Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Apparently, US has warned Israel to expect an attack from Iran within 24-48 hours. It has taken Netanyahu some time but it looks as if he is going to get his wish. I think my US$150 oil price prediction looks possible from here. FOMO Friday is upon us.
Building for the next leg up, 23.35p equivalent in the UK.
These guys get top oil price paid and are on $55 per barrel net backs.
15 wells and including the big hitters horizontal
Could do with a nice RNS informing everybody that the horizontal drill has started. AXL you owe us that after last weeks shocker!
Bridgedogg1,
1) You are missing the fact that cash is set to increase dramatically throughout the year due to production rising (from the upcoming horizontal drilling in particular).
2) Comparing AXL and I3E is comparing apples and oranges. One is 99% oil with high netbacks/bbl and the other is predominantly gas and NGLS with lower netbacks and a different fiscal jurisdiction (tax, royalties etc), so of course if you make a simplistic comparison of total boe production it won't make sense. Also I3E have debt and AXL are in a net cash position (I hold both shares btw).
IJWT:
1) 3k bopd does not netback $4.5 a month, because you are only quoting the field netback. There is then admin and some taxation (potentially) to come off that before you get to bottom line after tax cash flow
2) MA said in a recent interview we're doing around $2.8m cash flow per month
3) Don't forget part of AXL production is gas in Canada, which is at best break even currently due to poor AECO gas price
My memory indicates 3k bopd nets back to around $4.5m monthly. Recall netbacks being c.$50 per barrel.
So 10k bopd is $175m p.a. setback, FCF which even on a stingy multiple of 3x is way above current MCAP.
3k bopd netback of $4.5m per month is $54m p.a. so the MCAP is around 1.5x FCF on a backward looking basis which is pretty poor.
Also…
Target 10kbopd in 3 years, mcap £62m
I3e currently produces 21kbood, mcap £140m
On that basis this doesn’t look over valued. Is it just the higher net backs, I haven’t checked but assume they are higher?
Genuine questions from potential investor
I’m confused, he said there’s $12m in the bank, $2.5m generates monthly and the total cost for the drilling campaign is $45m which is funded from cash and cash flow? Seems well short? What am I missing?
I've taken a 'placeholder' few shares here for first time yesterday.
Rocky Ride mentioned this as one he fancied over on the Save.l board and so I've been glancing in on this BB in March and doing a tiny bit of research here too .. I might do some more decent research into this thru April and might then grow out a semi decent holding here off the back..
Good luck to all fellow axl.l holders !
Yep I added 100k yesterday in total
Investors at the recent presentation will be looking to buy in at these levels
Rediculas pullback we have lost 300bopd due to work being done to prepare for the horizontals. Once the work is completed the oil will come back on. Complete and utter overreaction. At least another 10 wells to come this year all fully funded and no need to raise any money. Great buying opportunity.
Surprisingly excessive kneejerk to reassessed short-term constraints. The pullback may come to an end in quick time as drifting stock is being taken up without fuss.
My only concern had been absence of adequate programming for returning high water cuts to basement, but the matter is being addressed. Initial horizontal plan is to test very modest lengths in highly porous sandstone. A great deal will be learnt from the first result, and those that follow will be suitably redesigned.
Those who have studied literature on the Bakken and Missi will be aware that high pressure w/cs from the Andes watershed are essential.
This retracement looks like a buying opportunity if you have the cash. Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil facilities are becoming more desperate as it continues to lose the war: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Ukrainian-Drones-Hit-Russias-Third-Largest-Oil-Refinery.html
Separately, Israel is doing its best to start a war with Iran (with US help), as it continues the Gaza Genocide. That has to push the oil price up: https://english.almanar.com.lb/2077374
20% haircut for a no debt, self funding development program for the year ahead is shocker. The Obaque 13api was already known and announced previously. C7 is the light oil that seems to extend across the entire region.
OK, noted . . .
They're already selling the 'worthless' Ubaque 13 API oil at a slight discount to the other lighter oil - not an issue!
Https://wiki.anton-paar.com/us-en/crude-oil/#:~:text=Light%20crude%20oil%3A%20API%20gravity%20higher%20than%2031.1,gravity%20below%2010%20%C2%B0API%20%28higher%20than%201000%20kg%2Fm%C2%B3%29
Point taken @ 12:24 - 13% API is a material fact negatively influencing an investment decision. It rubbishes what MA has stated and should be corrected immediately if unsubstantiated.
i hate this childish playground b/s "don't pump a stock on my board, or.. or.. .i'l come and poo poo your stock on your board.. .oooooh" ******* hell guys..
My alternative agenda is clear, when you start to promote other stocks on another BB be careful what you wish for.
You may well have an alternative agenda with AXL - as you had at one point with PTAL - but it would be smarter to stick to facts:
https://www.ogj.com/drilling-production/production-operations/article/14188757/arrow-restarts-well-at-tapir-block-llanos-basin
On the other hand AXL's progress really captured UK investors' attention creating a bubble. Unsurprisingly some have engaged their brain function realising the bounty will not come overnight. Perhaps a temporary pullback is par for the course.
[My information is the Llanos does not contain Canadian-type tar sands so you may want to correct your "13%". Otherwise I hastily withdraw my own comment.]
13 percent API is worth nothing its like bitumen
. . . looking for sub26p. Unlikely.
Real upside here. As Marshall notes much is dependent on element of luck. And some of these payzones promise a great deal. The neighbours will be suitably impressed. Next couple of years could be spectacular.
Look at PTAL, a much better option, 20k bopd and free cash flow this year of around $300 million and a dividend of around 12% ..
Must admit I am surprised that they are working to 6000bopd by the end of 2024. They are currently producing 3200bopd and yet with minimum 3 horizontals, 10 normal well and 2 exploratory wells they are only expecting 2800 extra a day. That would be an average of only 233bopd from the 12 new well. Considering they are expecting at least 1000bopd from the horizontals then I do not get it. I am all for understating and overachieving but that seems like totally ridiculous numbers. I will be mightily surprised if by the end of the year we are not at 8000bopd.