Member Info for SQ320

This is his linkedin profile:

https://www.linkedin.com/in/wilson-falco-makembe-80256b176/

He seems a legit source. Assuming that it's not someone pretending to be him (unlikely, because that Twitter account has been posting for a while and he'd have caught onto an imposter by now).

Wilson Makembe

"However, once the pipeline construction starts, so could CH-1 drilling, it doesn't need to wait until the pipeline is finished, that is absurd as far as risk aversion goes."

Once the Tanz start construction of the pipeline you'd expect that they have every incentive to finish it asap and get revenues flowing - not least to recover the investment in the pipeline. I am with you on that.

On the other hand I would not put it past TPDC to delay commissioning the pipeline for some reason or another.

"It's very odd that rig activities won't start until after the pipeline is built, why are ARA waiting that long when they can drill CH-1 earlier and have it ready to connect to the gas pipeline soon after NT-2 has commissioned, tested and optimised the pipeline? Very odd."

Because it would change the dynamic for ongoing negotiations. They would have made a substantial commitment whose value they could only recover if the project proceeds. At the moment both sides seem to be making only incremental commitments.

Since the market cap is £120m, I'd have thought that even after a massive haircut the number would still be 'meaningful'. More than that, i.e. writing it off would still be meaningful, surely?

Given how long the negotiations have taken, the additional management/employee time and expense and the continued material uncertainty would it be fair to describe the price as a pittance?

Whenever I beat myself up about misreading TPDC, I think about those rusty pipes.

Surely a CH-1 drill in 2026 is looking more and more likely? Say a contract for the pipeline is awarded in April. It will take time to gear up. Construction may hit delays. Then there is time for commissioning and testing the pipeline. We could be talking end of 2025 for flowing gas. On the other hand it does not make much sense for a wellhead to be sitting around for about a year.

If an RNS is released next week, the issue is with a false market in AEX shares and those at the conference being able to trade the news (or lack of it) at the expense of those who are not there.

Wasn't there something about a tender for a catering contract recently? It seemed as if was for the pipeline workers.

Sambo the info is not about aminex plc, it's a subsidiary company

D'oh. It's Aminex Petroleum Services. Lol.

We used to. It was in a nice part of London. If you took along your share cert they'd let you use a spare desk for free.

Happy Days.

Thanks for that clarification. Since that's the case, an obvious stumbling block does not exist.

One of the challenges facing the Tanzanians is that ARA will expected to be paid in US$. Local consumers of course will be paying in Shillings.

This won't be the first time an African country that has an abundance of HC riches finds itself with a foreign exchange problem as a result of exploiting these.

The potential solutions could be exporting some of the Ruvuma gas or ARA accepting some payments in shillings and so on.

Tanz it was a good post but it has an error, which I think is at the heart of the pickle we are in. She says that the development licence was awarded in Sept. That's not correct. it was awarded in May. The ceremony was in Sept.

Someone went to some effort to bring in the great and the good and to have them put their names to the project. Lots of nice quotes too - but none from TPDC.

And that's the problem. For whatever reason TPDC are dragging their heels and ARA are using every trick in the book - to make sure they do what they say they will.

Glass half full - the size of this project means that TPDC want to be careful and they know whatever they agree to now will have consequences for how the project develops. I would not be surprised if what is holding us back are plans for 2026/2027 etc.

And there's a pipeline from Madimba to Kinyerezi

When it was last at 20p the investment thesis was entirely different. It may as well have been a different company.

"Kiliwani North and Kiliwani South - Kiliwani North Development Licence (KNDL)

We have recently had positive discussions with the TPDC and other Tanzanian government authorities on how best to proceed to ensure investment and gas production from this block. These discussions have, among other things, focused on the importance of revenue generation from Ntorya/the Ruvuma PSA."

Why are the KNs being linked with Ntorya?

Hi up/down. We know that apykegs energy services were active on the ground a few weeks ago and doing the numbers for e.g. road building. Could it be that the outcome of their work is now with the paper-pushers?