Member Info for SQ320

SAVE HQ switchboard will be lit up like Christmas tree at 9am.

Zengas, you've had the £2 target for a while now. But now notice (should I have done so earlier?) that it's based on either acquisition or organic.

So if both happen we're looking at £4? ;)

Thanks Zengas.

"As for Savannah Energy, the signing of the new PSC was contingent on a moral, and unwritten, commitment that the 50 million barrels discovered on their permits (R1, R2, R3 and R4) would be brought on stream rapidly. "

Sounds almost as if it has been SAVE that have been dragging their heels. Why would that be?

Trek - the company have made no mention that the publication of the AIM document is contingent on government approval. Given how long we know this can take, it would be a big omission on their part if this were to be the case.

My take has been that publication of the doc is simply internal and procedural. Still Omicron provides a handy excuse to delay matters till 2022, if need be.

The added reassurance here is that rather than some random bank it's an organisation that has political and other connections in the region.

By the same measure, replacing experienced O&G staff is not going to be very straightforward.

I wonder if what is holding back the resolution is not the money itself, but the risk that some employees may up sticks and leave having received the lump sums payments.

"If it’s true though (as I’m told by Camarco) that II’s only get the same communication as PI’s (and of course I’m not stupid and don’t believe a word of that) then they must have SERIOUS reservations about the pace of progression in SAVE."

A lot of the difference in communication is because of who IIs are.

But some of it is due to answers depending on the quality of questions asked. Sometimes you'll get straight-bat, blank answers to direct questions. But asked in a more roundabout way you can pick up some useful detail.

A good litmus test of whether you've done enough research on a company is whether you take what malcy says at face value.

If you do, whatever it is you are doing, it isn't investing.

The daily rise here is far exceeding the % value of any dividend!

Must say that I do hope volumes stay strong for the foreseeable. Serious money needs liquidity.

What e22 has posted is the sum total of what Malcy says.

"What are your thoughts on timeframes for getting Ruvuma fully up and running?"

If you are referring to the Chikumbi explo/appraisal well, I was hoping for Q1 latest Q2 2021, with the sp rising in anticipation of a good result. Full field development timescales? I don't know. I guess it depends on the initial results.

Thanks for this. It's clearly a good starting point. I guess the main question with using Orca is how justifiable the comparison it. The obvious possible differences are whether the customers (credit worthiness) and fiscal regime for the two will be the same, for example. In addition Orca are simply further along the curve, so you'd expect them to have a somewhat higher valuation.

But what you've arrived at is where AEX could be, once Ruvuma is producing and banking the cash.

edgar you've previously mentioned a 7x upside from here, so is the rest based on the possibility of oil?

Worth remembering (because the RNS said so) that the Zubairs pulled a few strings to get this deal done. Now consider how much they are proposing to invest (and the AEX free carry), and the fact they'd be looking to get multiples of their money back.

Now compare to the AEX market cap, even after the rise.

You are quoting the shares in issue.

Given that Majedie sold last week and the SP barely moved, suggests that there was a buyer lined up, because given the volumes traded for some months now something that size should have trashed the SP.

well done e222, you deserve it more than most

It could be that they knew no sign-off was coming and they needed a couple of weeks to sort out Plan B.

Alternatively again they know no sign-off is coming, but they just want a face-saving form of words from the government 'cross my heart and hope to die' that there will be a sign-off after the election which will allow them to set a long stop date some time into the new year.

Another possibility is that the Zubairs in a fit of generosity offer to buy out the equity at 1p per share (100%+ premium to the closing price on Friday).

The nightmare scenario, is the company coming back and saying that they have 'assurances' that the signature is coming and have extended yet again to next year.