Alpha Group International Share Price (ALPH)

To put some more "colour" on the premium over the 01-May closing price, i.e. the day before the offer was made, TP ICAP's closing price that day was 255.50p. Yesterday's close, with no bid, was 311.50p, a gain of ~ 22%. TP ICAP operates in a similar market place, and both share prices (but not the underlying core businesses) were adversely affected (by the general market sell-off) following the US stance on tariffs.

Applying that 22% gain to ALPH, and you get a price of c. £33.50. Measured against that price, the bid premium drops to 27% - hardly exceptional to gain full control of a company, and one which is generating substantial cash year-on-year and has zero debt. This looks an absolute steal for Corpay Inc.

Will a rival bid emerge? Potential interested parties have had plenty of time to work out what a fair price and also a maximum price might look like. Alternatively, hopefully a sufficient number of the larger institutional holders do not back the take-over at this price. For sure, the price will retrace, possibly below £30 per share, but in the long-run (five to ten years), I feel strongly that they will be rewarded for their patience.

What would be helpful is for ALPH to publish a trading update for the last half-year, which they have done in the past at this time (check RNSs). That way, shareholders will be in a much better position to judge for themselves whether a sale price of £42.50 is "fair" or is fundamentally undervaluing the company, rather than relying on the Board (who, do not forget, have their own interests to consider - e.g. positions on the main board, etc.??).

Well not quite the £43 I was hoping for at a min.

It’s good but not great imo.

Have sold a few but may sit on majority and wait and see what occurs… not sure.

Unlikely a rival bid will come in but not impossible….

It’s a bit sad as this had real potential imo to be really big for us all. However bird in hand and all that…

Am disappointed, to be honest. Not sure that it is such a "fair" value. The premiums cited reflect, in part, weakness caused by the "tariff tantrum". earlier in the year. And that presupposes that it was already "fairly" valued.

For all the reasons outlined in an earlier post (and I could add more), the likelihood of the market cap hitting £10 bn within ten-years, is not entirely without merit.

As such, I hope a rival bid is lodged. But we shall see .... Or, that it does not hit the 75% approval rate, but sadly, I have no doubt that the major shareholders have been sounded out as to what price they would accept (shame that Berkshire Hathaway do not have a sizable holding, as this company ticks so many of their investment criteria boxes).

I'll probably hold on a little while to see if there's any chance of an other bid, but it does look like it's a done deal, so likely I'll sell in the market rather than wait months for a few more pence when the deal completes.

This may be going cheap… I wonder if in spite of the board approved offer there may be another bid.