The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from WS Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
Hi Jiving,
Thanks for adding a third scenario - some specific 'meat' to the rather general bone that I tossed out !
I wonder whether there's any 'right of first refusal/right of last refusal' in the Collahuasi J/V agreement ? That would put a pretty big spanner in the works for anyone wanting the jewel in AAL's crown...and IF GLEN could exercise, GLEN would itself in turn become even more of a target for 'strategic investors' in a copper-hungry world...
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/copper-demand-boom-new-technology-drives-power-consumption-trafigura-says-2024-04-22/
Everybody looks at renewables and EV's, but the power-hungry beasts, apparently, are the AI-related data-centres...
GLA and ATB
The BHP/AAL tussle could find imitators/competitors as the industry consolidates and is sometimes a sign of a 'top' in a sector - aka 'go mining on Wall Street' - you can buy production in a couple of years, whereas a mine can take decades.
I don't follow GLEN closely enough to know whether it is seriously interested in competing for AAL (or just wants to push BHP into paying more) and it seems to be a moot point whether it could actually afford to : it's pretty tied up at the moment with the 'bundling and unbundling' of Teck.
There also seems to be some suggestion that Ivan (at 9+%, GLEN's largest shareholder, just ahead of Qatar) may not be fully behind the 'coal repositioning' strategy ('coking yes/thermal no' , AIUI), which is -or may be- another wrinkle...
If GLEN did want to mount a bid, it could bolster its finances with an outright sale of its ZIOC stake.....OTOH, if it found itself on the RECEIVING end of a bid, it could be expected to point to its 'hidden value' in Zioc (and presumably others)...
who knows how this will ultimately play out?
Which only reinforces my contention that nothing we say on these boards ultimately matters, but perhaps how we conduct ourselves does.
GLA
Hi all,
My overall approach to investment can be summarised in the following :
(1)The Tenth Man Rule - Principle Explained - Insight Before Action
insightbeforeaction.com/the-tenth-man-rule-principle-explained/
."The 10th Man discipline is one in which the group designates at least one individual to act as a loyal dissenter. “Loyal” because their ultimate goal is to make the best option for the company. And, as the dissenter, they not only have the right but also the obligation to disagree and “poke holes” in the group’s assumptions..."
(2) https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1939/08/the-indispensable-opposition/653471/
.."“The opposition is indispensable. A good statesman, like any other sensible human being, always learns more from his opponents than from his fervent supporters. For his supporters will push him to disaster unless his opponents show him where the dangers are. So if he is wise he will often pray to be delivered from his friends, because they will ruin him. But, though it hurts, he ought also to pray never to be left without opponents; for they keep him on the path of reason and good sense.”
(3) If folk read something they don't like/welcome/agree with, they're welcome to refute (and we can have a civilized debate) or ignore...or put me on filter.
I myself generally don't put people on filter, because of (2) above, unless they're particularly vexatious.
(4) Re ZIOC specifically, the idea that anything said on a BB may influence the eventual outcome is , frankly, laughable. Some people - 'no names, no pack-drill' - are full of themselves.
We are an irrelevance...and have been for some time, as the absence of corporate 'smooching' shows. Short-term manipulation of the share price may be a factor for a company where takeout is linked - however remotely - to the prevailing share price (' the price offered for XYZ represents a ..%age premium to the prevailing/preceding /whatever share price'') but that isn't the case here. We're surely past the stage where 'pumping ' the share-price short-term to get a placing away might be a possibility. If anything, management is showing what can charitably be described as 'benign neglect'
(5) Over-arching : 'Life is too short to be small'.
There are probably others, but that's enough for now.
GLA and ATB
"So extrader is out then. Fair enough. Everyone has to make their own move.."
Sorry to say Vet 10, that you've made an assumption (I'm not sure on what basis)...and you know what they say about 'assume'.....
For the avoidance of doubt, I have a larger investment in ZIOC (both absolute and as a %age of my portfolio) now than I've ever had in the 6+ years that I've held.
It would be interesting if you were to ask the same question of some of the more 'vocal' commentators around...and (of course) got equally honest answers.
I'll leave it at that.
ATB
.."Reality is though there has been progress. They have a 1m EUR bank loan over 15 years at 3.5%. Thats significant.."
Reality is, they have a loan agreement and they expect to be able to access proceeds 'during mid-June'. Given the historically casual observance of deadlines and timeframes (Piraeus was announced 4 months ago - and assumed by you as 'imminent'), the Euro loan isn't 'significant' until HELD actually has the money in its hot little hands...and we discover what , if any, wrinkles it contains or strings are attached.
I would suggest.
GLA
Au contraire.
The encouraging last para reads :
.."Despite the current economic crisis, building the two dams mentioned above is a necessity if Congo really wants to diversify its economy, notably through industrialization within the SEZs. This will, however, require the mobilization of funding, particularly from financial partners such as the World Bank and the ADB...
It's a rare, but welcome admission that C-B needs international (not just Chinese) finance, even if it comes with strings and oversight.
If Washington is indeed in a 'hearts and minds' battle with China for influence in Africa (see Kenya Pres Ruto's upcoming visit to the US), this - or other investment - would be a good way to proceed.
www.barrons.com/news/biden-to-host-kenya-s-ruto-for-state-visit-in-may-white-h…
"US President Joe Biden will host his Kenyan counterpart William Ruto on May 23 for a state visit aimed at boosting ties with a key East African ally, the White House said Friday. Ruto, who will be accompanied by his wife Rachel, will be the first African leader to receive a state visit at the White House since Biden took office in 2021."
He'll also get to address Congress, on the 2 countries' 60th anniversary (coincidentally, like China / C-B).
Maybe too little , too late for Biden/the US, but shows that they're aware that they're losing ground.
.."I look forward to bringing them up with Elphick and Knauth..."
I've no feel for Knauth, but Elphick strikes me as a straight shooter who will, if anything, be embarrassed by this.
Hence my concluding observation
" And unfortunate timing, to say the least."
Thanks for Eddsy for highlighting the key phrase :
.."The FCA noted that Shard Capital contacted the regulator about the matter last year after discovering the existence of several documents “as a result of evidence disclosed by another party in court proceedings.."
So something that Shard's internal controls should have picked up in December 2019 (did they or didn't they ? - either way, not a good look - and what about those dealings from 2015-2017?) is made public (ie readily discoverable by the authorities) and Shard (aware of the original enquiry re 2015-2017) then contacts said authorities .
I believe that that's usually described as asking for 'other offences to be taken into consideration." aka 'managing reputational risk'.
The FCA then agrees a discount on the fine and chalks up a (for it, rare) win.
Misleading the auditors AND misleading the customers? Where does that leave Internal Audit and the Relationship Manager(s) throughout these events?
I no longer subscribe, but fully expect this to be covered in Private Eye ('In the City') at some point.
HTH
PS and from the original article, it appears there were other (later than 2019) irregularities...
.."In addition, between June and July 2021, he provided misleading information to a further client purporting that Shard held substantial sums on its behalf. However, that client’s entire cash balance had previously been transferred out of its account..."
Misleading the auditors AND misleading the customers? Where does that leave Internal Audit and the Relationship Manager(s) throughout these events?
Hmm.
Thanks for highlighting the key phrase :
.."The FCA noted that Shard Capital contacted the regulator about the matter last year after discovering the existence of several documents “as a result of evidence disclosed by another party in court proceedings.."
So something that Shard's internal controls should have picked up in December 2019 (did they or didn't they ? - either way, not a good look - and what about those dealings from 2015-2017?) is made public (ie readily discoverable by the authorities) and Shard (aware of the original enquiry re 2015-2017) then contacts said authorities .
I believe that that's usually described as asking for 'other offences to be taken into consideration."
The FCA then agrees a discount on the fine and chalks up a (for it, rare) win.
I no longer subscribe, but expect this to be covered in Private Eye at some point.
HTH
PS Lewis committed his offences in 2015-17 and was a repeat offender as recently as 2021.
The FCA - not Shard- did any 'house-cleaning' that was done, AFAICS.
'Fundamentally complicit' doesn't just refer to the FCA , on the face of it.
Hence my concluding remark 'I'm sure Shard are right when they say they're glad it's over'.
I call it as I see it.
ATB
Hi Eddsy
Thanks for asking!
C-B doesn't have any stadia that meet FIFA requirements, so will have to travel to their opponents' countries to play their qualifiers for World Cup 2026.
I don't follow the beautiful game that closely, but even I'm aware that having to play away is usually considered a disadvantage.
No doubt you'll be able to put a positive spin on this, as you do on most things.
ATB
Https://www.financialreporter.co.uk/fca-bans-and-fines-investment-firm-ceo-120300.html
.."Former CEO of Shard Capital Partners, James Lewis, has been fined £120,300 and banned by the FCA following two separate instances of providing incorrect information about clients’ cash.
The FCA found that between June 2015 and May 2017, Lewis told auditors that Shard held hundreds of millions in cash for a particular client. In fact, these sums were debts owed by another client in the same group.
In addition, between June and July 2021, he provided misleading information to a further client purporting that Shard held substantial sums on its behalf. However, that client’s entire cash balance had previously been transferred out of its account.
In each instance, the FCA says Lewis knew the information he provided would be used to produce the clients’ annual accounts and, as a result, those accounts were misstated.
Lewis agreed to settle the matter and qualified for a 30% reduction discount on the initial fine of £171,900.
Steve Smart, joint executive director of enforcement and market oversight at the FCA, said: "Mr Lewis fell woefully short of the high standards of skill, care and integrity we expect of all those who lead financial firms. Investors depend on accurate information, and Mr Lewis’ actions put investors at significant risk of losses. It is right that he won’t be allowed to work in regulated financial services again."
A spokesperson for Shard Capital commented: “We welcome the completion of the investigation into James Lewis, which we have been supporting throughout. As highlighted in the FCA’s final notice, Mr. Lewis has not held a senior management function at Shard Capital for over two years.”
Not a good look, IMO, as this was in the public domain.
And unfortunate timing, to say the least.
I'm sure Shard are right when they say they're glad it's over.
Ho hum.
Oops!
.."FCA bans Lars Windhorst’s long-time broker James Lewis Founder of Shard Capital provided incorrect information about clients’ cash balances.."
This has been around for a while, publicity right now is hardly helpful, though : it's not as though the FCA makes many headlines for DOING anything...
;-
Elon must have seen this...
Ashmore latest
.."Argentina: The Economic Ministry is discussing a new programme with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), laying out its new monetary and exchange rate plans.
Minister Luis Caputo expects inflation to slow again in May.
The Lower House approved the first chapter of President Milei’s new omnibus bill that expands his executive power over administrative, financial, economic and energy matters for one year.
This includes dissolving special purpose government funds and privatising companies.
These measures have now moved to discussion in the Senate."
GLA
These people seem to be up and running, with an export market in Israel and otherwise EU compliant :
https://ohridorganics.com/news/
One of 60 licensed entities in North Macedonia, AIUI, some of which may also have progressed to production.
There's a UK connection...to hydrogen....
https://fuelcellsworks.com/news/hydrogen-utopia-international-plc-hui-to-acquire-49-of-ohrid-organics/
2 x pipedreams, perhaps ?
GLA
Hi Rider75,
You're right, I think somewhere Chris spoke of the benefits of having extra funds to deploy, either on 'larger' cases or on cases with a favourable risk:reward profile. Maybe somewhat higher risk, but materially higher upside, so a 'sexier' element of the portfolio.
ATB
Https://www.arabnews.com/node/2504926/business-economy
RIYADH: Brazil’s biofuel market is set for substantial growth as UAE’s Mubadala Capital has committed to invest $13.5 billion over the next decade.
......
Oscar Fahlgren, head of Brazil strategy at the sovereign wealth fund, disclosed the budget for the initiative during an interview with the Financial Times. He divulged the details of the fund’s plans to produce renewable diesel and sustainable aviation kerosene primarily utilizing non-food plant matter.
.......
“It’s all about feedstock (which) in reality is agriculture. And Brazil is probably the best-placed country on the planet when it comes to agricultural proficiency because of the climate and the fertile soil,” said Fahlgren, adding, “Brazil is to agriculture what Abu Dhabi is to oil.”
.......
“It’s a very important capital project,” Fahlgren said. “I see tremendous opportunity to invest in the green energy transition space in Brazil,” he added.
.......
Mubadala’s venture into bioenergy will leverage its existing $6 billion investments in the country...
All grist to the investment mill...
GLA
Seb's latest, overnight :
.".Bainbridge Fund wants Judge Preska to compel Argentina to transfer the ownership of all YPF shares expropriated by the Republic in 2012. Bainbridge is one of multiple holdouts with favorable judgment that haven’t yet received payment. Bainbridge is also trying to attach Central Bank assets..."
This tweet already appears to have received 101.6K views...!
A few analysts/investors ....and maybe a lot of Argentinians?
Hmmm...