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"If it’s true though (as I’m told by Camarco) that II’s only get the same communication as PI’s (and of course I’m not stupid and don’t believe a word of that) then they must have SERIOUS reservations about the pace of progression in SAVE."
A lot of the difference in communication is because of who IIs are.
But some of it is due to answers depending on the quality of questions asked. Sometimes you'll get straight-bat, blank answers to direct questions. But asked in a more roundabout way you can pick up some useful detail.
A good litmus test of whether you've done enough research on a company is whether you take what malcy says at face value.
If you do, whatever it is you are doing, it isn't investing.
"What are your thoughts on timeframes for getting Ruvuma fully up and running?"
If you are referring to the Chikumbi explo/appraisal well, I was hoping for Q1 latest Q2 2021, with the sp rising in anticipation of a good result. Full field development timescales? I don't know. I guess it depends on the initial results.
Thanks for this. It's clearly a good starting point. I guess the main question with using Orca is how justifiable the comparison it. The obvious possible differences are whether the customers (credit worthiness) and fiscal regime for the two will be the same, for example. In addition Orca are simply further along the curve, so you'd expect them to have a somewhat higher valuation.
But what you've arrived at is where AEX could be, once Ruvuma is producing and banking the cash.
Worth remembering (because the RNS said so) that the Zubairs pulled a few strings to get this deal done. Now consider how much they are proposing to invest (and the AEX free carry), and the fact they'd be looking to get multiples of their money back.
Now compare to the AEX market cap, even after the rise.
You are quoting the shares in issue.
Given that Majedie sold last week and the SP barely moved, suggests that there was a buyer lined up, because given the volumes traded for some months now something that size should have trashed the SP.
It could be that they knew no sign-off was coming and they needed a couple of weeks to sort out Plan B.
Alternatively again they know no sign-off is coming, but they just want a face-saving form of words from the government 'cross my heart and hope to die' that there will be a sign-off after the election which will allow them to set a long stop date some time into the new year.
Another possibility is that the Zubairs in a fit of generosity offer to buy out the equity at 1p per share (100%+ premium to the closing price on Friday).
jackpack the timing of the new deadline is a foregone certainty that this is to put max pressure on the Tanz govt.
Too close to the elections and there'd be no time to cause an impact on the result. Too far away and the newscycle would have moved on. The timing is sweet.
But it does not say a lot for the relationship with the Tanz govt though.
Hasn't there also been a material change in the fundamentals though, compared to when we were at 28p?
There is now NO hope of a farm-in for Niger, which would have been a major positive development and likely key shareholders interested for material good news. And any activity on our part in Niger has been pushed back by a year or so.
When we took on the debt, we took several steps back. The fact we are now getting paid only, slowly, brings us a step forward every few months.
If we had been able to acquire new quality customers who would help pay down debt faster, that would be a net positive, but they are taking their time. No doubt because they don't want customers who'll then string them along for payments.
As I see it a buyback allows existing shareholders the chance to sell out without trashing the SP. And as we know there is one (or likely more) large shareholders who want out.
On the other hand, a dividend gives a reason for existing shareholders to stay put and new ones to buy-in (those wanting income).
AK himself says in the last AR that O&G investors are nowadays looking for income.
I can well imagine quite a few callers/emailers to SAVE HQ over the next few weeks/months will be re-directed to what the company have published today.
It's fairly comprehensive, gives a clear rationale as to their intentions and reasons. I am not entirely happy with it, but you can't accuse them of not being transparent.