Member Info for KingSuarez

I do and I don't know wtf is going on, but my instinct is I don't like it! Thankfully a small holding so I'll just ride and see what happens..

There's a plant expansion to pay for, which will (more than) double existing production - THEN they can pay a dividend, and a much bigger one at that. Patience.

Nope..

This is all ascertainable from the quarterly finacial results:

Been checking out the financials and how royalty rates and taxes change with the oil price...

1) Arrow pay a base royalty of 8% currently, on production up to to 5k bopd.

2) Every 1k bopd increase in production increases this by 0.1%

3) ANH payment - this is a 'high price participation (HPP)' fee, which is charged above some historical average oil price (AI reckons currently @c$47/bbl) - Arrow are charged a royalty of 30% of the difference between Brent and this c$47/bbl average

4) Arrow would also be subject to a 15% corp tax surcharge increasing from 35% to 50% due to the high oil price.

What this means is that at current $108 Brent:

1) Base royalty = $7.6/bbl

2) HPP surcharge = $18.3/bbl ($108 - $47) x 30%

3) Opex/bbl = we have to guess - somewhere between the previous cheap $6/bbl and the inflated costs from Q3 due to water cut at @12/bbl - say $9?

4) Then we have the transport/quality discount - typically about $13.5/bbl

Netback around $60/bbl = around $9.5m a month pre corporation tax?

Glad you can see the funny side because this mornings price action is complete madness imo.

And then, in 24 months, when they have upgraded the plant again to 2-2.5x the current capacity you can double those numbers (or more) once more and you have a p/e ratio of about 2 with a mine life of decades..

If you want profits take off a little interest (c$5m), depreciation (c$15m-$20m) and admin costs (c$6m-7m), then deduct 20% corp tax on the net, so maybe down to c$125m post-tax profit.

For H1 2025, ALTN recorded $44m EBITDA on 25,081 oz of gold produced at a price of $3,099/oz. Meaning they made an EBITDA margin of $1,754/oz at that gold price - AISC c$1,350/oz.

Gold is now over $5,100 so if you assume AISC has perhaps risen to $1,500-1,600, let's assume a $3,500 margin currently. On the 2026 targetted production mid point of 53.5k oz then EBITDA is currently running at $187m.

They do typically like a Thursday for news releases..

$400k AUD min spend - less $220k AUD from the grant = $180k AUD

$180k AUD = £90k GBP

New interview:

hTtps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=57HVt832NiU

Bought a few this morning on the news..

What chance for them to buy out the other 49% in future do you think?

AISC should include any royalties/mining taxes, but not income/corporation tax. They might build a mine if the resource gets expanded towards 1m oz (but that'd be a good expense to have?). Still will need a processing plant or some kind though?

I am invested here, so not looking to de-ramp, but it's not all 'free money' in the ground.

What sort of timescale do we envisage to first production? Wonder how they will go about financing?

The cost to build a mine and processing plant to extract the gold? The tax on profits to be paid?

It's already a very big discovery with the minerals in the current JORC! Market doesn't seem to value it right now though... tiddlers with zero JORC resource valued higher, even though we're in a relatively safe jurisdiction. Strange..

I see - thanks!

People will buy and sell bitcoin (and other crypto currencies) whether the price of them goes up or down, as such TAP will continue to earn trading revenues whatever direction crpyto goes in. This is not a 'bitcoin treasury' company that holds bitcoin and therefore the value should not be directly correlated to crpyto prices, but to cryto transaction volumes/value.

I think I recall from the AGM I asked about hedging and other strategies and they couldn't hedge as they sell directly to the government?

Sorry, ignore me. I see it is in the other RNS...

"Despite beats vs. guidance, the forward outlook spooked the Board: 2026 production forecast slashed to 12,000–15,000 bopd (down from 20-21k guided for 2025) due to no new wells until mid-2026 at earliest."

Where is this guidance coming from?