Member Info for CrustyPete

Afternoon Aimster,

Just for your information and to illustrate the points that I and bucklerfern were making the other day regarding CFD and their "hedging" a position in the market see the URL below:

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/DDDD/holdings-in-company-8l81x0zh5qfyrgt.html

This is an LSE RNS relating to a position taken by SPREADEX (a CFD and spread betting company) in 4D Pharma that has recently risen above the 3% limit resulting in their having a notifiable interest and, as it happens, their reducing it to just below that 3%. As bucklerfern articulated very well, this position would have been taken by SPREADEX to hedge the NET (long) position taken by their underlying clients in 4D Pharma.

Yes indeed irish David Sefton is a king canute of the highest order.... I would really like to meet him one day just to express my sincere gratitude to him in an appropriate way.

Because Aimster the CFD company (IG index in this instance) will hedge the position in the market. This can result in the CFD company occasionally building a declarable interest in a position. Often at this point (as has been evidenced many times) close their books to further trading in that position.

Not so BG you need a commercial agreement with the Local Governing authority and In Tanzania that means a GSA. 100%. Without one you have ZERO prospect of monetising the asset and so until then it remains a "resource" and not a "reserve".

That will be the difference between a P class reserve and a C class resource ythe difference is then graded on probability or proximity of the reserve or resource. Hence the difference between a C1, C2 or C3 class resource or a P1, P2 or P3 class reserve.

Look it up.

100% correct BF. That is precisely the reason.

The reason for the drop is because of the many investors being forced to sell their CFD's because they can no longer trade them on margin.

For goodness sake BG do you honestly think that I am not aware of what those catalysts might be??! The issue is how do we ensure that we have enough cash in the tank to get us there.... and without significant and harmful dilution? It is going to be a long haul. And yes there are many potential routes but we have been waiting a long time for our Board to give us the answer.

And resources only only become reserves "once the development is accepted and given the go ahead" that means once there is a GSA in place and even then only once there is a reasonable and evident route to market - i.e. a pipeline as matherdj says.

So I hope you are feeling patient BG?

GLA

BG, we had $0.93 of cash or cash equivalents at the half year and much of that will have been spent since. Bridge the gap until when BG? Production or subsequent dilution? Will you be still be around for that fund raise?

POC you seem to be totally missing the point that I am trying to make - how do we get to those sp catalysts POC? Where does the cash come from to cover our £1m overhead? It has already been admitted by our erstwhile CEO that we needed a JV to pay our bills and yet, to date we have heard nothing along these lines. So are we looking at a "placing"? A loan? What is a loan going to be secured against? Will our cornerstone investors bail us out again? What price will they extort from us this time? Is it indeed even in their interests to bail us out? better perhaps to let us go to the wall and pocket our remaining 25% for nothing?

It would be great to await the sp rise before any dilution with a JV or a placing but I suggest that we cannot wait that long.

BG, we have £1m of overhead and without our invoices being paid , a fund raise or a JV partner to pay our bills we won't get to 2022 let alone 2025......

So if that short was closed where was the buying.....?

Yes indeed we would POC but can we wait until 2025 for it?

No.

Maybe they know something that we don't.... something about to appear out of the woodwork?

Morning BG, I would not argue with that BUT, with financing an issue at AEX and the risk (albait small) that they may not live to see the drill or, alternatively, may well require additional fund raise (and dilution) before hand, AEX will always operate at a significant discount to the Ntorya valuation.

Furthermore and as matherdj alludes to, are you yet 100% sure that the scheduled Q1 2022 drill might not yet be further affected by delays in the License extension? Past performance would give cause for doubt and that will affect the valuation.

Will anyone pay SCIR for their 25% until that License Extension is in the bag? And will anyone risk putting significant funds into AEX until then, for similar reasons?

BG, there is a big, big difference between $20million of cash and $20m of credit (or even $35m), so I do not believe the comparison is a relevant one.... we can't spend it! If only we could, we would be able to guarantee to keep the lights on until beyond the drill ;0)

I have circa 40,000 4D at price between £0.35 and £1.63 but. thankfully with an average at £0.52p. I have been adding every few weeks but think that will stop at prices significantly higher than they are now.

Exactly that Matt and who knows where that might be......

And Matherdj, yes I agree - but, who knows, maybe, just maybe the AEX BOD, for once in their life, will under promise and overdeliver .... albeit by a mere one or two weeks.

It would hardly compensate for the over promising of a Q1 2021 drill methinks :0)

bucklerfern - I could not agree with you more and it will be very interesting to see what, if anything, they come up with regard to the issues you highlight. If, as usual, we simply get vague, woolly references I think we can safely conclude that nothing will be happening on that score in the foreseeable future.

It comes as absolutely no surprise to me that the SCIR corporate presentation makes absolutely no mention of any of the topics you refer to BF, which as SCIR is a KN1 JV partner, beneficiary of the "receivables" and a party to any discussion in these areas speaks volumes methinks.

So, in short BF I am expecting nothing meaningful on any of them.

highlandmatt I am not sure that my reading of the Scirocco presentation is the same as yours. It states that the rig will be mobilised in Q3 2021 - now of course Q3 could mean July or it could mean September but, assuming September, that would suggest to me that we could see a December drill (consistent with timing of previous drills) - so yes maybe 2021 for spudding but still consistent with the Q1 2022 target, to all meaningful intents and purposes - certainly for results. The good news is that we may see a good influx of money from the "rainbow chasers" in the run up to the drill. So maybe a good Q4 in that respect.

All of those are possibilities BF but so too have they been possibilities for some considerable time now and we have seen no movement on nay of them to date. I see no reason to think that any of them are likely to happen in the short to medium term. Hope? Yes Expect? No

Highlandmatt speaking personally I am going to sit tight but for no obvious reason and suspect that I might well live to regret it. I was inclined to sell a significant holding after the F/O approval but didn't have the courage of my convictions. I should indeed use the capital tied up in AEX to invest in other things for the next 9 months but having missed the opportunity to sell at 1.2 - 1.5p cannot bring myself to do so now. Unfortunately all my shares are in tax wrappers so cannot even use the losses for CGT purposes. Further consideration is that with my holding I would only be able to liquidate at a significant discount to the current bid price methinks; unless I am prepared to sit in front of the screen for days on end and drip them out at opportune moments and, frankly, I have better things to do.

I see no obvious reason to think that there will be any significant sp catalyst between now and Q4 this year but at the current price the biggest risk of sitting tight is purely the "opportunity cost" and there is no guarantee that those opportunities will fare any better!