We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
Don't underestimate the impact of self-fulfilling prophecy. People believe that the warrants will have a big impact. The smart investor have already sold their shares at a much higher SP to exercise the warrants close to expiry to keep the initial holding intact. 22% of the shares are in retail hands. Institutions 33% Retail 22% Canacol 19.5% High net worth individuals 19% Management 6.5%.
Most of these people are here because of the track record of the management with no intention to sell shares to exercise warrants. And the rational investor will sell shares elsewhere to pay for warrants here if the SP is getting completely silly. Like now.
50 mill warrants left. Most of them in sticky hands.
And Mr.F. What makes this even better for AXL is that Petrotal is not producing 21000 bopd. 19000 for Q2 and 12000 for Q1. So an average of c. 15000 bopd for H1. Usually "something" happens with Ptal. Their goal for 2022 was avg 17500-19000 bopd, but came in at 12-13000 bopd. They never meet their goals and should be trading at a discount to AXL. (PTAL is still cheap).
Once warrants are exercised - 80 mill warrants outstanding - the warrants will add another $7.5 mill cash in the bank. Today it would mean a £60 mill mcap and US22.5 mill in the bank . A micro/smallcap with 1/3 of SP backed by cash. We're currently generating $2 mill a month. With a bit of luck and 4-5 new wells with a avg 300 bopd (conservative) flow rate we're looking at ~$5 mill netbacks pr month. If the SP doesn't move by October I would be very surprised :-)
Q3 results was end of november last year, and probably same this year. Some kind of operational update are probably just around the corner. Spud soon?
This is not about Coho cash flow. ~ US $500 000 pr month. TXP remains overvalued based on current production + Coho. It's all about investor confidence and the ability to capitalize the discoveries. This is the first one. TXP is very ubdervalued on 2p reserves (Cascadura) which they now prove they can bring to market!
Everyone here have proably seen the "Trinidad energy map". Trinidad is a spiderweb of gas pipelines. One of the biggest LNG exporters in the world. How come they can't finish a "micro" gas project within reasonable time?
In 2011 NGC projected a 92 km pipeline from the offshore BHP field. Construction started sept 2009 - first gas april 2011. 1,5 years - 92 km of offshore pipeline. 90% offshore. Massive project. AND 10 km was actually ONSHORE. Of course it was tied in to a new facility onshore with all the paperwork along the way. My point is: There are people in Trinidad that can manage this kind of projects. Coho is not the first gas project in X years - it's the first onshore gas well. Should be much easier? All the projecting stuff have been done "lately".
I really think the Cascadura project will be much better with the NGC doing the projecting. Lessons learnt.
The SP action is frustrating for sure, but we still have third-party verified gas discoveries of 300-500 bcf worth multiples of current mcap.
TXP is now valued similar to the Carapal ridge/central block (Aventura) takeover in 2004 when domestic gas price in Trindad was $1.10. Aventura had 300 bcf 2p reserves at the time.
First of all.. The TSX energy index is down 25% since topping out two weeks ago. TXP is down 20% on super tiny volume in the same period. Yesterday - TXP down 4.76% (TSX). Index down 6.92%.
The downturn in the energy sector over the last two weeks is just beaten by march 2020 and the financial crisis. The oil price is $111 today . Warren Buffet added lots of Occidental petroleum stock over the last weeks/days.
In 2020 NGC made deals with both BHP and TXP. BHP has a $194 billion market cap. Within two months NGC signed deals with TXP and BHP. NGC will get 100% of the gas from TXP and from BHPs offshore "Ruby field". I'll guess the terms are quite similar? I will guess a giant energy company has done their due diligence?
From 2009 - 2011 NGC built the a 54 km offshore pipeline (24 - 94m depth) - 800m onshore pipeline to BHPs Angostura field. 54 km... And people believe Trinidadiens can't do a onshore pipeline. In 2018 Trinidad was the seventh largest global LNG producer and had 3.5% of global LNG exports.
Come on.
Stock down 30% from ATH for "no good reason". Just a matter of patience.
And nothing to solve the underlying problem - the need of O&G for decades to come. "Oil & gas discoveries in 2021 to hit lowest level in 75 years" - Rystad Energy. ESG mandates and the total lack of interest/money to invest in O&G. It has to stop at some point. The question is - when are politicians going to take this seriously? EU will have a MAJOR gas problem the coming winter - starting in August.
Non-performance? TXP had done 400% over three years and 760% over five years .. and more to come.. Some bumps in the road. But the the story is intact.
From the top of my head.. A few of the best wells at Penal-Barrackpore had initial flow at 1000-2000 bopd and was over 1 mill barrels. These wells were drilled decades ago. Can hopefully get the same or better results with better seismic, understanding and techniques.
IF Royston field proves to be the same as Penal-Barrackpore.... We're a micro cap with a 100 mill barrel onshore oil field. And a gas field... and fantastic exploration assets.