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Hi Stockcheque

In the comments you are referring to, I have ignored AEX as an independent entity. AEX is simply a vehicle for ARA to execute certain aspects of its wider strategy. I am only referring to ARA and TPDC.

Let’s go back to the two issues I referred to in my last post.

The training programme is obviously between ARA and TPDC – nothing to do with AEX at all.

Secondly, my quotation from the Annual Report is preceded by the following text in that report, “the Operator will be in a position during 2024 to” … i.e. it’s not AEX who will be doing the supporting but ARA.

In contrast to Edgar, I still believe it will be more than just giving them high fives.

It’s way too early to say what the economic impact of these developments will be, likely trivial in comparison to whatever the price of gas they have agreed on and how they are divvying up the costs/responsibilities of further developments.

On page 8 of the annual report (29th April) they said, “Support the Tanzanian authorities in the construction of a spur pipeline to take gas from Ntorya to the Madimba Gas Plant and accommodate gas extraction from the field”.

In the RNS of 10th May they had said, “The TPDC is responsible for the Pipeline's construction.”

I don’t know what form that support takes. It could be quite trivial like sending flowers when milestones are reached or it could be quite expensive such as engineers’ consulting time. What are the expectations on each side?

Similarly with the training programme they have tweeted about. That sounds expensive. Are TPDC paying commercial consulting rates or is there a quid pro quo, and what is that?

I am by no means suggesting shenanigans the way stockcheque suggests, but I am saying that notwithstanding the GSA etc. there are invariably details in any deal that are not specified beforehand (often because they were not anticipated) and for which there is a need to discuss as a project progresses.

There's obviously a dance (pigeon steps) being played out between ARA and TPDC. Neither party can be seen to be too 'keen' and going ahead to invest time and money on the asset.

This would skew their negotiating position because then they would have a sunk investment which would make them more wiling to accede to any terms the other party would impose on them.

So it's very much a case of 'you do something for us and we'll do something for you'. Those tweets about land acquisition were a clear signal that ARA are investing in the land, likely because they had something else given in return by TPDC. The same goes for the TPDC training programme.

Over the coming months we'll likely become familiar with aspects of gas extraction the lay people here never knew existed, as each item is haggled over.

Someone buying in £500 blocks and electing to include dealing costs in the £500.

Can you see the order book?

Stock, a placing of 1bln shares at 4p a pop, generates £40m, say US$50m. TPDC and ARA fund the balance and we are good to go. I'd say that ARA have already sounded out HNWIs and family offices in the Gulf.

That sounds about right to me. They all seem quite conservative in everything they do.

Certainly, TPDC management won't win any brownie points from the government by promising big and under-delivering. Might even lose their jobs.

Thanks stockcheque.

For phase two are we talking about 60+140=200 or 60+80=140?

Apparently newsflow is also in the hands of getting permission from the Tanz. If they have people keen to trade AEX - it raises all sorts of (theoretical) possibilities. Not saying for one moment that they'd do anything illegal.

Not sure anyone would want to 'analise' them tbh.

If anyone is still here based on the 1998 investment thesis, they need their head examined.

Given all the news about the macro picture, at what point do people thnk that AEX will reveal new plans for production/distribution?

RoJo the price has indeed fallen betwen last Tuesday and today.

But if you look at traded volumes going back 70 days from today the volume today was at no 63 in terms of size, Friday was 52, Thursday 45, Weds 41 and Tuesday 50.

This would mean that traded volumes have been quite low for the past week. There are sellers but not many. Buyers don't want to keep pushing up the price.

The only downside is that there do not appear to be so many different groups of buyers that when one group take a breather another group steps in.

Still if we have gotten this far off the back of a relatively limited number of buyers, there's lots more action to come when the herd arrives.

Stockcheque do you see an updated broker's report coming out off the back of the release of the CPR? or are they likely to wait until all/some of the drills are done?

"Bit too much selling for my liking..."

Volumes are very low in the scheme of things. Between 10m and 20m was the going rate when it was rising. And on important days its much more than that.

Around 5m for daily vol is piddling.

No it wasn't 'just' $35m of carry and some small change! Yes it was not a great deal that much is true. But we had a very poor hand to play.

Notwithstanding the weakness of the position what we got was a negotiating team the size of which we could only dream of. And we got technical expertise that came with a much much bigger organisation. An organisation that has political clout in Tanzania and is well resourced locally. As they've said recently they've been able to progress multiple workstreams. That was way beyond the capacity of the old Aminex.

You forget the loans that ARA have made while the Tanzanians strung us along and you also forget the previous management who awarded themselves options like it was going out of fashion.

Some gal had the gall to award herself 43m!! And John Bell 65m!!

We could easily have gone the same way as SCIR and WEN.

What would be the costs associated with getting condensate out of the ground and I assume trucking it?

The seismic result report at the end of Feb was quite bullish about the quantity of oil possibly down there. And they seemed to suggest that extraction / sales could be economic. But it would be nice to have some idea of numbers.

Stockcheque

"we shouldn't be begging tipsters to give us a call, they should be knocking our door down to speak to us".

But that's the point! They're not begging. The PR company Tweet says:

"DM us Malcolm and lets talk further in the coming months on Aminex".

If malcy's followers want our sloppy seconds, I am not complaining!

There is a very solid reason why ARA did not buy out AEX for 1p when the sp was 0.6p not so long ago.

It's because they've know the size of the opportunity all along.

And in my opinion they know there is a difference between how far the free carry will take us and what will be needed to fully exploit the entire licence and other opportunities that may arise.

Join the dots.

Just an opinion, but I think they want to drip news.

And certainly they'll want to time good news prior to the AGM. If this hypothesis is correct we should not hear from them this week. But I'd reckon on something towards the end of June and possibly something else mid-June.

Why do I believe they want to drip news? Because they want to build up the investor base. Announcing everything in one go rewards existing shareholders with a massive spike in the SP, but leaves others waiting a long time for the next big thing.

Dripping the news gives a chance for a much larger group of people to make some money and hopefully stick around. It also IMHO allows people close to the company to benefit without being accused of insider trading.