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The post below is from EagleHasLanded from over in the other place. I think it’s a half decent reply from Joe but some of the item lines he mentions may be small numbers in the overall scheme of things. I’d like to see the management and consultant bonuses broken down. IMVHO consultants charge very high fees already so I personally don’t think they should get bonuses, they should just get paid for what they do! Mates????????
Https://twitter.com/gregpeck_07/status/1696577900126892527?s=46&t=i2yuLTwk3Z4JP-weMNoS5g
I hold here but concerned about the lack of transparency over admin expenses. Up from under $1.3m Q2 2022 - to over $3.4m Q2 2023 - a 270% increase year-on-year for a small company. Why the disproportionate rise in G&A costs just for adding a few wells on production?
Arrow Exploration Corp - oil and gas company with projects in Colombia and Canada - Swings to pretax income of USD2.1 million in the first half of 2023 from a loss of USD4.7 million the previous year as the company records significantly higher revenue in the period. Revenue more than doubles to USD17.3 million from USD8.4 million the year prior. Average corporate production in the half more than doubled to 2,169 barrel of oil equivalent per day from 980 boed the year prior. Realized corporate oil operating netbacks rose to USD44.21 per barrel thanks to increased production allowing operating cost to be spread over more barrels.
More on Arrow tomorrow but this is a very sound set of figures that reinforce my optimism about their current drilling programme and the build up of production as promised at the time of arrival into the London market. My Target Price remains at 50p and I’m looking forward to interviewing Marshall Abbott when he comes to London shortly.
Oh and PS from me - PANR up 25% on a decent reserves report today. I think that the market will not be able to ignore a strong reserves report from Arrow in the same way that they ignore positive drilling news.
Time will tell - we will see soon enough.
I’ll get the herd here.
https://twitter.com/gregpeck_07/status/1696442917567553968?s=46&t=i2yuLTwk3Z4JP-weMNoS5g
Hence the comments. They are building a much improved model of that field. How many wells can they put down on CN - going to be over 20 by the look of it. That’s one hell of an asset and my read is that it’s not in the price.
1 No “PLEASED to announce” always means a poor or average RNS coming. On this occasion it was average and as expected.
2 Thought MA would have been a bit more upbeat with his comments with doubling revenue, production and moving from negative (-$.01m) operating cashflow to positive ($4.9m) cashflow. Hopefully MA saving himself for media interviews post CN3 results next week and Proactive presentation on 7/9/23.
3 Big take away for me is consistent 100 feet thick Ubaque, especially as CN2 drilled south of CN1 and CN3 drilled north of CN1. Reserves report will be material to AXL and quite possibly transformational.
Not surprised or concerned with SP reaction today, it just gives a good price to buy in but it could quite possibly go lower this week before big news flow next week. Am watching closely for buys coming in especially in Canada although their volumes very low. We need to do something about that.
To come
CN3 results
Media interviews and pre station in London nest week
Reserves report update September
2nd rig bought in soon
More wells before Christmas
Warrants out of the way within 2 months with hopefully good news on how they are exercised
Hopefully 4kboepd by end of year
Q3 and Q4 will be far bet as we can expect netback way higher than $44 with rising POO
3 bagger within 12 months for me.
Couldn’t agree more GP7 - another top up sub 17p.
Been watching this long enough. The pecker is loading now. Ridiculously cheap now.
Watching this one. Stinking results. Another hit with the drill but. Why’s it down?!
@RockeyRide As per RNS and confirmed by @whistler51, CN3 results should be provided first week of Sept. Please share price, up, up and away.
The Carrizales Norte-3 (CN-3) well has been drilled and is currently undergoing production testing in the Upper Ubaque. Stabilized flow rates are expected to be reported in first week of September.
-------------------------------
Outlook: Positive.
Hopefully the market sees the results the same way.
@RockyRide 6 and 7 weeks respectively with updates along the way which I really like. Credit to the management team for these regular updates unlike several of my other holdings.
Were CN1 & 2 reported to us within 6 weeks of spud? I think they may have been and if so we could get CN3 RNS anytime now as 6 weeks from spud is this coming Thursday.
Other news within the next few weeks, hopefully reserves update in September and some good news on the 60m or so outstanding warrants. Oh and a 2nd rig to be brought in during Q4. So All in all, quite a lot to look forward to before Santa comes.
Keep the updates coming Mr F, it’s good work you do.
An electric car, Mr F? … You’re brave.
You do know that EdF, between 2021 & 2026, will have shut down 12 reactors. Hinkley Pt C is not due on line until 2027 having just been delayed 1year & will provide less than half the power output of the 12.
Also EV’s run on software. S/W engineers are the only engineers that create products with flaws & bad designs, only they call them “bugs” & “glitches”. Ford would never sell another fossil fuel car if you phoned them with a brake problem & they told you to switch off the engine, get out the car, get back in again & restart the engine to see if that cured it. But that’s what you’ve been told for your computer for … ever.
And yes climate change is coming, a fact. The Romans grew grapes in Northumbria, in Dickens time the Thames froze over. There’s always been hot & cold spells. Google worst greenhouse gas & you’ll find it’s not CO2 nor NOx, it’s water vapour! Since 7/8ths of the planet is covered in H2O, I’m not sure there’s a lot we can do about it.
One thing for sure is that arable land will be at a premium & what do we do? Build houses on it. It’s madness.
Time to get off my soap box. Cheers :)
The weekly chart looks fine. Even though other technical indicators might signal a "sell," waiting for them to indicate a "buy" often results in being late to react:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/561Bjnpj/
On positive momentum, the price might go up to 51% towards the highest trend line before possibly breaking out. The recent Relative Strength Index (RSI) hit its lowest point last week.
The lower price level is a bit safeguarded by the money generated from production and the warrants, which will support our expansion next year. Worldwide oil demand is increasing. I've also taken steps like installing solar panels and purchasing an electric car to balance out my investments in AXL and WENS and anticipate higher prices in O&G.
As at some point we may be acquiring or being acquired, I thought it worth putting this quick post together with regards recent purchase prices of per 2P and per flowing barrel. Zengas is an absolutely fantastic poster on the SAVE board and put 2 really good posts together on 26th August. Well worth a read for background info and this will give us some sort of a benchmark as and when and if we end up buying or being bought.
In full agreement with you Rocky, I added today too :)
Https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/register/event_details/429
Anyone going?
Added more today as I’m hoping we have plateaued at the current price. We’re also in for a very busy period of news and company PR over the coming weeks and months. Inevitably there will be bumps along the way but I think that on the balance of probability we will see a lot more positive news on Han negative along the way. Biggest risk I see at the moment of s the jurisdiction of the Country in which we are active. Genuinely looking for a 2 bagger from current price up to around 50p within the next 12 months. Apart from CN3 results I eagerly await the updated reserves report and the analysis of the latest seismic being issued once the data has been fully processed and integrated to existing knowledge. Regarding new licences and extensions I need to do more research.
Updated chart and I have conveniently added a new trendline:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/bh3Rd9EU/
50% upside to the top trendline.
(sometimes this all bs, but 51% of the time it ain't so any edge be it 1% is visible to all).
Bangrak and EvenL are absolutely correct. A professional when selling will ensure selling for the highest price over the period to avoid becoming a distressed seller. It is hard to believe there are distressed sellers other than PIs. The low volume indicates what's driving the fear is actually on low volume driven by increased chat on private discussion groups, Twitter and forums. I believe the results are out next Wednesday for the period ending June 23rd?
Don't underestimate the impact of self-fulfilling prophecy. People believe that the warrants will have a big impact. The smart investor have already sold their shares at a much higher SP to exercise the warrants close to expiry to keep the initial holding intact. 22% of the shares are in retail hands. Institutions 33% Retail 22% Canacol 19.5% High net worth individuals 19% Management 6.5%.
Most of these people are here because of the track record of the management with no intention to sell shares to exercise warrants. And the rational investor will sell shares elsewhere to pay for warrants here if the SP is getting completely silly. Like now.
50 mill warrants left. Most of them in sticky hands.
So if it's not the warrant holders selling existing shares that they can then buy back at 9p, then what is causing the sp to drift lower after all the good news recently?
What other possibilities have you explored..