fall today.. but if it can consolidate around 24-25p then that's still fine by me .. the fall to under 20p was not a minor one.. so to break well out that spiral was helpful for morale..... well mine, anyway.. I'm staying long for the journey for a good portion of my bet here.. but always like to do a bit of range trading alongside too.. so have sold a bit north of 25p too towards again locking in another small profit.. etc.. but hopefully the main prize awaits the patient and makes my small profit taking look sad/wasteful
Good to hear from you here Snaffleman. Trafigura first liked it at 4p - from memory- and then added again at sub 2p .. so plenty of upside here before getting to their low - versus other II's and many Pi's too - average even.
I too am conscious of a market correction soon .. but who knows really.. and with the news that could come here even in thru the next 6 weeks I've stayed long and strong my full bet here, so far at least ( I've a low average here thankfully ..so even if this were to come off a chunk via a market sell off I wouldn't be too pained )
From AK's comments and other 'expert' views here it is clear that an acquisition or two may easily occur here in the coming months.. and it could even be significant sized acquisition(s) too.. or just small/medium additional - gas for eg - resources a possibility too, of course.. whatever, I hugely hope the market likes whichever deal(s) might occur ...it may do....or it may not do.
The seven energy acquisition looked excellent on paper and has delivered well/to plan early in; and the market has, altogether, hated it so far.. any rinse and repeat exercise has no guarantees of a different outcome, indeed logically one could easily expect a similar outcome.... but the s/p is extremely low now, in fairness and the acquisition opportunities perhaps more financially compelling again now too, and economies of scale potentially a bigger factor again too.
Whatever, AK will do what he will do .. so here's very much hoping for a different outcome from similar behaviour next time round, IF there is another acquisition(s).. nothing is guaranteed in life of course and these are the games we play.
Thanks for the feedback Agadem and I agree that at some some stage some news will push this s/p meaningfully up.
The latest two catalysts I was hoping would push this s/p back to the teens pence - strong interim results and II presentation roadshow off the back of interim results - have now passed and have seemingly failed - badly - to do so, alas. So, here's hoping the next news here does push this s/p meaningfully up.. and if no, the next news after that does .. and if no.. etc.. A good thing is that there should be a reasonable amount of news event(s) - potential catalysts- happening here in coming months. Another good thing is that, versus fundamentals, this s/p appears to be a nonsense currently.
Here's very much hoping that patience will be rewarded here in the end.
Generally, I notice that lack of TR1's more and more interzone - i hold a bunch of oilers for my sins and there are a plenty of II selling down on plenty of them :-) - and am wondering if there are circumstances - such as in a slow sell down exercise... in line with max per cent of daily volume for eg - where they are now allowed wait til finished the exercise in total before declaring
thanks for pointing out interzone.. some of the 'top holder' data is way out of date I now see.. and other potential anomalies are apparent off the back/too .. I posted ahead of looking at the detail much at all, apols.. and not sure I should have posted the link at all now.. some info can still be gleaned, seemingly.. but indeed be very careful on any possible conclusions drawn !
Good weekend to all
nice to see today.. 2p ahead of farm out announcement was what I was looking for and we're nearly there.. anywhere north of 3p immediately after announcement would be ok by me.. i'd be - pleasantly -surprised by more than 4p
Welcome back John Law. John of the deep pockets Law's perhaps .. and after your first buy back in trade you've decided to keep buying back for the rest of the day too ? If yes, please keep up the good work !
Ps: Meant to say: Mr B, The save .l 'major shareholders' page says - on top - that it was last updated 26th Aug.... so what I posted seems more up to date ( fair play for looking to figure this out and sourcing that data as you did.. it was only on the ppc board here on LSE share chat that I became aware of that specific FT analysis more generally, in fairness.. thanks lumphammer btw)
35m ish shares more bought than sold from II's in that 3 month window indeed longshorttrade .. and looking at the s/p chart - i use the nice charts/tools on save.l own website btw- the s/p range between those dates was approx 7.5p to 10.5p .. but the s/p has come off plenty since that data cut off of beg Oct .. so there could easily be more II selling than buying in last two weeks I'd offer.. obviously PI buys and sells and small player II buys and sells not accounted for in that data and that could skew any guesstimates plenty...
If Fidelity were for eg the company AK was talking about that were in process of selling out for green credential reasons, they're now gone for at least a couple of weeks.. but there are a number of II's buying and a number of II's selling recently... and this has also been the case all year I'd expect (as I've alluded to previously)
Scroll down a bit to 'Institutional Investors' and particularly click on 'movers' tab to the right of 'top holders' (note it's for the 3 months of this July/Aug/Sept)
And knock yourselves out !
There seems to be a huge amount of 'additional' stuff potentially going on in parallel the background here - marginal field for development bidding, producing asset for 'distressed' sale bidding, (and not just gas related but oil too in both cases, perhaps/I guess) Niger asset funding/progression sorting out - and then, on top, hopefully progressing on our large existing Nigeria assets too eg new customer(s), infrastructure enhancement etc - and the more of this I hear mention, the more it doesn't surprise - at all - that II money has been watching/waiting more than buying in the open market here.
Also, with potentially more and more moving parts, how the whole thing plays out in terms of s/p movements becomes harder and harder to even have a 'stab' - guess - at, for me at least.
Here's very much hoping AK's HUGE VISION(S) work out well across the piece is most all I've got to offer, in truth (Random path theory and luck comes to mind too though :-))
Two reasonable posts there imho SuperRoty..but if they get a positive outcome from this drill that's likely a game changer, so hanging in for the drill results will appeal to many, whatever.. also some will get in run up to results just for the punt of it, even if there is still a chance of a raise in between them getting in and the actual results... and such a raise then is only a guess by you too, of course..
After a little reflection, I'm neither impressed nor unimpressed by this RNS ...a raise instead of a loan has its advantages too of course.. and getting away such a size raise is a reasonable feat in itself..
much appreciated zengas.. and exceptionally knowledgeable / good answer imho.. indeed most everything you post here is exceptionally knowledgeable /good, in fairness... if there is justice you should do very well in this game.. but plenty of randomness seems omnipresent in this game.. TXP finding big again and again was far from guaranteed beforehand for eg..