General observations and questions28 Dec 2023 21:05
Hi all. Thanks for previous posts which I’ve found helpful. I’m a private prospective investor who knows a little about forests but little about FSF. Some points I’d appreciate thoughts on:
1. How do you view the board member share purchases in December - promising sign or desperate effort to pull up share price?
2. The company suggests its share price decline is in line with other investment trust declines and not anomalous?
3. They use a backward looking valuation not a DCF approach. Is this conservative or optimistic? I wonder what NAV a DCF would give?
4. Their carbon income projections seem partly dependent on them retaining future carbon rights from timberland sales. But I note this concept of separated carbon rights is unproven, for FSF at least.
5. I note you’ve suggested a timetable for monetising assets will be helpful. It would be nice to know when they expect their first sale or timber harvest to occur.
6. Some Scottish plantation managers have been criticised for spruce monoculture’s adverse impacts on biodiversity and communities. From a biodiversity perspective I’d like to see at least 20% ideally 33% native broadleaf. Also preferable for the broadleaf areas to be for high value long term timber - as well as nature.
7. I note they have only £3m cash so future acquisitions seem challenging given expensive debt facility. They could issue more shares but previous experiences I had with dilution on another stock impacted my returns substantially.
8. There have been promising outcomes from latest COP which appear to have been reflected in EU ETS prices.
I realise these are points which the company need to answer but I’d appreciate any insights on these, or additional questions people may have!
Cheers