Member Info for SQ320

Thanks Ufufuo, that's really helpful. It's quite easy to think of ways how vested interests will ensure they get a good chunk of that 31.7p, but it would be a shame if we are denied even a few multi-bagging crumbs from here.

Out of interest what was his view when SAVE was pootling along below 10p for several months?

In the conference call he said that it's the same team of people who worked on the Exxon deal who are working on the refinancing of the Nigerian assets. So I'd imagine Q1 should see some news on that.

sorry mistyped, tcf above means thousand cubic feet.

18th August AEX said tha they had "mean risked recoverable gas resource of 1,990 Bcf".

Assuming (!) that's the case and say it's valued at $3 tcf, that gets you US$3bn.
AEX's share is 25% so $750m.
Say 4bn shares in issue (once options have been granted to directors etc.) that's 18.75p

OK so you'd need to discount future production to the present ... but any other obvious errors?

TIA

So when the next dilution free acquisition is announced (using the debt they've not used yet) that will be pure upside?

Or have I missed something? Am hoping it happens H1 2022 btw.

They'll have been under pressure from AIM to relist and the excuse that it may not be great for the SP in the shot-term would likely carry little weight.

He's said no more RTOs and no more equity dilution for any purchases that they do make.

Plenty of liquidity. Set a limit if necessary.

D'oh. OK, I get it now.

The pro selling post has 8 likes.

I don't get this. If the deal had been very good for us and likely to propel the SP to 80p would that have encouraged people to stay? I'd have been more likely to sell (sell more) tbh, take money off the table etc.

Between 20p-40p the desire to unload is much less.

The reason it won't 2 bag, is not the ministerial consent. It's the massive share overhang.

What information there is of Niger and the Nigerian gas customers suggests that any news about these won't be happening any time soon.

Almost funny how they say: " The Company intends to publish its AIM admission document (the "Admission Document") on or around 31 December 2021".

Whether being top of that list is a net positive or negative depends on the position of those voting for it and whether they reflect the position of other market participants.

If they are up to their eyeballs in equity and like other holders are really hoping something comes of it - that's not as good as people who have been reading about it and expecting to buy/add in the coming months.

Given its suspension, for the last several months you'd hope that more of SAVEs votes came from the latter.

My suggestion previously was that there may not even be a delay.

My assumption has been that SAVE have been under pressure from AIM to meet certain deadlines.

Surely anyone here who has had a deadline to meet has played the game, where you make a promise for a certain date ask for a little extension and then one after that. This always works better than asking for a long extension from the get-go.

If it was just for the likes of us I think they would have given a date in Jan to begin with and have done with it.

People have previously mentioned that they may be under pressure from AIM to relist. To pacify them they may have given a specific date this side of Xmas and are now adjusting, given the complexity. If they issue another extension tomorrow, it buys them until next Weds or if they really want it untll the 4th Jan.

Another way they could play this is to issue a doc tomorrow, with a relist due next Weds and they buy themselves some time to make any final checks and issue an amendment before trading begins, but that may not look too good.

Anyway, I don' see the 'delay' as a negative.

There's a rich tradition of firms releasing news to the Sunday press that will be RNS'd on Monday. Encore oil used to do it all the time IIRC.

I appreciate that Mulak was only supposed to start in 2022 and 2.5mmscfd, which is about a 1/10 of the Afam deal. At the time Mulak was announced AK did mention they were working on other deals and none has been forthcoming (so far).

On the other hand, I think many of us are happy that they have at least gotten paid for their gas supplies and even recovered older debts and that on its own is worth about 5p. The increase in reserves is another net plus.

The reason I am not sure it will hang around the 20p's is that (personally speaking), I'd be reluctant to let any go, given the potential and at that price, it would likely be a screaming buy for new shareholders (assuming the family jewels have not been passed onto Vitol).

Given the disappointment followingthe last RTO, you may be right. But the rise to 19p was off low volume, so the news unlikely to be already baked in.

Plus we have since had the equivalent of 5p added to the SP for the debt payments made and reserves upgrade. I'm rather hoping for 30-40p off the back of the acquisition.

Movement beyond that likely depends on additional Nigerian gas customers and clearer plans for Niger. This news I'd expect during 2022.