Member Info for SQ320

CP. After being in purdah for several years the company are now actively playing the PR game. In those terms if they want to maximise interest in the CH1 drill they would release the CPR before it takes place.

What's the link to the new group?

Surely there's quite some (positive) newsflow expected before any drill, within the next 4 weeks.

You'd expect the PR company to be lining up media interviews with BoD while they are in London for the AGM and for them to have new news for those ...

Seems a risk free basis for holding.

When things are done and when they are completed/signed off can be a moveable feast whose date can coincide with the major players' chess moves vis-a-vis each other.

I'd draw everyone's attention to the resuits of the seismic which fortuitously were released on the same date as the news of the delay to the pipeline.

" It occurred to me at the time that the real reason behind the meeting was for the TPDC to provide a status report on the PIpeline but also on the License position."

Worth noting that the License is for 25 years. In that time they are likely looking at various development options, issues around what happens if CH1 finds oil etc.

I don't think this was as operational a set of meetings as much as government ministers of the two countries making various commitments (albeit in private). Pure speculation on my part, but when the Energy Minister goes to Muscat I doubt his amour propre will be satisfied meeting just some managers.

You could call it a 'nice problem', having a resource of the possible that is being stated will slow things down. No one wants to get it wrong.

A visit to Oman also means that the Tanzanians can meet Omani government officials and royal family. A signing could well have the latter present.

The PR company would get an earful from PIs if this were a rumour! Putting out Tweets on the same day strongly suggested that something had happened.

In answer to the last point - AEX have previous received loans from ARA and the possibility exists that this will happen again. For a long time now AEX's fate has rested on the value it has to ARA and as long as that value value exists - they'll keep it alive.

There's never been any value imputed for condensate for AEX valuations, so even if TPDC keep all of it - won't make any difference. But condensate that TZ is not producing is income foregone to them - makes any delay even more crazy.

Given the size of what is at stake you can imagine that the negotiations over every per cent between 15 and 20 are going to be protracted.

This may sound weird, but In some respects negotations for a smaller resource would likely have been concluded more quickly and be less complicated overall.

CP the seismic result showed how massive this could be. What that also means is that AEX free carry will only take them so far. More money will be needed for subsequent stages.

So this is how i see this playing out. We get the dev licence and the share price spikes off the back of PI carpet bagging.

At some point the company tells us of their subsequent drill plans and obvs the need for finance to do so. It will be at that point that the IIs will come l and will make some easy money as the SP gets closer to 10p.

As I have said for many months it is the ability of AEX to raise money via equity sales that makes this vehicle attractive to ARA.

JP I entirely agree with this line of argument.

News that ARA released is now percolating through Tanzanian media, but it could become a double edged sword for the current government.

If they are seen to have been sitting on their hands while the locals could have seen improved living standards, it won't do them much good in the polls and an asset will become a gift to the opposition.

On the other hand if there can be some tangible benefits before election day and promises of more to come - re-election becomes much easier.

CP you don't think that this: "Contingent Resources will be matured to Reserves upon formal development approval", will have any impact?

The last RNS does not make any reference to 'imminent' or even 'due course'. So I am not holding my breath. Will add as people get bored though.

If and when the development licence does come through I am expecting the price to exceed 2p, so that Santos gets his payday. Plenty of fireworks compared to the past several years.

RoJo the Tanzanian national elections in 2025 are going to concentrate minds at the very top.

I've just taken a screensht of RoJo's post and the one immediately after.

This does make some sense and it also puts into context the statement in the last RNS that the company were speaking with the Tanzanians about speeding up the pipeline.

Since words alone won't get it built, presumably they're negotiating about some tangible input.

Vike, I was under the impression hat a reputable outfit like RPS would complete its work when it was scheduled to and not have any delays, unlike everything else around here. But I guess they've 'gone native'.

StockCheque, the tantalising hint tht the LNG may be exported is the RNS reference to AEX being paid in shillings or dollars. I'd always taken for granted it would be shillings. Paying in $ would create FX problems for Tanzania, unless it was $ from exports.

This was in the Telegram group earlier today:

Natural gas to reach all Tanzanians

By Ismaily Kawambwa, ZanzibarJanuary 10, 2024



UNGUJA, Zanzibar: Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Energy, Dr. Biteko has said that the strategy of the Ministry of Energy is to ensure that it properly administers the Energy Policy of 2015 and to ensure that there is access to clean energy that will reach various customers with ease and price cheap.

He said that the goal of the country is to have energy that comes from various sources including the Sun, Wind, Gas and Water so that the existing Natural Gas can also be used to a large extent in other areas such as industries and homes instead of being used in large quantities in electricity and also to reduce consumption of oil.

Dr. Biteko has explained the strategies today in West District A, West Urban Region at the signing ceremony of the contract for natural gas to be produced in Ntorya area, Ruvuma block, between the Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation (TPDC), the company ARA Petroleum of Oman and Ivory Resources of England.

He has explained that, in the Ruvuma block, the gas discovered and verified is 1.6 billion cubic feet. The signed project will be the first to be carried out in the country and will make it possible to reduce the thirst of Tanzanians to use natural gas even in areas that are far from pipeline infrastructure and thus stimulate the use of clean energy in the country.

The agreement also involved establishing relations to build natural gas infrastructure signed between TPDC and KS Energy Company, also establishing relations to build infrastructure to distribute Natural Gas with small infrastructure technology to convert Natural Gas into liquid (Mini-LNG)

"Our strategy is to change this issue of Natural Gas to be used more in electricity which is about 80 percent, we want to have a mixed energy in the country so that gas can be used in factories and homes and also reduce the dependence on oil." Said Dr. Biteko

He added that, TPDC now has a strategy that will allow for the distribution of the use of Natural Gas where the use of electricity will be 38 percent, in homes and industries will be 32 percent and 10 percent will remain in homes unlike the current situation where the use of Gas in industries and homes is 28 percent and the remaining percentage largely goes to electricity.



He has said that the Government is ready to cooperate with those investors in order to bring reliable energy to the people from various sources while citing the example of the implementation of the 50 megawatt solar project in Kishapu district, Shinyanga Region and the construction of other production, transportation and electricity distribution projects.



The ceremony of signing the agreement was also attended by Mtwara Regional Members of Parliament, the Representative of the Secretary General of the Ministry of Energy Mohamed Fakihi, the Chairm

Is the lack of excitement because of the reference to 1.6 tcf? Had been hoping for more, or perhaps it's just the old figure?