Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Also worth noting that there are plenty of other O&G plays that offer nearer-term upside if they strike lucky with the drill bit or indeed because of better exposure to the oil price.
SAVE could pull a rabbit out of the hat any time between now and June, but that seems to involve a bit more in the way of hope than the 2 price drivers above.
If the company have said that they will drill the first well in Q3, would it be reasonable to expect seismic results by June?
Also the half-yearly statement on 30.9 said that the company committed to acquiring 200mk2 of seismic, but that the tendering had meant that they would actually acquire 338km2.
Would it be reasonable to expect that they may raise GIIP if they are surveying 50%+ more land than they initially said they would?
Back of the envelope (for just one bit of the biz) , we have, say an additional $50 for each barrel to what we were originally expecting ($120-$70). Assuming that goes on from now to June (120 days) and we have 25kbopd, and 1.3bn shares in issue.
So I make it an additional 11p per share we should be getting.
($50*120 days*25000bopd)/1300000000=11p per share
Thanks for that haggis and blackgold.
It seems to me that the 3D seismic is an order of magnitude different in terms of time/complexity for the two different objectives.
For CH1, the location is known, it's a matter of establishing how far they want to go and what they hope to get. On the other hand, the rest of the seismic is about establishing the optimal locations for subsequent drills, which seems much riskier and complex.
WTFDIK, but it would make sense to do the CH1 seismic first and proceed to drill and while doing the rest of the seismic in parallel. Anyone heard from the company about their plans?
Bearing in mind what haggis has said ... let's say they do the CH1 seismic first and start processing/analysing it while the rest of the acreage is seismiced ...
does that mean they can drill CH1 before the full analysis of the rest of the play is done? And if the latter is the case could they also RNS CH1 seismic results in the next few weeks?
Of course, they will provide an update. They can't keep silent forever. My assessment is that the 'sale' RNS won't lead to immediate riches as many are expecting.
It'll be some kind of can-kicking exercise, a curate's egg that maintains hope for somewhat longer.
One possible scenario is that any payments are contingent on future performance, for example. Or some sort of partnership deal that becomes an excuse for more fund-raising.
So a sale in the broadest possible sense of the word.
In the 2020 annual report they said:
In the near-term, it is APT’s aim to shoot a 3D seismic survey over a significant footprint of 454 km2, far in excess of the minimum commitment, during 2021, following in 2022 with the drilling of the Chikumbi-1 appraisal and exploration well.
They are currently going for 338km - anyone know why the decrease?
Also in 2020 they were hoping to shoot the seismic and go for CH1 in 2022. The time scale is now much more compressed, everyone here ok with that?
But they are shooting 338km2 of seismic, that's some area!
There seem to be two different objectives here. The first is to know what is below CH1, surely that does not need all 338km to be mapped? The second is to assess the rest of the land.
So I'd imagine that the information they need to drill the CH1 well, should surely be known in a matter of weeks (rather than months0? The rest of the seismic gathering exercise would surely be to identify subsequent targets.