocean-scoops-up-518-million-drillship-gig-in-gulf-of-mexico/

By LostAllMyAimShirts

Perhaps worth noting on the eve of Oct 7th, Israel was about to sign a peace accord with Saudi Arabia and others which Iran though its Hamas proxy wanted to obstruct and so essentially declared war on Israel in terms so barbaric that it shocked the world. While Israel has undoubtedly overdone the response don't lost sight of where (and how brutally) it started.

If France invaded the UK and raced and pillage 15k people and took a few thousand hostages and posted videos celebrating it saying they had the backing of Germany ( proxy bigger country to replace Iran) who would fund and support ongoing actions similar to that just perpetrated.

Would you auggest the UK would roll over and ignore these acts?

Https://www.offshore-energy.biz/transocean-scoops-up-518-million-drillship-gig-in-gulf-of-mexico/

Contract for 1,080 days beginning in July 2023 and running to 2026. There are some other options from a rig perspective.

Marvin

Already being done and/or close to being complete.

Anglat

Thats why you prove the oil and check pressure buildup and flows and then present evidence to the Majors who see it as a derisked prospect. As I have mentioned see the future holdings as 50% Major/40%Navitas/10% Eco with Navitas and Eco carried to production.

Thats 10% of 2bn barrels ir 10% of 350-400k bopd if the drilling goes well and the SP would then staŕ to reflect a discounted NPV of such prospects with the discount unwinding as FDP is executed.

Anglat

Probably worth looking back at the RNS from the time of discovery and believe it mentioned that due to the high temperature of the field there was good mobility for the oil.

As for Cretaceous that i think is Iatuk not at Joe/Jethro - just.my own view.

Rehauer

5% is fairly nonsensical, while that would still ve 300m barrels plus it is not how it will go as Navitas would need to form down 60%.

As for repaying $11m - in production of a single field at 200k barrels even if down to 5% that would take less than a month.

My own belief is Navitas want to prove up and farm out development to a major. With 80% a major can come in and take 40 from them and 10 from us and fast track fields even more quickly than Navitas who may retain operatorship but get the field to benefit from a majors balance sheet for an RBL or similar.

That leaves Eco 10% of a 6bn barrels field plus, 3B/4B, plus Block 1 and Namibia where I think we will also drill next year.

Having a partner means Eco cam negotiate on these fields more strongly and if you take a 1yr/5yr/10yr view its a rosy picture

-1yr proven up 2bn barrels in Iatuk and Jethro, prove the Cretaceous plays and farm out the entiree field for carry.

5yr - 10% of 3+ producing fields on Orinduik or we have sold these to the major.

10yr - Namibia and Block1 producing and Eco still holds a material percentage.

None of this looked probably on Wednesday and subject to licence extension this would appear to be a game changer.

Oh, and HH can (once proven sufficiently) be sold to Exxon to fund the first two FDP equity requirements if no desire to involve a major. Leaving Eco 20% of 6bn barrels.

Spudz

It isnt about leverage with Guyana, they will want to see a plan to establish commerciality of the licence both in terms of Jethro and Im sure a Cretaceous target. They have a great deal of exposure to Exxon as a partner and if Navitas can get a major in to partner having proven up the Cretaceous play as the right API and sweetness then the attraction of Orinduik is there. Bringing someone new in would take longer so id imagine a 1 year extension with a defined work programme and options on the basis they complete the work.

As for valuation, while a pound would be great 20% of Iatuk and Jethro is 4-500m barrels and $5-10 a barrel for oil in the ground is a good bit over £1.

However, they need to prove it first so let's hopefully get the work programme and extension sorted next week and get drilling in Feb/Mar.

News on Namibia by end Q1.

We will know more about drill intentions once they have been to Guyana later in the month.

Robs12

A big part of a drill is mob and demob.

The daily rate for a drillship is around $500k per day. So add in $10-15m for pipe and materials youve got up 80 days of drilling time.

The appraisal on Jethro is probably 20 days. That leaves up to 60 days of vessel availability.

Hammerhead Just needs oil out of ground to confirm it is the same as Exxons sample thats probably 15 days. That leaves 45 days for a stacked target (Iatuk).

That would be quite the trifecta if doable.

Thats $55m of drill budget and doesn't include Mob/Demob of the rig. So thats 50 or so days of drill time. Appraising Jethro given it has been drilled shouldn't be too much of that time as it has been drilled then on to Iatuk and if done efficiently may be Hammerhead too.