Member Info for SQ320

But Orca's reserves are only 230 bcf

That potential AEX production of 140mmscfd compares to Orca's 61 mmscfd in 2021. Orca has a market cap of £132m.

The EPS was supposed to be a means of generating early cashflow. They seemed to have dropped it without giving much of an explanation. Instead, they have had a placing when it did not seem to be essential.

The two decisions suggest to me that (a) they are confident of success (b) they are so confident that they want to let their mates in on the cheap. IMHO/DYOR etc.

The presentations from a few years ago referred to an early production system. But now there is only talk of production in Q4 24.

Does anyone know why the EPS was canned?

Aimster the PIs who have been buying at current levels would be mad not to take money off the table in any move upwards.

On the other hand, once the full field development plan has been published, it's likely that investors with even deeper pockets could consider AEX as being investable. The upside may be less at that point, but a positive outcome would be more certain.

The origial plan was to drill the C1 well and then follow that up with a further 5 wells.

When they announce the results of C1 could any upside depend on whatever they say their plans/hopes/timings are for the subsequent wells?

At the start of the morning buys were taking place at 0.89 and sells at 0.87. At the end of the day, it was sells at 0.88 and buys at 0.91.
So grinding up.

Not much volume is being reported, but the bid and offer are moving around. I suspect we'll see some large trades reported later today. I suspect there's buying pressure. Might pop this week.

What's the rules on reporting to the market where the operator is a private company registered in a foreign country? Would it be fair to say that they are not bound by the same rules as might be the case if AEX were the operator?

I'm wondering whether the 'someone knows something' scenario is more likely to happen given the above. Not saying that that's the case right now btw.

Jetty you asked who would sell now. There are speculative O&G stocks out there with guaranteed newsflow over the next month.

Some investors may believe they can sell here now, ride those for a few weeks and then come back here. The newsflow there is guaranteed, but of course, it could be negative. So there is that.

BG

I guess if they did that with SCIR's stake once the drill results were 'formally' known, it would be considered sharp practice (screwing WEN basically) and not ideal if you want to invite foreign investors?

But then it begs the question, if they have a good relationship with WEN, why did they not do so earlier and save WEN the hassle.

Perhaps ARA have had a quiet word about the initial/preliminary findings? And while TPDC were willing to let the sale go through a few weeks ago, they have now changed their minds.

Agree with everything you say blackgold.

Losing some of our 25% does not sound great, but I imagine TPDC will only want to back in if there is something worth backing into!

At that point in time AEX should be worth far more than it is now.

I don't doubt the size of the prize.

My cynical view is that PIs rarely get the chance to see such value, when it is anticipated.

As we saw with the last equity raise there are plenty of people who want in (because that's my opinion as to why it took place). And I can well imagine other value extractions by those who are well placed along the way.

I still think we'll do well, mind.

If this ever got to 4p I could retire. Since that sort of thing doesn't happen to me, I 'm not holding my breath.

Talking about the deal, WEN are paying $16m for 25% of Ruvuma. AEX have 50% and the market cap is currently $35m. This means that the value of the carry is not reflected in the share price at all.

gaslady in a recent presentation WEN said that they did not believe that their was oil in Ntorya. The person who said it was Aaron LeBlanc ex-Aminex.

Of course, he could be talking his book, before the acquisition of the SCIR deal concludes.

CP but can't stated strategies change? As and when funds allow the recruitment of relevant staff AEX could become an operator if they wanted to? Alternatively the Zubairs could arrange some kind of tie-up between AEX and WEN.

anyone interested in AEX would need the agreement of ARA, they own 30% and are the operator. They likely consider AEX their 'vehicle' for any future projects.

Phew. Hearing that from one of the grown-ups around here that's reassuring. Thanks.

The Telegram group is really excited about the signing that has taken place between gov.tz, Shell and Equinor.

But what's the read across for AEX? Can it mean higher prices for our gas?