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Here's the tweet
https://twitter.com/sadaatumar/status/1487028330759180296
I am seeing a few 'professional' traders getting in at current prices and broadcasting it on twitter. Would not be surprised if they help get the message out to others in due course - which is when the herd will arrive.
No doubt the traders will start selling into those rallies having 2x or 3x (+) their money.
malcy used to be promoting AEX, now he's bigging up WEN. I wonder if he feels that owning WEN is very likely to give access to the 25% of Ntorya as well as proven management, production etc.
It does not stack up because the software that tells you whether something is a buy or sell, is just making a guess, based on the price paid, it can be wrong!
I think the spread was quite narrow today times and that could explain it.
The spread just reflects the fact that it is thinly traded. As volume picks up it will reduce.
Then again anyone buying at these prices and at this point in the story is unlikely to be the sort of person interested in a 10-20% gain.
In much the same way when Santos agreed to the 3m options at 0.6p he didn't have in mind the idea of flipping them for a penny something.
Yes, I must say that I am stunned. There seems to be considerable selling and then a buy pops up at 26p (which was yesterday's close). How it managed 26p yesterday was a surprise.
I don't mind it grinding up like this (rather than shooting up), since it may avoid a chartist coming along later saying that a 'gap needs to be filled' i.e. going back down again and rebuilding the rise.
You can make one using Lego:
https://youtu.be/xwyZendaF0o
On Thursday I think someone got wind of an RNS and started buying, not realising it was just for options.
OTOH I have noticed how Directors tend to award themselves options around the bottom of any share price. So I'd see it as a bullish signal.
For the sake of argument lets say someone expects this to reach the dizzying heights of 8p. Buying at 0.8p gives you a 10 bag, buying at 1.6p gives you a 5 bag, to get to the same 10 bag you have to hold out for 16p.
OK simplistic I know, but it explains why fear-of-missing-out early on in the rise can be get people to jump on off the back of no news.
We' ve had similar volume 3 days in the last 6 months ... but another couple of hours of trading to go. Related question, the RNS referred suspending drilling for the rainy season.
Here's the weather outlook for Ruvuma, does not look very rainy to me. Unless it really tips down when it does rain.
https://www.accuweather.com/en/tz/songea/314458/march-weather/314458?year=2022
The game being played over at SAVE is to buy majors' interests in O&G assets that are being disposed of cheaply. Is there not a case for AEX being a vehicle for ARA to raise cash and play a similar game in East Africa?
In previous AEX statements I found the reference to finding other assets laughable, but there could be an opportunity here.
Thanks Ufufuo, that's really helpful. It's quite easy to think of ways how vested interests will ensure they get a good chunk of that 31.7p, but it would be a shame if we are denied even a few multi-bagging crumbs from here.
18th August AEX said tha they had "mean risked recoverable gas resource of 1,990 Bcf".
Assuming (!) that's the case and say it's valued at $3 tcf, that gets you US$3bn.
AEX's share is 25% so $750m.
Say 4bn shares in issue (once options have been granted to directors etc.) that's 18.75p
OK so you'd need to discount future production to the present ... but any other obvious errors?
TIA