Member Info for SQ320

Going by ponts made by PW in two recent videos my impression is this. In the latest video he says a good result at Lalla Mimouna 'opens up the northern area' or words to that effect. In the video just before this one, IIRC he says that if the two Lalla M wells don't come in they'll concentrate on the southern portion. As if they'll give up on the north bit of the block. So the next two wells seem to be quite important.

Only problem is that the SD drills this year are for gas. Now they may help propel the SP forward, but a jackpot?

Urraca It says that they want to double production with workovers, but surely these drills are in addition to that? At $65 op, they get netbacks of $24, so 600bopd means 24*600*360*60(tax)=$3m (sorry previous post had a netback calc based on NW Gemsa, which is a lower amount)

I'm not sure that Rabul will move the market and that knowing the results helps PW. The last well got 2500bopd. If this one gets the same, SDX share is 500bopd, which is about $1.5m once you account for tax? Or are these numbers wrong?

Yes, it does seem like a kick in the teeth for the others, unless: 1. In the event of a T/O the CEO and the FD are most likely to get the boot (as I said in a previous post) 2. Everyone else in the Co. recognises that long-term success depends on deal-making and these 2 are instrumental for that.

I posted the figures below earlier. Didn't mention that the bopd figs are gross and it seems as if SDX get 20% of this. In 2016 they produced "3,439 BOPD from Meseda (662 BOPD net to SDX Energy)". Meseda average production H1 2017 3299 Rabul-1 tested at 500bopd Rabul-2 of SDX expectation 2,500bopd. Rabul 5 ?? Rabul 3/4 ?? So we are already able to achieve 6299 bopd. We're getting netbacks of around US$18 a barrel. Anyone fancy a guess at the resulting netbacks?

FWIW if there is good news and the SP goes up in the following weeks/months - the buzz around here will be all positive and anyone recalling today's posts will be called a de-ramper. ;)

AP what about the alternative scenario. That there is an offer for the Co. and PW & the FD are out of a job. This way any acquiror may have to compensate them for the LTIP. Perhaps explains why the explo people aren't included?

I've been through many situations like this. We know it and the BoD know it, if the results in the coming weeks before the AGM are any good and the SP goes up - no one will be complaining, especially not at the AGM.

Smart! Getting in the award at this price and just before the well results. "If the share price growth in the three year period is between a range of 11% pa and 20% pa, the additional number of shares which vest will increase proportionately within this range up to a cap of a multiple of one times the base award number of shares. This cap will be triggered at share price growth of 20% pa or more." So they get double if we have sp growth of 8p, 10p and 12p i.e. if the sp is 74p in 2021. Not sure how that can be called a stretching goal - which is what they claim.

Meseda average production H1 2017 3299 Rabul-1 tested at 500bopd Rabul-2 of SDX expectation 2,500bopd. Rabul 5 ?? Rabul 3/4 ?? So we are already able to achieve 6299 bopd. We're getting netbacks of around US$18 a barrel. Anyone fancy a guess at the resulting netbacks?

I think the netbacks work out better than proportionate to the rise in the oil price. The illustration the company use is that at US$40 oil netbacks are US$8.9, but at US$60 oil price they are US$17.4. So a 50% rise in the oil price means an almost 100% rise in netbacks. The effect tails off at higher oil prices, but around this level it's quite marked. Slide 11 of the Oct 2017 presentation.