Member Info for SQ320

Also to remember that the AGM is due in a few weeks and while not substantive news in its own right, it can be the occasion for getting more clarity about interpretations of past successes and forward plans. Given trading volumes over the past several sessions and the likely attraction of new shareholders, I hope the company have some good news timed for the AGM. I assume it will be in London again?

Thanks for that daft. It's near the end of that piece that PW is quoted as referring to the $4 figure. But broker forecasts since then have used $2.65, perhaps if enough people were believing the $4 figure, that may have helped account for some of the share price doldrums when the reality hit? My view is that we may get something between $2.65 and $4, perhaps closer to $2.65, but brokers will be able to present it as an 'upgrade' and could help boost the SP when it hapens.

In a recent presentation the company talk of the deregulation of the Egyptian gas market and the possibility of selling direct to customers. I had thought that this could mean that some of SDXs supply is sold for $2.65 to the state and some of the rest can be sold for whatever SDX can get. A few days ago someone on this board said that the Egyptians are paying $5 for offshore gas so they'd be unlikely to want to pay around that much onshore.

The trick SDX were having to pull off was to sign up customers in Kenitra. OK their gas was cheaper than the bottled variety but customers need surety of supply. To get that surety they need to keep finding gas and lots of it. The problem was that they were just about replacing what they had already produced. This find and the others that may come after it, will seriously add to reserves. It will also help get new customers. This is why this find is so important.

telegraphist the responses to the other Moroccan wells were muted because the actual quantity of gas in each one was relatively small. This opens up a totally new region and it's much bigger. And no one was expecting it. Whereas with all the other drills the brokers had already discount a large measure of success.

This has to be worth a good few pence all on its own. Unless the news had been leaking over the past few days.

Urraca, yesterday the volume was almost double the usual. To me that says that something is exciting the buyers, but at the same time either that seller is still at it or stale bulls.

The rain in Spain stays mainly in Mimouna. Sorry, I'll get my (rain) coat.

Well what they could do more is find oil and it was the prospect of oil in SD that propelled the SP forward last year! AIUI they'll have another pop for oil in 2019.

Griffin Edison had risked Kelvin at 41%, the same value as Ibn Yunus. But I guess that risking can now be reduced? The risked value of both was about 4p.

Urraca as I was saying last night, the selling was not the puzzle. There's a seller who wants out and the only thing stopping him selling is the availability of buyers. What I thought was interesting was that there was a buyer willing to buy in size before the announcement of the result.

I always assume that half the trades are buys and the other half are sells (roughly speaking).

Here's my 2p, based off nothing at all. There is a seller and there has been for some time. The only thing constraining the seller has been the availability of a willing buyer. Today, for some reason, there was a buyer willing to buy in volume. Whether that buyer knows something is another matter. But I'd doubt small investors would suddenly start buying off the back of no news at all for a well that is not well understood. Buying by mug punters before Ibn Yunus I can understand.

That's interesting WT. I know Circle were not successful in Lalla Mimouna the last time they tried, but I did not know whether SDX were basing their drill off 3D seismic. I agree that the Lalla Mimouna should do more for the SP than the drills so far, based purely off the idea that it will open up a bigger area for subsequent drills. But I don't recall seeing any figures about possible quantities. And I don't think it features in brokers' calculations. May just be a memory problem tho.

wizardtaffy if only some other people recognised what you have, we would not have endless posts about why the SP has not gone up because of a positive result from yet another small Moroccan well.

Lalla Mimouna did not do a lot for Circle and SDX seem ok with leaving that area if these two wells do not come in. There's not a lot in the NAV for them anyway. But if they do come in it opens the possibility of the northern area becoming viable, which should add to reserves. Bear in mind that the drills here do recognise that if the results are good the pipeline will have to be extended, so there's got to be the likelihood of sufficient gas to do that. So a good result here will have a greater impact on the SDX business than the recent drills in Morocco, IMHO.

The podcasts are a net negative IMHO, because anyone who does their research knows that only part of the story is being told. It's still a good story if they told all of it, but because they only cover some, you wonder whether there is something to hide. This is a better podcast than the usual because PW is more candid than usual and kudos to the interviewer who actually asks about risk factors.

Urraca, they said, "Following completion of the Rabul 5 well the Company will move on to the Rabul 4 location, the second of two appraisal wells planned for the Rabul feature this year." Now in a recent video interview PW said that the numbering system is not the order of the drill, but one given by the ministry, so still possible that 3 takes place afterwards. But it is a bit ambiguous as to whether 3 will be drilled at all. After all if you are drilling the second of two ...

In countries like Egypt, it's better that the state and other locals take what seems to be a fair or more than fair share, otherwise you can find ourselves in the position that someone else comes along and takes the whole shooting match. So I am ok with what others call 'robbery', as shareholders the thing to remember is that you can't take the gross numbers at face value - that's all. So how does my logic stand with regards to Morocco where we are making very good money indeed. I've said previously that when you take into account the continuous capex needed to keep the gas flowing the returns are fair. I don't think we're exploiting the locals.

Urraca, obviously I hope you are right. One of the issues I'll be taking up with the company at the AGM is the fact that their official communications could be more explicit and transparent. If he's still expecting to double he should say so. It wouldn't have cost them a cent to use the word double instead of increase. That's how you get serious investors' attention, it's not by constantly popping up on youtube. Rant over.