Member Info for KingSuarez

No thanks - they are 2/3rd the market cap of ALTN with zero production. ALTN already have 3.5m oz gold resource and churning out cash - a better value investment imho.

Yes, thanks :) Unfortunately she missed the 'king' part of my moniker!

Some feedback from IR, which I will post verbatim:

"The key components and units of the Akatara gas processing facility were sourced globally. Countries of origin include, but are not limited to, the USA, Canada, Germany, Italy, China, Japan and Korea. Only one of the project’s 34 main packages comes solely from China and none of the key units at the Akatara Gas Processing Facility were skid mounted in China.

The factory acceptance testing (FAT) for the key components and units took place in several locations, including the countries of origin listed above as well as in Singapore and Indonesia (for certain equipment) once the equipment and units arrived in region.

While the individual components of the refrigeration compressor (including its motor) were subject to an FAT before being delivered to site, it is not the industry standard to FAT the entire unit before it arrives on site, particularly if the individual components are being sourced from different countries/manufacturing hubs globally.

The EPCI contractor, JGC, is a reputable and financially strong contractor, which has successfully completed many projects in Indonesia, including gas processing plants. JGC was not solely selected on the basis of the bid price, but also its capability and reputation. JGC has Japanese leadership at site and also in Jakarta and is bringing its global expertise to bear on the project. JGC remains responsible (both in terms of activity and cost) for delivering a fully commissioned and functioning gas processing facility at Akatara and is fully committed to doing so.

As stated at the results last week, we have reached c.20mmscfd of raw gas input into the plant and c.14mmscfd of sales gas. Condensate production and sales have also commenced. The issues we have experienced with the export compressor and refrigeration compressor are teething issues and are normal for a plant of this scale and nature. The refrigeration compressor motor repairs are ongoing, and we remain confident this issue will be resolved shortly."

was at the proactive event tonight - paul hung around for questions afterwards. some snippets of conversations below in no particular order:

1) akatara seems 'close' to being on stream - paul said they were going to be doing a 'dry run' test this evening - this is not 'official news' yet.

2) the issues are with various components that have suprised management with the poor quality - apparently this seems to be a growing industry wide problem!

3) focus is on de-leveraging the balance sheet. assured me they will get the cash position back to where it was before the montara issues..

4) they have identified an fpso for the sfa cluster psc offshore peninsular malaysia development - good news is that they will be letting a contractor operate this!

5) i asked about montara cost and infill drilling - he said not to take this as guidance(!) but the next infill well will be a side-track and expects that to be bring production back to near where it was i.e 10k bopd - then there is another infill well planned, i think he said in a couple of years?

6) i mentioned the gas at montara and he said he thinks there is 300-500bcf there. plan would be to sell it outright to shell, rather than operate. they have had informal discussions as shell needs extra gas to feed the prelude facility. i asked if there was any indicative price and paul just said i'll take a dollar for it!

7) doesn't look like any immediate acquisitions on the agenda (want to pay down rbl short term) but the banks are accommodating if you wish to buy producing reserves. he is v keen to get more of cwlh to take operatorship.

8) point was made about aim exchange being ****e at the moment and so potentially looking at a listing elsewhere? problem being that some of the funds hold jse because it is london listed, which might mean they would need to sell, though they could transfer holdings to alternative fund(s). no certainty over any of this.

9) he's done another malcy interview, so guess that should be out soon.

10) i asked whether he would/could buy some more shares - he would like to 'in principal' but there is 'blackout period' right now.

11) asked about buybacks - they do not currently have shareholder approval. may request this at the next agm and could possibly do so before, but thinks the rbl provider would not be 'keen' on them doing buybacks at this stage - sounds like they would like to in principal however.

12) he has spoken to institutions recently and apparently some funds have been buying..

that's all i can remember!

Yes, the banks don't give an S H 1 T and won't help you out. I moved from Lloyds to AJBell because of this very reason!

Thanks - think I have been looking at some generic composite index and not the relevant coal prices!

Again, and for the third time - the net cash position has grown $1.2m in the month of August, during which the company spent c$2.5m drilling an additional horizontal well to increase production.

Capex spend is fuelling production growth, which will fuel cash flow.

Hello,

Been looking at this as it appears v cheap on fundamentals and latest financials, HOWEVER I note coal prices in India have risen massively..

From 225INR in Jan 2023 to 522INR in July 2024.

To what degree is this already factored into forward earnings guidance? Have they hedged much and/or can they pass this input cost increase onto customers easily?

Thanks

Hi,

I used to be a shareholder here so am familiar with the business model and have kept an eye on this with a view to re-entering a position at some point.

I see revenues and AUM growing - lovely stuff, however expenses growing faster than revenue? Yet Allenby Capital forecast a sudden drop in expenses in their 2024 forecast to bring ALGW to more or less cash flow neutral.

1) Operating expenses grew from £2.4m to £3.8m between 2022 and 2023 - I look at Note 4 in the accounts for an explanation and see 'Other expenses' grew from £1.1m to £2.9m(!) - why? Marketing? This is a huge increase?

Operating expenses are then forecast to drop, markedly, to £2.2m in FY 2024 - how and why?

2) Expenses in managing owned insurance companies rose around £500k between 2022 and 2023 - ok, they are a larger business with greater AUM following aquisitions, makes sense. 2024 this is forecast to grow another £600k, slightly above revenue growth - suggesting there is no/negative margin made on this business? Cannot be right?

Can anyone help explain, or point me to where I can understand what is going on with the financials?

I understand they get c0.5% management charge on funds managed(?), so revenue is relatively easy to forecast should they hit growth targets, but expenses are all over the place - how can you therefore try to forecast profitability, and ultimately value?

In my opinion, right is right.

Once again - the net cash position has grown $1.2m in the month of August, during which the company spent c$2.5m drilling an additional horizontal well to increase production.

The decline rate on the first horizontal well has not been too dramatic, the second horizontal slightly higher. The 3rd horizontal has been drilled with AICD technology to control watercut - we wait and see what effect that has. We have 2 data points already for expected decline rates, so can make an educated guess about whether they 'dive' or gradually decline over time.

All in all, the company is on track to have doubled production year or year and is now managing to increase cash in bank whilst spending considerable capex to keep proudction increasing.

Trade it, short it, whatever. I will continue to hold and watch the balance sheet grow.

The company anticipated increasing water cut after initial flow rates - this is why they drilled/converted dedicated water disposal wells.

The first horizontal cost $2.45m net to Arrow and they are getting more efficient at drilling and cheaper we are told.

1) These results contain only a couple of weeks production from the 1st horizontal well.

2) Production is currently double what it was at end of June (due to additional horizontals).

3 Net cash is up $1.2m from end June to 1 August - despite continuing drilling expenditure.

Cash will be increasing much faster now with production ip double from Q2 - and Q2 contained 250 boepd of unprofitable Canadian gas that is now shut in - so in fact total profitable oil production is now over double the Q2 average.

You are Mr Right

Let's hope MA doesn't do something similar and sell us out for cheap before value is realised!

There was certainly the opportunity there whilst the warrant sellers/fears, Canacol offloading and water ingress fears held the sp in place..

In short, they have provided Q2 production figures early, instead of letting us wait for another couple of months as per prior years..

The halfyear report will be a financial report. This 6 monthly updated was a production only update. They normally haven't bothered to do a 6 monthly production update, so we had to wait until the HY financial report in Sept to find out the Q2 production figures ordinarily. This is actually an increase/improvement in reporting...

Welcome to the 'club' - suggest you top-up quick as this is only going one way imo :)