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Hat -tip to Mirabeau for this :
"...Wading ‘In Play’ In Overseas Waters
Today I am going international with a feature on an undervalued group with a London and a Bermudian quote – Ocean Wilsons Holdings (LON:OCN).
On the face of it I believe that the shares of this £472m capitalised group are trading well below their value at the current 1335p – yes unusually for me a heavier market capitalisation with a very heavy share price – but it looks cheap to me, which readers will identify in due course.
With results due within the next month, it is expected to report a 10% uplift in 2023 revenues to £372m, with a 178% better profit of £84m.
For this year that could rise by another 10% in turnover to £411m, with a 27% increase in pre-tax profits £107m.
The Business
The company’s principal activities are the management of a diverse global investment portfolio and the provision of maritime and logistics services in Brazil.
In outlining its Purpose and Strategy the company robustly states that its objective is, through its investments, to create long-term capital growth without pressure to produce short-term results at the expense of long-term value creation.
It operates through two primary investments – Ocean Wilsons (Investments), an actively managed investment fund, and Wilson Sons, a Brazilian maritime services company.
The maritime services segment provides towage and ship agency, port terminals, offshore, logistics and shipyard services in Brazil.
The investment segment holds a diverse global portfolio of international investments with an investment strategy of a balanced thematic portfolio of funds and is a Bermuda based company.
Ocean Wilsons (Investments) Limited
The investment strategy for its managed portfolio is to generate real returns through long-term capital growth, whilst emphasising preservation of capital without respect to short-term moves in equity markets.
Its investment portfolio is invested in both publicly quoted and unquoted assets in diversified components.
Working alongside expert managers in specialised sectors or markets allows it to have access to the best opportunities to achieve its strategy.
This longer-term view directs an OWIL investment strategy that its investments are made in a balanced thematic portfolio of funds which leverage long-standing relationships.
Wilson Sons SA
Wilson Sons is one of the largest providers of maritime services in Brazil with activities including towage, container terminals, offshore oil and gas support services, small vessel construction, logistics and ship agency.
The Wilson Sons strategy is to grow the business on the basis of its skills and existing assets, strengthening the businesses and looking for new opportunities in the maritime and transport sector, focusing on Brazil and Latin America.
It looks to develop its businesses by maximising economies of scale and efficiency and improving the quality and range of servi
.."- forecasters estimate that 7% of Germany electricity would need to be dedicated/diverted to 'clean' hydrogen production...so (ironically), the target of ending (dirty) coal for electricity is quietly being pushed back from 2030 to 2038..."
Re this bit, here's a true story, from my then neighbour an electrical engineer in Spain :
(1)Spain was keen to leap onto the solar energy bandwagon, thanks to its intrinsic (sunshine ) advantages over the main purchaser of solar panels at the time, usually overcast but trying to go green Germany.
(2)It had to offer generous electricity tariffs to pay the premia needed to get hold of some of said scarce solar panels.
(3) Its generous tariffs were duly successful in getting a lot of plant installed.
(4) Everything went swimmingly for a while and Spain could tout its increasingly green credentials and tell the local consumers how much of their electricity was the 'good' stuff.
(5) After a while, some accountant noticed a curious thing : there were at first a few, then steadily more solar farms producing electricity after dark....
On investigation, it was discovered that folk were using diesel generators to shine arc lights onto the panels at night - the input cost of diesel, even allowing for efficiency loss (energy value input vs energy value output), being lower than the inflated sales price of the electricity produced.
This was such a political scandal that the Government of the day not only felt forced to slash the subsidies, it took the remarkable (maybe unprecedented ?) step in a democracy of BACK-DATING the revision...
"España es diferente"
Quite a lot of investors lost their shirts as the 'subsidy harvesters' came unstuck and went bankrupt.
A further twist : Those that didn't go bankrupt- the bigger users, who'd 'gone solar' to reap the subsidies AND power in-house their existing businesses - didn't escape altogether : the Government then decided to charge them the IMPUTED cost of not using the electricity network as envisioned.
Mind you, we shouldn't talk - we've got Drax.
;-<
GLA
GLA.
Long article in today's FT
..."How Germany’s steelmakers plan to go green
Europe’s biggest producer is moving away from carbon-intensive blast furnaces and towards hydrogen-powered processing..."
The gist :
- steel production is 7% of global CO2 emissions, 25% of Germany's;
- carbon credit offset (currently free/subsidized) will be phased out, therefore production > more expensive;
- historically, BFO was most popular route (1,400 units worldwide), because coal was a cheaper input than the electricity needed for EAF , feedstock scrap iron;
- solution ? switch to DRI, using sustainable hydrogen. Ta - dah !
- problem (for Germany) - how to produce H cheaply and at scale - so far unresolved;
- side-comment : DRI works with blue/grey hudrogen (ex natural gas) as well as 'green ' hydrogen (ex renewables), that's why most existing DRI plants (2022) are in gas-rich countries :
mtpa : India 40, Iran 35, Russia 8, Saudi 7, Egypt 6 , Mexico 5, US 5, Qatar 2, Trinidad 2.
[Ed.: India / Iran lead the pack because they have an historic local industrial base/demand; note all these DRI users total barely 110 mtpa];
- for Germany, there's an issue over availability/cost of its 'mandated/proposed' green hydrogen : Thyssen Krupp points out that its tender for 143K tonnes hydrogen feedstock alone would = 15% of all planned H production by 2030, which itself needs 500 x wind turbines;
- current H production (2022) meets only 2% of Europe's energy consumption....and 96% of that 2% is blue/grey ie from natural gas.....;-<
- forecasters estimate that 7% of Germany electricity would need to be dedicated/diverted to hydrogen production...so (ironically), the target of ending (dirty) coal for electricity is quietly being pushed back from 2030 to 2038...
- Germany's under more pressure to resolve this quandary , because it (still) has a sizeable manufacturing base (20% of economy), vs barely 10% in e.g. US, France or the UK [Ed.: we've offshored to China, so we have offshored this particular problem, but face the same self-inflicted immiseration in the long run, IMO...;-< ;
- article concludes that the solution (for Germany and maybe others in the Western consuming nations) is tariff barriers to make ITS steel still commercially viable. 'Going green' is desirable, the problem is 'how to get from here to there' ?
The article is specifically about Germany's problems and a (possible) solution for Germany, but it throws useful light/info on issues facing others.
The biggest unaddressed elephant in the room is the emergence of a 'cleaner, greener, objectively cheaper' solution elsewhere (mainly in the M East).
A second unaddressed elephant in the room is that wherever DRI is seen as the solution, the other key feedstock that will AIUI improve metrics (cost/quality/price premium/emissions) is iron ore....
GLA and ATB
Long article in today's FT
..."How Germany’s steelmakers plan to go green
Europe’s biggest producer is moving away from carbon-intensive blast furnaces and towards hydrogen-powered processing..."
The gist :
- steel production is 7% of global CO2 emissions, 25% of Germany's;
- carbon credit offset (currently free/subsidized) will be phased out, therefore production > more expensive;
- historically, BFO was most popular route (1,400 units worldwide), because coal was a cheaper input than the electricity needed for EAF , feedstock scrap iron;
- solution ? switch to DRI, using sustainable hydrogen. Ta - dah !
- problem (for Germany) - how to produce H cheaply and at scale - so far unresolved;
- side-comment : DRI works with blue/grey hudrogen (ex natural gas) as well as 'green ' hydrogen (ex renewables), that's why most existing DRI plants (2022) are in gas-rich countries :
mtpa : India 40, Iran 35, Russia 8, Saudi 7, Egypt 6 , Mexico 5, US 5, Qatar 2, Trinidad 2.
[Ed.: India / Iran lead the pack because they have an historic local industrial base/demand; note all these DRI users total barely 110 mtpa];
- for Germany, there's an issue over availability/cost of its 'mandated/proposed' green hydrogen : Thyssen Krupp points out that its tender for 143K tonnes hydrogen feedstock alone would = 15% of all planned H production by 2030, which itself needs 500 x wind turbines;
- current H production (2022) meets only 2% of Europe's energy consumption....and 96% of that 2% is blue/grey ie from natural gas.....;-<
- forecasters estimate that 7% of Germany electricity would need to be dedicated/diverted to hydrogen production...so (ironically), the target of ending (dirty) coal for electricity is quietly being pushed back from 2030 to 2038...
- Germany's under more pressure to resolve this quandary , because it (still) has a sizeable manufacturing base (20% of economy), vs barely 10% in e.g. US, France or the UK [Ed.: we've offshored to China, so we have offshored this particular problem, but face the same self-inflicted immiseration in the long run, IMO...;-< ;
- article concludes that the solution (for Germany and maybe others in the Western consuming nations) is tariff barriers to make ITS steel still commercially viable. 'Going green' is desirable, the problem is 'how to get from here to there' ?
The article is specifically about Germany's problems and a (possible) solution for Germany, but it throws useful light/info on issues facing others.
The biggest unaddressed elephant in the room is the emergence of a 'cleaner, greener, objectively cheaper' solution elsewhere (mainly in the M East).
A second unaddressed elephant in the room is that wherever DRI is seen as the solution, the other key feedstock that will AIUI improve metrics (cost/quality/price premium/emissions) is iron ore....
GLA and ATB
(1) There appears to have been some kind of breakdown in comms surrounding Big Den's recent (result-light) visit to the UAE, suggesting that the visit may not have gone totally to plan. Senior heads have rolled as a result.
Per Brazzanews :
.." diplomatic sleuths do not hesitate to speak of a dysfunction within the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Presidency of the Republic and the Ministry of International Cooperation and promoting Public-Private Partnership. What's more, a lack of communication and sharing of information, particularly between four key figures, Bienvenu Okiemy, Françoise Joly, Denis Christel Sassou and Jean-Claude Gakosso, respectively diplomatic advisor to the President of the Republic, advisor and personal representative of the President of the Republic for international affairs, minister of international cooperation and the promotion of public-private partnership, and finally minister of Foreign Affairs, Francophonie and Congolese Abroad. According to some, "no form of coherent communication seems to exist and each of them acts more or less autonomously." #Chezmoiaucongo
2 x senior diplomats have reportedly been sacked (perhaps by 'the Chief' - Big Den) and Min of Foreign Affairs is rumoured to be in the line of fire....
(2) Meanwhile, Little Den trumpets this recent visit, by a party led by the Vice-Governor (CCP representative) of Jiangsu province, as part of his promotion of inward investments.
May mean nothing, but Jiangsu province is home to China's biggest private sector steel group, Shagang Group, with a $ 47 Bn turnover.
Things usually happen when inclination coincides with opportunity. As ever with ZIOC, it's hard to figure out how far down the road we are....
GLA
From today's Brazzanews, unusually detailed/pointed criticism , starting with 'big picture' stuff :
https://twitter.com/brazzanews/status/1760242981825573127
.."The fiasco of President Denis Sassou Nguesso's last trip to the United Arab Emirates, the silence of parliament and the two-speed justice system on the inextricable situations experienced by the Congolese speaks volumes. The Congolese waited in vain for their head of state's trip to the United Arab Emirates to benefit from an exhaustive report. The national media in particular, the written press and online channels have remained silent. They did not echo any agreement whatsoever. The president's bag came back empty, one must believe.
A 7-day stay without convincing results from the point of view of the profits that the Congolese can draw from it suggests that it was for a check-up and secret financial transactions that Mr. Sassou went to Abu Dhabi, like this is done often. The unease is still palpable. The clan no longer knows which way to turn. ..."
then on to various bits of local malfeasance/poor governance.
(Mind you, folks overseas probably say much the same about the UK, these days ;-
Well....
- it's interesting to me that despite a 17% shareholding AND offtake arrangement, GLEN's stake in HZM doesn't appear to figure in its Resources statement, discussed a few days back
https://www.glencore.com/.rest/api/v1/documents/static/a53e27b1-6025-4ef2-9be8-f3be543dfb26/GLENCORE-Resources-and-Reserves-report-2023.pdf
where there was discussion about the significance (if any) of the earlier comment
'Glencore is no longer an active participant in the previously-disclosed Zanaga project'...
It would seem that GLEN can be actively involved in a project under development and not feel obliged to disclose it, AFAICS.
So, why the change , for Zanaga, now?
HTH
MBS and MBZ may (or may not) get along locally, but they (and other Gulf SWFs) can clearly co-operate when it suits....
https://www.breakingtravelnews.com/news/article/abu-dhabi-sovereign-wealth-fund-in-talks-for-heathrow-airport-stake-alongsi/
.."Reports suggest that the Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund is considering an investment in London’s Heathrow Airport, potentially joining forces with Saudi and Qatari investors.
The potential deal, as reported by Bloomberg, could see the UAE’s Mubadala Investment Company partnering with Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund and Qatar’s Investment Authority to acquire stakes in the West London Hub..."
GLA
Meawhile, this development elsewhere may be something of a negative for GLEN's interest (or otherwise) in being involved with a greenfield project .
"Glencore-backed nickel miner Horizonte issues finance warning"
I don't follow HZM, but there seems to have been a serious blow-out on project development costs (doubling to $ 1 Bn) and first production - already postponed to Q3 2024 - has now been pushed back to Q 1 2026.
"The mismanaged budgeting is a blow to Glencore, which holds 17.7 per cent of the company’s shares and is entitled to future supply from the mine for 10 years."
It's not clear from the article what the causes of the delay/over-runs are, hopefully there's no read-across to ZIOC's greenfield site.
If the ultimate cause of the go-slow is prospective over-supply of nickel, the same cannot be said AFAICS for 'green ore',
quite 'au contraire' in fact.
GLA
Meawhile, this development elsewhere may be something of a negative for GLEN's interest (or otherwise) in being involved with a greenfield project .
"Glencore-backed nickel miner Horizonte issues finance warning"
I don't follow HZM, but there seems to have been a serious blow-out on project development costs (doubling to $ 1 Bn) and first production - already postponed to Q3 2024 - has now been pushed back to Q 1 2026.
"The mismanaged budgeting is a blow to Glencore, which holds 17.7 per cent of the company’s shares and is entitled to future supply from the mine for 10 years."
It's not clear from the article what the causes of the delay/over-runs are, hopefully there's no read-across to ZIOC's greenfield site.
If the ultimate cause of the go-slow is prospective over-supply of nickel, the same cannot be said AFAICS for 'green ore',
quite 'au contraire' in fact.
GLA
.."detractors ( TW, EX,TA,L, etc etc) which have contributed..."
Can't speak for anyone else you've mentioned, but I fail to see how my pointing out discrepancies, inconsistencies, falsehoods or implications of things SYME/AZ has done, said or RNS'd is a 'contribution' to the present situation people find themselves in.
GLA
From today's FT
‘Strings attached’: Saudi Arabia steps up demands in tech deals with China"
..... There is a hidden motivation for the increased investment relationship between China and Saudi Arabia,” said Chris Vassallo, a researcher at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis. “The kingdom is maybe sitting on a large pile of renminbi from selling oil to China, the uses of which are not manifold. One way is to spend on Chinese goods and services.”
'Every little helps'.
GLA
From today's FT
‘Strings attached’: Saudi Arabia steps up demands in tech deals with China"
..... There is a hidden motivation for the increased investment relationship between China and Saudi Arabia,” said Chris Vassallo, a researcher at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis. “The kingdom is maybe sitting on a large pile of renminbi from selling oil to China, the uses of which are not manifold. One way is to spend on Chinese goods and services.”
'Every little helps'.
GLA
Ashmore on Argentina
"Argentina: The Treasury reached an ARS 2trn primary surplus in January, the first monthly surplus excluding interest payments since 2011, a sign that the country is moving forward with its aggressive fiscal consolidation despite political challenges. Argentinian Eurobonds rallied last week after reports that Milei was considering breaking down the omnibus bill into several “digestible” bits and deepen its alliance with Macri’s Juntos por Cambio, a pragmatic turn. CPI inflation increased to 254% yoy in January, from 211% in December, slightly less than expected. In mom terms, CPI inflation fell from 25.5% to 20.6%."
GLA
.."Its AZ and some investors investing €1.5 million so the Stock Company can buy the inventory..."
It may be semantics, but surely its more a case of AZ and some investors putting up a security margin to encourage the lender to provide finance so the Stock Company can buy the inventory...?
Priming the pump, to coin a phrase.
AFAICS
Let's see if history rhymes.
Remember this article ?
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214790X22001113
"The South–South investment that never happened: Vale in Guinea"
.."In Agnelli's strive to convince shareholders about the importance of investing in Africa, President Lula (2003–2010) turned out to be an unexpected ally for the pursuit and operationalization of Vale's ambitions. The Brazilian President not only supported Agnelli's international aspirations, but he also put the state apparatus at Vale's service. “Everyone was mesmerized with the velocity with which Brazil expanded its outreach in the region where Vale planned to expand its business”, according to a source.9 Along with the wave of new cooperation projects in Mozambique, discussed in greater detail in other articles of this special issue, the Brazilian government also announced the opening of a network of embassies in West Africa, from Guinea to Liberia and Sierra Leone, countries where Vale would need strong diplomatic support from Brasília. In the process, Lula and Agnelli forged a personal relationship based on a shared vision of Brazil as a global player and on their complementary personalities. Agnelli's personal yet aggressive negotiating style paired well with Lula's union leader skills based on dialog and concertation. Inside Vale, the symbiosis between Agnelli and Lula created the impression that the company's fate was tied to that of the Brazilian foreign policy..."
Tick tock.
Big Den and Lula go back a long way.
Asperbras Angola was allegedly the source of a lot of the Lula presidential campaign advertising money. After his election victory, Brazil rescheduled/forgave a chunk of C-B's trade debt (some $ 280m?) within the IMF Paris Club commercial debts restructuring.
It's easy to be generous with 'other people's money'!
Ho hum.
Of only tangential interest here, BUR's largest (10.5%) shareholder, Saudi's entrepreneurial Mithaq Capital has just swooped on a distressed US retail company :
hxxps://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/children-s-place-s-stock-pops-21-after-investor-group-takes-majority-stake/ar-BB1ijZ9S
Market comment highlights aggressive, contrarian and opportunistic approach to business.
Mithaq is the family investment co of the principal shareholders of AlRajhi Bank, the largest Islamic bank in the world by capital and one of the largest joint stock co's in Saudi Arabia.
GLA
And, from your first link :
Total - 1002 Mt @ 66.63% Fe, 1.21% Al2O3, 2.32% SiO2,1.17% LOI, 0.030% P
Mbalam Nabeba
- Silica 4.4% vs. ZIOC 3.5>3.0% Simandou 2.32%
- Alumina 2.6% vs. ZIOC 0.8 > 0.4% Simandou 1.21%
- Phos 0.09% vs. ZIOC 0.04% Simandou 0.03%
ZIOC better than Simandou on alumina, not so on silica, AFAICS.
Is one (low impurity level) more attractive than the other ?
From your link, Zanaga gets the barest of mentions, under 'Other' p32-33.
After running through various 'contenders/outliers' in Brazil, Canada and Australia, we see, right at conclusion:
..."In Africa, Glencore owns 50%100 of the Zanaga Iron Ore Project in Congo-Brazzaville,
and proposes to mine up to 30Mtpa of 66% Fe hematite and 68.5% magnetite...."
taken from the Zioc Mar 2019 Investor Presentation.
The authors seem to share the Wood Mackenzie blind spot re Africa...
WM are the people, remember, more confident re Mbalam-Nabeba than re ZIOC . And yet, there we see
Mbalam-Nabeba isn't even close.
Not only half (maybe less) of ZIOC volume, but also lower quality - 62.6% Fe (cf ZIOC Stage 1 66% > Stage2 68.5%) with LOTS of impurities (see p.13 of the recent presentation):
- Silica 4.4%, ZIOC 3.5>3.0%
- Alumina 2.6%, ZIOC 0.8 > 0.4%
- Phos 0.09% , ZIOC 0.04%
Maybe the penny will drop before long...
GLA and ATB