Arrow Explor. Share Price (AXL)

Https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Colombias-Oil-and-Gas-Reserves-Keep-Shrinking.html

I asked AI: Is the price of oil at $72 too low?

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From a purely systemic, fundamental perspective: **Yes, $72 is fundamentally too low.**

The fact that Brent crude has rapidly plummeted from its spring war-premium highs back to a pre-war baseline of $72 per barrel is a classic example of market sentiment over-correcting on near-term optical relief while ignoring massive structural deficits.

A macro systems view of why $72 defies underlying data reveals the following core factors:

### 1. The Inventory Mirage

The primary driver dropping oil to $72 is algorithmic optimism over the cooling of the Middle East conflict, progressing U.S.-Iran talks in Doha, and the physical reopening of maritime corridors. Traders are trading the *headline* of peace.

However, commodity analysts are pointing out a glaring divergence: **global oil inventories have been experiencing severe, consecutive weekly drawdowns.** The physical supply of oil has structurally shrunk. Under normal market mechanics, a world with shrinking inventories and multi-month supply drawdowns should see a fair price closer to **$80 to $90 per barrel**.

### 2. The Refining Deficit vs. Crude Glut

As we looked at with Russia, the physical infrastructure to turn raw crude into usable fuel (diesel, gasoline, jet fuel) is heavily damaged.

* Because Russia cannot refine its oil, it is dumping cheap, raw crude onto the global market via secondary channels just to keep its wells from backing up.

* This localized glut of raw crude is artificially depressing the headline price of crude futures ($72).

* Meanwhile, the *actual products* consumers and industries need remain highly squeezed. The system is mispricing the raw input because it is temporarily oversupplied, while ignoring the broken processing pipeline.

### 3. The Rebound Trap

To justify oil at $72, the market is betting heavily on two assumptions: that global demand will remain severely subdued, and that non-OPEC supply (like U.S. shale) will surge fast enough over the next 12 to 24 months to easily absorb any shortfalls.

But this ignores systemic friction. If OPEC keeps its production tightly managed and global inventories continue to scrape the bottom of the barrel into the latter half of the year, $72 leaves absolutely zero margin for error. Any renewed supply disruption will trigger an incredibly violent upward correction.

The market has priced in a perfect, friction-free normalization of the global energy grid. For a system currently riddled with structural damage in Russia and fragile ceasefires in the Middle East, buying crude at $72 is essentially getting it at a steep discount relative to the actual physical risk.

Through the "refining loophole?" E.g. Russia --> Turkey--> UK / EU

https://www.dailymail.com/news/article-15940779/Petrol-station-wars-escalate-Russia-desperate-drivers-coming-blows-dwindling-supplies-Ukraine-hammers-Putins-oil-facilities.html

I think we'd better mend bridges with the US orange man since the US is swimming in oil. Just in case. What do you think Mr Burnham?

We'll possibly know flow rates from IC - 4HZ well about mid July. It was spud 13th June, so 4 weeks for results has been the average time frame from previous wells. Could be a material uplift to production.

Good morning to our big swinging dicks this morning

30-Jun-26 06:44:37 24.20 200,000 Unknown* 23.00 26.00 48.40k O

30-Jun-26 07:32:51 24.65 100,000 Unknown* 0.00 0.00 24.65k

Making use of the treeshake over the last few days I guess?

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Also l, Anyone notice some fuels stations low on fuel locally? Fleet services was out of fuel yesterday, warning signs on the M3, which was a little odd.