I don't see it that way : firstly, they've given a 'downside' price that -if good - quantifies the risk in that direction (something I try to keep in mind as an investor); secondly, they've put a number on the upside PROVIDING various things happen : that gives us a roadmap / checklist and timeframe for us to compare plan with 'actual'.
Apart from anything else, the second is useful in managing expectations and addressing the 'are we there yet' mindset that we all (well, I certainly ! and 'er indoors definitely) occasionally succumb to.....
…"So why are you posting again, trying to sell 'fear' about this share and O&G generally?..."
I think you've been distracted by a personality clash and aren't aware of some recent high-quality postings elsewhere from dspp that address the specific dilemma that HUR faces on the route to monetisation in the context of a general challenge to hydrocarbons posed by accelerating adoption of renewables.
That's almost certainly what SIPPn00b was alluding to.
FWLIW, I'm not a poker player, but didn't think bluster and threats (whether of the Cool Hand Luke variety or otherwise) were considered 'good form'. Maybe you should step out, clear your head, read the articles and reconsider your position....
…." The next few months of production performance from Lancaster will be very important to proving the play and Hurricane will hold a follow-up CMD in January next year to discuss this and the understanding of the 3 GWA well results..."
taken from Hannam & Partners research note.
H+ P provide research paid for by HUR and it seems unlikely they would post 'new news' - month-specific - without a 'steer' from the Co.
Admittedly, 'deniable' if it didn't work out for some reason, but still....
Time will tell !
Ashcroft was one of George Bush's attorney generals, he's since set up a spin/lobby/PR / lipstick applicator co...and just won C-B as a customer :
"The law firm of former US attorney general John Ashcroft has picked up a one-year $900K contract from the Republic of the Congo, a nation that scores low marks from global corruption watchdog, Transparency International.
Congo scored a 19 on a scale from zero (very corrupt) to 100 (very clean) in TI’s 2018 rankings. It is perceived as the 165th most corrupt nation of the 180 analyzed by TI in 2018
TI believes the government of Denis Sassou Nguesso, who has been in power since 1997, played a part in the March 8, 2018 break-in and vandalization of its Congo office. Computers and storage devices were stolen.
The Ashcroft Law Firm will represent Congo before Congress and federal agencies and do media outreach designed to win support of thought leaders, think tanks and NGOs.
Michael Sullivan, former director of the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, and Kim West, who did a five-year stint as trial attorney at the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia, where she successfully prosecuted Radovan Karadzic for genocide of more than 7,000 Bosnian Muslims, are working Congo for Ashcroft."
C-B seems to want to be considered in Chinese ? Emirati ? French ? Russian ? US ? sphere of influence.....
If you look at the list of major shareholders :
Key Shareholders Percentage shareholding (%)
Africa Oil 18.09%
CIBC Asset Mgt 10.72%
Cannacord Genuity 9.57%
Hargreaves Lansdown Asset Mgt 4.51%
Trent Ltd 4.18%
Eco (Atlantic) Oil & Gas Director & Related Holdings 3.89%
Azinam Ltd 3.18%
GMP Securities 3.12%
TD Waterhouse Canada 3.02%
you see that Africa Oil, Eco mgmnt and Azinam (connected) account for some 25.2% (likely no coincidence) of ECO's shares, with more friendly holdings likely under the 3% disclosure level.
Allied to this the track record of delivery to date and the known interested parties, with read-across (QP and Total) and it seems unlikely that a low ball offer would prevail.
I don't subscribe to the imminent collapse of oil demand school of thought, but there's no denying there are headwinds.
The trick will probably be to extract quickly and aggressively (check !) and then - as we near depletion in Guyana - benefit from relatively low extraction costs (check !) in a depleting supply / stranded assets-because-uneconomic environment (check ! check!).
Probably good for 30 or 40 years...…coincidentally....
Slightly off-piste (ie not directly Zanaga-related), but Africa Intelligence reports that the Russians (TMK) are moving ahead with their pipeline for oil products between Pointe Noire and Brazzaville, to be fed by their newly-acquired interest in Marine XII.
..."SNPC has been working on keeping strong ties with Lukoil, which is expected to invest heavily in Congo-B over the coming years from its purchase of New Age's 25% share in the Marine XII permit operated by ENI..."
Every little helps.
Maybe the Chinese didn't bid because only part of Simandou was on offer ? So they're in the running....
Note too that the shortlist is now Aussie Fortescue and local/Singaporean SMB-Winning, with Vale having purchased tender docs but not bid.
So maybe Vale is also in the frame ? Per Wikipedia, its iron ore mines are all in Brazil, post tailings issues it may be interested in diversifying geographically ? Usefully," it also owns/operates nine hydroelectricity plants, and a large network of railroads, ships, and ports used to transport its products."
OTOH, maybe GLEN wouldn't fancy a tie-up.
Very interesting indeed. To get a flavour of the man (cf. Sun Tzu ), see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-iL78Ij4HRo and read a recent speech on the future of the North Sea....
Yes, a somewhat different tone, methinks......as to 'managing expectations', I think I lost count of the number of times the verb 'expect' was used !
Good to see the s/p back up after the initial knee-jerk reaction (emphasis on 'jerk').
Fair enough, if EVERYTHING goes according to (historically frequently-delayed) plan.... and there is no acceleration in costs e.g. as the heavyweight lawyers/consultants come into play in final terms negotiations.
AIUI, if converted, it would be at the higher of 5.2p or a 30% discount to the 60 day VWAP......which may explain the current s/p.
More to the point, simply converting the loan(s), apart from dilutive, doesn't address the ongoing need for cash to keep the lights on, whilst we await developments.
Thanks for this article.
Pretty ironic, actually, to think that Guyana might be dependent on - and be welcoming - USA Inc (local representative Exxon) to protect it from alleged Russian machinations : the Americans were concerned since the mid 50's at the potential rise of Communism in their backyard and keen (acting through their British poodle) to suppress anything they perceived as a threat - the so-called 'domino theory'.
From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cheddi_Jagan (Jagan was leader of Guyana independence movement and latterly PM)
…"Jagan won elections in 1953. However, Winston Churchill was alarmed by fears that Jagan was a Marxist-Leninist, and was convinced Jagan could allow the Soviet Union a foothold in Latin America. In fact, there is no evidence whatsoever that Jagan had any ties to any foreign communist or revolutionary groups. But still, the fears prompted a British military intervention only days after his victory. Jagan resigned as Chief Minister after 133 days. Britain suspended the constitution and installed an interim government. Jagan's movements were restricted to Georgetown from 1954 to 1957..."
In terms of relevance to us/ECO, I don't think that the Guyanese will want to push too hard against Exxon (and by extension other oilco's) in view of (a) past history and (b) present realpolitik.
Pretty much as expected : the can is being kicked down the road, but seemingly less far each time - we're told to expect further progress within 3 months.
Zanaga isn't necessarily the 'anchor tenant' that you want/need to underpin a shopping mall, but it's pretty close : with the potential (reportedly) to add 30% to GDP, it is pretty key to making commercial sense of all the infrastructure development under discussion.
I can't see the Chinese waiting to port completion before looking for/locking in customers, they're going to want to pursue a multi-track approach, getting all the pieces (port, power, rail, customers) under way and insofar as possible synchronised.
The question as ever is : who/whom ? Who's going to make the first move and signal interest in doing a deal, as signalling might be construed as a weak opening position ?
It seems that - with Zanaga's resource (scale and quality) - it has a strong hand, but at the end of the day, it still needs the infrastructure more than the infrastructure needs it. We have one objective/criterion for 'success', the Chinese have several.
I really don't want to pursue this much but ECO's assets are in the hottest postcode on the planet (currently), with lots of sausage and even more sizzle, whilst JOG's are in a ho-hum , high cost environment with H + S issues . I paraphrase.
So again, from a farm-out / monetisation perspective, apples vs oranges.
Weren't you Papal Power in a former life ?